Friday, May 15, 2020

Is God The Richest & The most Selfish being on the planet?

The Fragile ground, God's been occupying for 5000 yrs

Human Race and all other living beings were pretty much content with foraging sleeping and procreating for millions of years till God arrived and changed every single order that existed since last 2 million years, made us all useless, allowed us to comfort and bask in the warmth of its existence and the proverbial eye that it kept on us.

We Human Beings found solace in our hopes and beliefs because our focus shifted from the just the next meal and safety from adversaries & superior animals in food chain, to future comforts, education, aspirations, ambitions, greed, career, outperformance among the same species (highly characterised among the human beings of the present day mostly measured by solitaires and purses among women and cars and homes among men).

For the longest period of time we found comfort in deriding and under-appreciating Darwin and refused to believe that the fittest survive and organisms evolve and the weak perish. Because God came in between. As God was really the ultimate saviour from all known and unknown perils so far.

And God took advantage !!

The politics of white smoke over The Vatican, the hindu belief of karma etc, Islamic belief of shahada sanat zakat sawm hajj all made the human mankind dependant on the emotional crutches of the mind and faith and belief in the unknown and unseen.

All this while, in the human memory (average life span 70 years and active memory 50 years) people remembered what was convenient and passed on what was even more convenient. And God survived and thrived because we became slaves of the future aspirations for ourselves, for our progeny and started believing in God as the protector and the provider.

God has also been terribly lucky for an infinitely long time. Everything that is known to and seen by man has a limited lifespan. Take the strongest of edifices, the largest of corporations, beliefs and ideologies – irrespective of the robustness in those times - these had limited longevity. The largest corporations have hardly been able to survive more than a hundred years, East India Company was really more an Empire rather than a company and yet perished.

And God lasted the longest !!

Because humanity never lost faith.

Divide and rule came to be believed to be more of a modern day adage but it always existed. It always was what drove the world based on difference of opinions and beliefs and created just about enough conflict to maintain a balance in-spite of the religious holy wars. And agree or not, different Gods, through their self anointed representatives, tried hard to use this tool to control their respective fiefdoms.

Vagaries of nature in the form of Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Diseases, Floods, Droughts were never global, so-far, and we could always blame on the collective karma of the region.

The Tsunami of 2004, the hurricane Katrina (even though hurricane Galveston of 1900 was the most severe) were all severe but isolated events and we humans spared a thought for the fellow humans who lost their lives and were in the middle of such adversity but moved on with our lives the next day as the world moved on and the global economic engine moved efficiently. Deaths owing to these adversities became sad statics after a while.

Corona perhaps is the most secular event that has ever happened to Earth and all the purveyors of religion stand exposed because while the world waits for the vaccine to be discovered (which some say, is 18 months to 5 yrs away) the Gods have abandoned their posts, through which they used to instil hope and fear, and are suddenly missing in action.

Why else could such a scale of trouble not be sorted out by God. Most of us have resigned to our deservingness bias or the Just-World theory because “God is Great”

But one hypothesis definitely stands theorised – “God is only our fair weather friend”

Because the rapidity with which God deserted the guardianship of human race, its own places of worship is rather alarming. I was surprised recently, that the representative/incarnation of God was too angry to shake hands with a young lady.

Now lets look at the God’s PnL and Balance Sheet

Between the top religious organisations (links to research on their assumed wealth below) this is one corporation of religions that seems to enjoy all authority and no responsibility. Sift through the articles and the God’s (all of theirs) Balance Sheet could well be over 50 trillion dollars. About 2-3 years of USof A ‘s GDP.

This is just the declared wealth. In addition to available data, each of the top 50 religious places of worship earn over 150 million dollars each per annum. A temple in India annually earns about 27 million US $ from just the sale of human hair that are given there as offering.

Bottom line – These numbers are staggeringly unfathomable. And enough to remove all miseries from the planet.

The Associations, Trusts and Bodies that control these religious institutions should now rise to the occasion and open their coffers and allow the vast quantum of wealth collected from the contributions of the very people who are in peril.

Governments through their powers must exercise their right to make these religious organisations responsible, in the national interest, for the greater good of humanity and nations. National treasures must be used and monetised to manage national and global calamities. The gold reserves of religious institutions that are off balance sheet items, off the reserves of the central banks of respective countries across the planet must be used to alleviate the suffering (financial and hunger and medical)

Why else are we all paying annual premiums (through our pilgrimages and offerings) to God if it’s not buying the mankind any insurance.

God isn’t represented by a place, person, shape or festival. God is and should be a way of life, conduct character and compassion towards the beautiful planet and its habitants, where we got a chance to 'BE'.

"Rise up Oh dear God and demonstrate Your benevolence and open up Your coffers, for You haven’t been on a more slippery slope in over 5000 years."





References


Sunday, May 3, 2020

What Indian Kings and Leaders have in common - “Keep’m Poor!"


As I saw Sengar walking out of the court with a despicable smirk on his ugly face, his expression said “I might have committed the most heinous crime but this is a minor blip and I will soon be back – because in India “Sab Chalta Hai”. How I wish and pray someone had done a Hyderabad on him.

And that smirk has pretty much defined the character of this nation. Whether its corruption , conduct of politicians and citizens alike, getting away with proverbial murder or whatever…..


So as my dear friend, prolific and thought leader par excellence - Andy Mukherjee recommends article after article, ways to take this country out of an economic malaise through large spends on development, in all three scenarios of BC DC AC (Before During After Corona), I beg to disagree with his positivism and audacity of hope, as large part of every Initiative, Govt spending, Tax collection, Infra spend, gets diluted and withered away to land into the pockets of corrupt stakeholders at all levels thereby depriving every single citizen of India – A truly morally and ethically clean nation. And any strategy fulcrummed on a spend centric evolution is most likely to be withered away or land where the tax dollars mustn’t.


Abraham Lincoln s Gettysburg speech in 1863 has been a bedrock of ideology of every democratic nation on this planet, but few nations have been able to follow / imbibe it in its true spirit. Most have just lost the opportunity of implementing true democracy.

Societies that establish democracy on the bedrock of truthfulness and discipline (Singapore) – flourish, but societies that use democracy as a fundamental right to abuse the system and to get away with everything, neither deserve the luxuries of a democracy not would they be able to imbibe a degree of conduct that is expected for a democracy to flourish and function.

Let me endeavour to address a few points that frustrates a middle-class/educated Indian & that are reflective of the state of a nation. And how in the AC (After Corona) world the moral compass of humans and nations could change for the better. But that cannot happen if we don’t recognise and acknowledge the real virus plaguing the deepest innards of our character.

Corruption
In my mind corruption is the most debilitating virus that has embedded in the soul of the nation and if it drains an average of 10% to the Mr. 10 %’s of the nation we are looking at an average annual loss/leakage of approx. 200-250 Billion USD. I am still reminded of a gentleman named Madhu Koda many many years ago (I am not even sure whether he is alive or dead) who in a mere few months of being in power allegedly amassed thousands of crores of wealth through abuse of power. Compare that to an ignorable flutter when a few MPs in the British Parliament submitted a few parking tickets that were fake and had to resign instantly from their positions. An indiscretion like that would be considered a joke in India – maybe considered a fundamental right.

“If one can get away with something, one will most certainly get away” – and that’s the basic problem with democracy.

State of Infrastructure..
Nations have been judged on the strength of their infrastructure – which has catapulted cities/nations to become the global hub of finance and fulcrum of progress – London Underground and not any intellectual superiority,  is one single catalyst that has catapulted London to become the financial hub of the World.

It is believed that India has a total length of 4.3 million Kms of road network that’s managed by state / central governments. Each KM of road costs approx. 1.4 mill USD for a national highway and about 0.7 mill USD for a feeder road/state highway to construct. At an average of 1 mill USD per km, we are looking at staggering numbers that are being spent on infrastructure – primarily roads. A leakage of a few percentage points (at a general norm of 10%) we are looking at billions of dollars of leakage by junior officers, contractors delivering deficiency of service and quality. (rough estimates peg this at 3-5 Bill USD). Most roads across the country need to go through just one rainy season to get completely eroded. It was shameful in the global media, when a prankster made a video wearing a space suit and what appeared to be craters on moon were in reality a usual road in Bangalore.

And during my world travels, when I end up visiting same areas year after year, I haven’t seen any eroded road even on the usual routes that I travel because roads there – last for years without any maintenance. Why – Because they do their job right as per specifications and as per contract.

Enforcement of Contracts
In one of my jobs, I entered into a registered contract to provide some service to someone. And the other party used my service for a year and reneged on the obligation to pay me for it. Shame on our internal system of judiciary and enforcement of contracts that I, I the last 2 years haven’t been able to even deliver the summons to the other party inspite of all the technological advances of emails WhatsApp text-messages because we are still romanticising the systems of 1900’s of a court official delivering subpoenas and leaving all loopholes to be exploited. A nation where a registered promise cannot be enforced – has no real future and can never enthuse any degree of confidence either in an investor, or an entrepreneur – Because You one get away with everything.

State of PSUs
Someone rightly / clichédly said – Government should never be in the business of business. When Coal India launched its IPO, many many years ago, it was expected to become the most valuable company on the planet at that time. Afterall we were dealing with monopoly, infinite coal reserves (probably the largest in the world) some say enough for another 150 years. Yet Coal india is being operated at the lowest possible level of efficiency. Has destroyed entire shareholder wealth and has seemingly no future. Swaminathan Iyer wrote in the TOI many weeks ago about the inefficiency of Coal India Ltd and the key take away point was – Indian worker produces 0.8 tonnes of coal per man shift compared to Australia that produces 40 tonnes per man shift. In the name of socialism the much earlier Prime Ministers created and concentrated national reserves and treasures as engines of welfare for Politicians, officers and workers at large. If the extraction of coal per person per day cannot be linked to the compensation of the CMD of Coal India and every single of its 300,000 employees – the PSUs will continue to erode taxpayers money and shareholder wealth. It was also the same eminent Mr. Iyer who predicted in Jan 2010 that India will over take China by 2020. Alas it remined a dream that might not come true for another 2 decades….

Some 20 years ago as a 25 yr old manager of a small hotel (at the start of my life) in a small hilly town I would always desire my hotel to be full. I would do all that it took to ensure that every guest who ever checked in would always come back and never go anywhere else. At that time I was keen to get a confirmed business of an Oil PSU to be their designated-hotel for their visiting executives from all over the country. Only to realise, as I overheard during a social gathering, that that PSU has an emotionally watertight contract with a hotel far lower in class and service than mine, because the dealing officer gets approx. 2 lacs a year to renew that contract (Mind You I am talking of year 2000). That year he got a Maruti Zen (a popular car of that time). TVM (Time Value of Money) pegs that amount at about 30 lacs in todays value. Such is the quantum of leakage – All at taxpayers expense.

No wonder how hard You try – even though oil is floating and being thrown away/sold free across the planet, its still selling at over Rs 70 per litre in India. - Inefficient monopolistic OMC’s do churn a profit – But they could churn many times more.

Imagine this is just one instance of one PSU involving one city and one officer. Extrapolate it to the entire country. You would want to shoot Yourself in the head – if You complete that math.

Take the case of Oil PSUs, NALCO, NBCC, HUDCO, SBI, GAIL, BHEL, BEL, etc etc etc. If the respective Minister’s and MD’s salaries were directly linked to the EBIDTA of these companies and to global thumb-rules of performance of similar industries , they would have all done well. But the massive destruction of shareholder wealth slowly orchestrated by the inefficient stakeholders at large has truly eroded the incentive to perform and sowed the seeds of deep-rooted malaise that has seemingly no cure. And it’s ironical that the Govt wants to IPO The Life Corporation of India. Some quarters of financial whiz-kids are gung-ho on LIC IPO. Mark my words today. It’s the biggest disaster waiting to happen and biggest fraud on existing policy holders who are expected to partake in the growth story of Indian economy and its financial markets.

Spare a thought for an average tax paying Indian 
  • 30-40% Income tax
  • 18-28% VAT on everything
  • Pathetic supply chain management resulting in inflation upwards of 6-8% (that’s the real inflation really irrespective of the statisticians claims)
  • Most expensive Fuel in the world – despite of lowest crude prices
  • Accumulated losses of PSUs such as Air India @approx 150 employees per aircraft compared to just about 70 employees per aircraft @indigo – the less said the better about the efficiency and hospitality of Air India
  • Infrastructure worst than what human mind can possibly fathom or fragile human body can bear
  • Public health and public education in shambles that has allowed the private participants (private hospitals and private schools) to emerge and charge obnoxious tariffs for rather mundane services.
If India has to survive the AC era where the likelihood of deflation and depression will hit it like an unexpected Tsunami soon and the futile narratives built around the demographic dividend (youngest population on the planet) have to remain relevant – the character of this nation must change.

Taxation
Social Security / Consistency of salaries and allowances cannot be secured for half the population (Government Employees) by the other half. The recent unsolicited advice by some IRS officers to increase taxes and subjecting incomes / profits to additional COVID cess is both obnoxious and thoughtless and eeks of fascistic mindset while masquerading as communistic in thought processes but sounding more proletariat.

Taxing the very few who are responsible through their capitalistic superiority by taking risks and putting their capital to work should be rewarded for adding economic value to the nation by generating millions of jobs and generating already high taxes that are withered away by inefficiencies at every level with abject neglect of accountability.

On the contrary, rather than taxing anything that moves, all that the Govt needs to do is to allow the corporates to draw a reverse Covid-Cess (from a national corpus created by the Govt to fight these unusual times) that is a percentage of the sum of average taxes paid by the business in the last 5 years or so.
Rather than juggling with a future stimulus that’s impossible to figure out in a complex country like India where the economic engine has come to a grinding halt – Why cant a % of annual taxes paid be returned to the tax payer to alleviate the economic pain.

GST has been a revolutionary reform that reflects the quantum of sale of an organisation. The Govt can easily make a reasonable assumption of the Operating Profit of respective businesses according to their industry and deduct that from the reverse calculation of the revenues and provide that liquidity to enterprises that allows these to survive.

It sounds mighty responsible while sitting on a high horse to say “Dont retrench and don’t enforce a paycut” But can an organisation print/create money? – NO!!

But Governments Can – That’s what Governments are supposed to do while being responsible in good times while collecting tub-full of taxes year after year. And this isn’t the time to worry about Fiscal Deficit as inflation is the last cause of worry when the entire nation is afraid to spend even for basic needs because of the underlying fear of the unknown.

With all the alleged discipline that our policy makers seem to be proud of, we could barely manage a BBB- on our sovereign, does anyone really care if it changes to Junk.??

The stimulus that will save this nation is elusive, and the little flutter that was created so far is 0.8% of the GDP of India whereas USA has already given a stimulus of 12% of GDP and an additional 2.6% of GDP in payroll protection. In rupee terms Indias stimulus amounts Rs.1307 per capita in comparison to approx. Rs 5 Lacs per capita in the US.

The greatest service that our politicians and officers can do right now is:
  • Show up more frequently (great leaders are always there in form and spirit)
  • Demonstrate that You feel the pain of the common man / businessman / taxpayer / who are going through severe economic compression
  • Avoid frivolous, confidence draining statements (Ala IRS officer’s note to revive economy)
  • Find simple ways to give much needed stimulus rather than inventing complex formulas (that will never be perfected). Corporations / Individuals have P&L’s and Balance Sheets – Find ways to just use existing declared data to reverse the debits from these statements
  • Involve Industry leaders (who run real businesses and manage real situations) to tackle this vicious enemy
  • Reach out to political opponents (who are experienced & educated) and shed the walls of partisanship in the face of such adversity
  • And above all let the economic engine NOT STOP under any circumstance. Restarting it would take years
  • And lastly build confidence among us 1.3 billion people. Loss of Confidence kills the spirit to work, aspire, travel, purchase and that deflates an economy like nothing else.

The AC world is going to be far far different than what we are imagining right now. Not one economist / chartist / thought leader has the mental / academic bandwidth to fully model the effect of Corona on our planet – as right now we are still in the middle of a global crisis that’s unravelling.

But Lets get real , lets get going before its too late.


Follow on Twitter 

Friday, April 17, 2020

Difference between Akshay Kumar and Promoters of listed companies masquerading as Philanthropists

Corona Virus is a tragedy, the likes and intensity of which, this planet hasn’t seen in more than 100 years. While this will change the basic behaviour of us humans, in ways that we can’t fully fathom yet, everyone (esp the stalwarts of the industry and more specifically promoters of listed companies) getting sentimental and pouring their hearts and coffers out for the relief measures must remember a few things.

I speak in all humility and with the audacity of hope that this too shall pass and will pass soon enough because of the resilience and intelligence of the human race.

But……

This honest request is to the promoters of those listed companies who are collecting all brownie points and gloating by appearing with pictures/selfies of multi million dollar cheques on TV Channels contributing to the COVID relief funds – in a hope that MOCA (Ministry of Corp Affairs) and PM himself will pardon all their creative accounting jugglery and sins pertaining to corporate governance – spanning years.

The biggest joke was when Yes Bank recently contributed to COVID relief partially at the expense of taxpayers and partially the minority shareholders (lets call them muppets for the purpose of brevity)of SBI. And an amazing thing about all this is that no one calls out this hypocrisy - loud enough.

Some of the top/most respected business houses in India are trying to be the paragons of virtue during these trying times, committing thousands of crores and last drop of wealth etc – while conveniently forgetting that the share prices of their companies are at decadal lows, their business decisions have indebted companies to the extent of tens and tens of billions of dollars, are on verge of defaults on many fronts and have millions of muppets wiped out, and in private domain they are not blinking an eyelid while cutting salaries of staff members across board, of the very people who have stood by them for years/decades.

Yet……………….

It’s the saddest moment in the life of a promoter of a listed company when he fails to protect the capital of a muppet. - as ‘SIMPLE’ as that..

Give with heartful and handful to the cause – Nation needs it most currently than ever before – Nothing wrong in it.
But give whatever - from Your personal net-worth that’s accumulated over years and drawn salaries and perks over long periods of time / ownership – mostly at the cost of the muppet. 
Try not to screw Your own company twice-over.

Because................
  • Most of the listed companies have destroyed wealth over long periods of time
  • Capital markets are financed by muppets/retail shareholders  with a belief that between the capital gains and dividend yields, an investor will earn a significantly larger returns compared to the treasury yields of the country of investment
  • Promoters have no right to treat the company as their piggy bank for personal PR when the muppets are bleeding
  • If a company has even a single penny of debt on its books and the promoters are still desirous of philanthropy, don’t do this at the cost of a muppet as he gets ripped both ways.
  • Have the courage to sell Your wife’s jewellery, or one house in south of France, or a Lamborghini, or a farmhouse in Alibaug / Mahabaleshwar for these noble causes - not the diminishing cash on the Balance Sheet
  • It’s the muppet that services the debt and leakage owing to promoter’s empire building initiatives and efficiency of wealth destruction – as life and lifestyle of the promoter continues to go on as usual irrespective of the global difficulties.
  • In most cases promoters with just a small shareholding control corporations and keep bleeding these thru exorbitant salaries and perks and leakages of gargantuan proportions.
  • Each time promoters use the company coffers for any expense other than enhancement of ROE or ROCE, they are taking away from the muppets to the extent of their share-holdings.
Remember if you give 100 Cr to philanthropy while owning just 50% of the company all of your 'mis'-decisions are being financed by 'ME' and I am paying the balance 50 Cr – ‘THE MINORITY SHAREHOLDER’.

In most of the cases the over-leveraged companies just vanish over  time while leaving a trail of destruction for Shareholders and Financial Institutions.

A law must be put in place where salaries and perks of the promoters of listed companies are a function of ROCE, ROE, Leverage, Dividend Yield and these are the only metrics that will align the interest of the alleged manager with that of the shareholder.

AND

On the other hand its just so profound and Godly what people like Akshay Kumar and many such individuals like him are doing and continue to do for humanitarian causes. These individuals are citizens that make our nation proud and we will forever be in their debt of gratitude. What Akshay does for armed forces, their families and being almost always there to help selflessly is the stuff of the movies – literally. And his latest act of this large contribution to COVID relief is truly remarkable. What he said to his wife moved me “I had nothing when I started and now that I am in this position, how can I hold back from doing whatever I can for those who have nothing”

Look at the life of actors. They are the 100% owners of their enterprise of talent, have limited shelf life, could be out of favor/flavor with just one movie flopping at the Box, are entirely responsible for their personal balance sheets and profitability, carry a 100% Key Person Risk, Yet are among the highest tax payers in the country – as they can’t hide behind the circuitous veils of tax evading corporations and behave like the promoters of these. And inspite of so many risks they truly demonstrate in action and spirit what being a Good Human Being is all about.

Hats off Brother Akshay – More power, steely resolve and long life to You.

And in the meanwhile, can the muppets get their voice and their act together and create a movement against us all being ripped off.

God bless You all and God bless this planet

manu on @twitter
manu on huffingtonpost



Sunday, April 12, 2020

The curious & inexplicable numbers of Avenue Supermarts (D’ Mart)


Every investor on this planet wants to strike as big as Buffett at some point in his life at least once. And this brethren is secular, always researching, thinking calculating and finding that one multi-bagger that would be life changing and altering. This cannot be denied that more money can / has been / could, be made in stock markets than any other asset class. As I write this piece, the evergreen “Gold” is down 4% which is seemingly huge for its safe-haven reputation.

So as Avenue trades at close to 130 times its trailing earnings, (in spite of the market meltdown) and much after and higher than its QIP at INR 2049 per share some numbers do solicit attention and analysis. 

Recently the promoter Sh. Radha Krishna Damani catapulted to be the second richest man in the country second only to Mr. Mukesh Ambani, with Avenue’s MarCap of 20.6 Bill USD, I was intrigued to learn that Avenue has only 200 stores pan-India each store enjoying a MarCap of 103.3 Mill USD. (InR 775 Crores per store)

For the record, Walmart has 11500 (57.5 times Avenue) Stores, does an annual sale of 520 Bn USD (165 times Avenue), and MARCAP of 333 Bill USD (just 16 times Avenue) and trading at a PE of 22 with a Div Yield of approx. 2%

Avenue's Sales grew between FY16/17/18/19/ @ 39%/26%/33%/18% respectively YOY so on an average they grew at 29% YOY and by that run-rate it should be clocking annual sales of 50000 Cr or 6.66 Bill US$ in FY 22-23

The shareholders, of a company that hasn’t decided to start paying dividends inspite of this stellar performance will have to depend on capital appreciation of stock and hypothetically recover their investment in ~130 years (if EPS of Rs. 19.56 was to remain constant).

Now lets look at the numbers:
  • Avenue Has 200 stores
  • Opens for 11 hrs a day approx.
  • If the rush / customer inflow /outflow is on a bell curve pattern, peak operation hrs could be considered at 6-7/day but we still take 11 hrs for the purpose of liberal brevity
  • @23500 Cr of annual rev it does 118 Cr per store per annum
  • Or 32.43 lacs per/day per store
  • And if the store is open for 11 hrs it would be 2.95 lacs  per hr per store
  • And at ticket size of say 1500/customer
  • D’Mart is through putting 196 customers per hour per store in its 11 hr shift
  • Or
  • Say 3.28 customers per minute/store across the entire chain of 200 stores, without a moment’s pause, each customer spending Rs 1500 in a matter of a few mins per till.

That’s a bit of a statistic and efficiency for an Indian company and it reminisces the memories of another company that wanted to sell its mango juice to every Indian and was a market darling of many Mutual Funds and Asset Managers for the longest period of time.

And By Jove, with these numbers and efficiency, Avenue deserves a valuation of 1000 PE and not just 115 because then Jeff Bezos should be applying for a job as an apprentice with Avenue Supermarts.

Investors / Shareholders / Customers if You cannot get out of D'Mart after shopping for a min of Rs. 1500 within 18.29 seconds, You are just wasting someone's time. 

Disclaimer:
No share ever bought in Avenue/No personal interest thru any entity personal or related

Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Case for 'Exuberance' in the times of Uncertainty and Fear


As we see the world rummaging thru the stores scampering for toilet paper its amazing to see how soon the irrational exuberance as late as Jan 2020 has turned to unreasonable fear and collectively, majority of the people become less confident of the future and forget/ignore the resilience and the intelligence of human race.

We Humans aren’t Gods gift to the planet and no different from the virus/es that are attacking us and trying to push us out/away either. But one thing that sets us apart is the refinement in the way we communicate in multitude of languages and the way we have devised languages to talk to machines and vice versa and analyse information/data.

While a billion other species are only struggling to survive and remain fit to procreate, Homo Sapiens have ‘almost’ moved up the value chain as we have been able to push back the concept of natural mortality and nature’s purgatory forces thru dramatic advances in medicine. We can travel faster than our own natural speeds and above all have put another billion species in peril by uncontrolled procreation and taking over the space of others.

Introspection can continue to happen to reflect on our alleged pace of futile progress, the fact also remains that Corona is just a blip in the history of mankind. The planet has been plagued by multitude of vicissitudes over centuries and the fittest have always survived. The Malthusian Theory of Population and food growth is likely to self-correct the populations over long period of time and while we may continue to call this China Virus or whatever, the humanity has brought this upon itself and this is likely to disappear as rapidly as it emerged and created a havoc.

Not only are some of our nations dogmatic and doctrinated – the ones that have taken it upon themselves to cleanse this planet on basis of ethnicity starting from Hitler or Saddam etc but even Homo Sapiens are being cleansed by the planet and its forces – Call it God, Nature or whatever and that’s how time will be reset and excesses in the name of progress will be deflated to maintain the equilibrium of this planet. In economic terms it’s called reversion to mean.

So while everyone around us is calling out this outlier event to be a doomsday, and hypothetically even if it was to wipe out majority of the entire human race, it would still be a blip in the 4 billion years of the planets probable history.

So whats the point….
  1. We have very little control on how the planet / mother earth operates and reacts
  2. The fittest will survive and thrive
  3. Momentary setbacks cannot be allowed to convert temporary pain - permanent
  4. The economic sudden stop is brutal but is still temporary
  5. The naysayers will be taken by surprise and trapped the moment Mr. Corona disappears – which it will
  6. Progress is the only constant – Keep moving, learning and improvising
  7. The old processes, traditions and beliefs will become irrelevant – humans and corporations will be required to be more nimble and dextrous.
  8. As we see that everything self-corrects, excesses by us humans will stand corrected and everything will revert to mean
  9. If adversity strikes and kills you – you are lucky – but if you survive – make sure You definitely emerge a winner on the other side (the meaning of winning will differ for different people)
  10. The lockdown is a God-sent opportunity to appreciate silence, chirping of birds, respect the things that you wouldn’t / couldn’t give a damn about
  11. Acknowledge that you really need very little for a contended life
  12. Be conscious of an apocalypse to make you humble – but be hopeful that that might never happen
  13. Treat your employer as your God – remember he is underwriting all risks
  14. Step out into Ur balcony and breathe consciously- appreciate that Oxygen available isn’t to be taken for granted
  15. Find time to forgive or seek forgiveness – its liberating
  16. Opportunities to learn, invest, evolve only show up in adverse times – don’t miss these
  17. At the end of each day try and be a shade wiser thru personal experiences or learnings from others – so Read Read and Read even more
  18. Be soft on yourself by judging yourself on the measure of your intent, conduct and character and not the car you drive or the 'zeroes' in your bank accounts
  19. Treat others as you would like yourself to be treated
  20. Believe in “This too shall pass”

And lastly
Remember that all the successes and failures of yesterday concern us no more and all the unknowns of tomorrow concern us not yet. So….

Get busy livin’ or get busy dyin’

Because this Corona is temporary but the power of human resilience and resolve is permanent.

twitter @manurishiguptha

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Corona May be The Biggest Blessing in Disguise for Humanity


As Lenin famously quoted – There are decades where nothing happens and there are weeks where decades happen. The start of the year of Rat as per the Chinese Zodiac turned out to be uneventful and 2020 was supposed to bring prosperity, progress, fertility and be lucky for all other signs too.

Early-Feb 2020, Corona had just about started to grip China and the rest of the world thought it to be more or less a china problem and a handful of senior global leaders (who pretty much write the destiny of the rest of the 7.5 Billion of us) were still talking about trade wars and trade imbalances, ideological differences on the basis of religion/military and finance leading to deadly conflicts and business houses/businessmen gloating on the stock prices of their companies being at lifetime high and designated as one or the other richest in their country/region/world,numerically  and then…..

…. Before anyone could say Jack Robinson, in less than 2 weeks this little virus (now popularly called the China-Virus by the POTUS, and so will I, till the Chinese stop eating anything that moves) created havoc by spreading like a wild fire across the globe thereby bringing down the alleged edifices of financial, intellectual, scientific, military and historical supremacy over each other in less than 10 days. The global supply chains that we have been so proud of in the name of industrial/trade revolution have come to a sudden stop. And we cant do shit about it.

So much for the conflicts, divisions and havoc that we created in the name of progress – that humanity stands naked at the precipice of a bottomless abyss.

Never ever since the advent of humanity and its recorded history has the world been so genuinely secular and united just to be able to survive and save itself from this cataclysm and everyone only worrying about the most primordial need of Food, Shelter, Clothing and Procreation. And everyone is wishing well for everyone else just to ensure self-preservation.

Ask Trudeau’s wife or Tom Hanks - both would give their Power / Oscar just to be able to recover fully. Ask the top 10 richest people on this planet – would they give everything away just to be able to save their most loved one from this Virus if needed??

Industrial revolution and relentless pursuit of profit (aka capitalism or need to establish supremacy on just the metric of wealth) has successfully destroyed what took a billion + years to get created. Take fossil fuels, natural reserves, rivers, glaciers – we have sorted everything out in less than 150 odd years and now we are wondering why and from where Mr. Corona struck humanity.

It’s the mother earth taking back its lost ground from us – homo sapiens – who started believing themselves to be the most superior race. Imagine a moment that all the money and the glory and the popularity isn’t able to buy You Your next meal because You have to forage for it just like the old times.

Humbling – Isnt it?

Videos and Fotos doing rounds on the internet show that just a few days of forced restraint on us wise homo sapiens has healed the planet of its pollution, air is cleaner (thereby removing carcinogens), rivers have fish again and animals aren’t afraid anymore and above all the endangered pangolins and bats in China are heaving a sigh of relief.

All that we need to remember is, that the shriek of a fellow cohabitant (animals, resources, poor/rich, fortunate/unfortunate) is all the same in the face of adversity. We humans have been too damn lucky for too damn long and have taken advantage of our respective situations.

Corona and many such challenges will come and go but let’s not lose the lesson that mother earth had to impose upon us so brutally. Ol’Kenny’s words, as he left us just 4 days ago, will continue to resonate always -  “But in his final words I found an ace that I could keep” – Let these profound words not go waste and learn the lessons that we must.

And I believe that this reset is an opportunity for mankind to find its soul lost in the morass of greed, corruption, one-upmanship and destruction of our beautiful planet in the garb of progress.

The choice is entirely ours!

@manurishiguptha

Tuesday, February 11, 2020

How Will You Measure Your Life

Since I am personally fond of writing and penning my thoughts as an active blogger, I have never been a fan of producing anything verbatim. But Clay Christensen s article from Harvard Business Review, below, is a lethal combination of philosophy, Corporate Conduct, Prioritisation, life lessons and above all refreshingly different from the humdrum of infinitely large supply of gyaan available on the net. I wanted this to be a permanent part of my timeline – Do read, leave a comment and share if You please.

Before I published The Innovator’s Dilemma, I got a call from Andrew Grove, then the chairman of Intel. He had read one of my early papers about disruptive technology, and he asked if I could talk to his direct reports and explain my research and what it implied for Intel. Excited, I flew to Silicon Valley and showed up at the appointed time, only to have Grove say, “Look, stuff has happened. We have only 10 minutes for you. Tell us what your model of disruption means for Intel.” I said that I couldn’t—that I needed a full 30 minutes to explain the model, because only with it as context would any comments about Intel make sense. Ten minutes into my explanation, Grove interrupted: “Look, I’ve got your model. Just tell us what it means for Intel.”

I insisted that I needed 10 more minutes to describe how the process of disruption had worked its way through a very different industry, steel, so that he and his team could understand how disruption worked. I told the story of how Nucor and other steel minimills had begun by attacking the lowest end of the market—steel reinforcing bars, or rebar—and later moved up toward the high end, undercutting the traditional steel mills.

When I finished the minimill story, Grove said, “OK, I get it. What it means for Intel is…,” and then went on to articulate what would become the company’s strategy for going to the bottom of the market to launch the Celeron processor.

I’ve thought about that a million times since. If I had been suckered into telling Andy Grove what he should think about the microprocessor business, I’d have been killed. But instead of telling him what to think, I taught him how to think—and then he reached what I felt was the correct decision on his own.

That experience had a profound influence on me. When people ask what I think they should do, I rarely answer their question directly. Instead, I run the question aloud through one of my models. I’ll describe how the process in the model worked its way through an industry quite different from their own. And then, more often than not, they’ll say, “OK, I get it.” And they’ll answer their own question more insightfully than I could have.

My class at HBS is structured to help my students understand what good management theory is and how it is built. To that backbone I attach different models or theories that help students think about the various dimensions of a general manager’s job in stimulating innovation and growth. In each session we look at one company through the lenses of those theories—using them to explain how the company got into its situation and to examine what managerial actions will yield the needed results.

On the last day of class, I ask my students to turn those theoretical lenses on themselves, to find cogent answers to three questions: First, how can I be sure that I’ll be happy in my career? Second, how can I be sure that my relationships with my spouse and my family become an enduring source of happiness? Third, how can I be sure I’ll stay out of jail? Though the last question sounds lighthearted, it’s not. Two of the 32 people in my Rhodes scholar class spent time in jail. Jeff Skilling of Enron fame was a classmate of mine at HBS. These were good guys—but something in their lives sent them off in the wrong direction.

As the students discuss the answers to these questions, I open my own life to them as a case study of sorts, to illustrate how they can use the theories from our course to guide their life decisions.

One of the theories that gives great insight on the first question—how to be sure we find happiness in our careers—is from Frederick Herzberg, who asserts that the powerful motivator in our lives isn’t money; it’s the opportunity to learn, grow in responsibilities, contribute to others, and be recognized for achievements. I tell the students about a vision of sorts I had while I was running the company I founded before becoming an academic. In my mind’s eye I saw one of my managers leave for work one morning with a relatively strong level of self-esteem. Then I pictured her driving home to her family 10 hours later, feeling unappreciated, frustrated, underutilized, and demeaned. I imagined how profoundly her lowered self-esteem affected the way she interacted with her children. The vision in my mind then fast-forwarded to another day, when she drove home with greater self-esteem—feeling that she had learned a lot, been recognized for achieving valuable things, and played a significant role in the success of some important initiatives. I then imagined how positively that affected her as a spouse and a parent. My conclusion: Management is the most noble of professions if it’s practiced well. No other occupation offers as many ways to help others learn and grow, take responsibility and be recognized for achievement, and contribute to the success of a team. More and more MBA students come to school thinking that a career in business means buying, selling, and investing in companies. That’s unfortunate. Doing deals doesn’t yield the deep rewards that come from building up people.

I want students to leave my classroom knowing that.

Create a Strategy for Your Life
A theory that is helpful in answering the second question—How can I ensure that my relationship with my family proves to be an enduring source of happiness?—concerns how strategy is defined and implemented. Its primary insight is that a company’s strategy is determined by the types of initiatives that management invests in. If a company’s resource allocation process is not managed masterfully, what emerges from it can be very different from what management intended. Because companies’ decision-making systems are designed to steer investments to initiatives that offer the most tangible and immediate returns, companies shortchange investments in initiatives that are crucial to their long-term strategies.

Over the years I’ve watched the fates of my HBS classmates from 1979 unfold; I’ve seen more and more of them come to reunions unhappy, divorced, and alienated from their children. I can guarantee you that not a single one of them graduated with the deliberate strategy of getting divorced and raising children who would become estranged from them. And yet a shocking number of them implemented that strategy. The reason? They didn’t keep the purpose of their lives front and center as they decided how to spend their time, talents, and energy.

It’s quite startling that a significant fraction of the 900 students that HBS draws each year from the world’s best have given little thought to the purpose of their lives. I tell the students that HBS might be one of their last chances to reflect deeply on that question. If they think that they’ll have more time and energy to reflect later, they’re nuts, because life only gets more demanding: You take on a mortgage; you’re working 70 hours a week; you have a spouse and children.

For me, having a clear purpose in my life has been essential. But it was something I had to think long and hard about before I understood it. When I was a Rhodes scholar, I was in a very demanding academic program, trying to cram an extra year’s worth of work into my time at Oxford. I decided to spend an hour every night reading, thinking, and praying about why God put me on this earth. That was a very challenging commitment to keep, because every hour I spent doing that, I wasn’t studying applied econometrics. I was conflicted about whether I could really afford to take that time away from my studies, but I stuck with it—and ultimately figured out the purpose of my life.

Doing deals doesn’t yield the deep rewards that come from building up people.

Had I instead spent that hour each day learning the latest techniques for mastering the problems of autocorrelation in regression analysis, I would have badly misspent my life. I apply the tools of econometrics a few times a year, but I apply my knowledge of the purpose of my life every day. It’s the single most useful thing I’ve ever learned. I promise my students that if they take the time to figure out their life purpose, they’ll look back on it as the most important thing they discovered at HBS. If they don’t figure it out, they will just sail off without a rudder and get buffeted in the very rough seas of life. Clarity about their purpose will trump knowledge of activity-based costing, balanced scorecards, core competence, disruptive innovation, the four Ps, and the five forces.

My purpose grew out of my religious faith, but faith isn’t the only thing that gives people direction. For example, one of my former students decided that his purpose was to bring honesty and economic prosperity to his country and to raise children who were as capably committed to this cause, and to each other, as he was. His purpose is focused on family and others—as mine is.

The choice and successful pursuit of a profession is but one tool for achieving your purpose. But without a purpose, life can become hollow.

Allocate Your Resources
Your decisions about allocating your personal time, energy, and talent ultimately shape your life’s strategy.

I have a bunch of “businesses” that compete for these resources: I’m trying to have a rewarding relationship with my wife, raise great kids, contribute to my community, succeed in my career, contribute to my church, and so on. And I have exactly the same problem that a corporation does. I have a limited amount of time and energy and talent. How much do I devote to each of these pursuits?

Allocation choices can make your life turn out to be very different from what you intended. Sometimes that’s good: Opportunities that you never planned for emerge. But if you misinvest your resources, the outcome can be bad. As I think about my former classmates who inadvertently invested for lives of hollow unhappiness, I can’t help believing that their troubles relate right back to a short-term perspective.

When people who have a high need for achievement—and that includes all Harvard Business School graduates—have an extra half hour of time or an extra ounce of energy, they’ll unconsciously allocate it to activities that yield the most tangible accomplishments. And our careers provide the most concrete evidence that we’re moving forward. You ship a product, finish a design, complete a presentation, close a sale, teach a class, publish a paper, get paid, get promoted. In contrast, investing time and energy in your relationship with your spouse and children typically doesn’t offer that same immediate sense of achievement. Kids misbehave every day. It’s really not until 20 years down the road that you can put your hands on your hips and say, “I raised a good son or a good daughter.” You can neglect your relationship with your spouse, and on a day-to-day basis, it doesn’t seem as if things are deteriorating. People who are driven to excel have this unconscious propensity to underinvest in their families and overinvest in their careers—even though intimate and loving relationships with their families are the most powerful and enduring source of happiness.

If you study the root causes of business disasters, over and over you’ll find this predisposition toward endeavors that offer immediate gratification. If you look at personal lives through that lens, you’ll see the same stunning and sobering pattern: people allocating fewer and fewer resources to the things they would have once said mattered most.

Create a Culture
There’s an important model in our class called the Tools of Cooperation, which basically says that being a visionary manager isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. It’s one thing to see into the foggy future with acuity and chart the course corrections that the company must make. But it’s quite another to persuade employees who might not see the changes ahead to line up and work cooperatively to take the company in that new direction. Knowing what tools to wield to elicit the needed cooperation is a critical managerial skill.

The theory arrays these tools along two dimensions—the extent to which members of the organization agree on what they want from their participation in the enterprise, and the extent to which they agree on what actions will produce the desired results. When there is little agreement on both axes, you have to use “power tools”—coercion, threats, punishment, and so on—to secure cooperation. Many companies start in this quadrant, which is why the founding executive team must play such an assertive role in defining what must be done and how. If employees’ ways of working together to address those tasks succeed over and over, consensus begins to form. MIT’s Edgar Schein has described this process as the mechanism by which a culture is built. Ultimately, people don’t even think about whether their way of doing things yields success. They embrace priorities and follow procedures by instinct and assumption rather than by explicit decision—which means that they’ve created a culture. Culture, in compelling but unspoken ways, dictates the proven, acceptable methods by which members of the group address recurrent problems. And culture defines the priority given to different types of problems. It can be a powerful management tool.

In using this model to address the question, How can I be sure that my family becomes an enduring source of happiness?, my students quickly see that the simplest tools that parents can wield to elicit cooperation from children are power tools. But there comes a point during the teen years when power tools no longer work. At that point parents start wishing that they had begun working with their children at a very young age to build a culture at home in which children instinctively behave respectfully toward one another, obey their parents, and choose the right thing to do. Families have cultures, just as companies do. Those cultures can be built consciously or evolve inadvertently.

If you want your kids to have strong self-esteem and confidence that they can solve hard problems, those qualities won’t magically materialize in high school. You have to design them into your family’s culture—and you have to think about this very early on. Like employees, children build self-esteem by doing things that are hard and learning what works.

Avoid the “Marginal Costs” Mistake
We’re taught in finance and economics that in evaluating alternative investments, we should ignore sunk and fixed costs, and instead base decisions on the marginal costs and marginal revenues that each alternative entails. We learn in our course that this doctrine biases companies to leverage what they have put in place to succeed in the past, instead of guiding them to create the capabilities they’ll need in the future. If we knew the future would be exactly the same as the past, that approach would be fine. But if the future’s different—and it almost always is—then it’s the wrong thing to do.

This theory addresses the third question I discuss with my students—how to live a life of integrity (stay out of jail). Unconsciously, we often employ the marginal cost doctrine in our personal lives when we choose between right and wrong. A voice in our head says, “Look, I know that as a general rule, most people shouldn’t do this. But in this particular extenuating circumstance, just this once, it’s OK.” The marginal cost of doing something wrong “just this once” always seems alluringly low. It suckers you in, and you don’t ever look at where that path ultimately is headed and at the full costs that the choice entails. Justification for infidelity and dishonesty in all their manifestations lies in the marginal cost economics of “just this once.”

I’d like to share a story about how I came to understand the potential damage of “just this once” in my own life. I played on the Oxford University varsity basketball team. We worked our tails off and finished the season undefeated. The guys on the team were the best friends I’ve ever had in my life. We got to the British equivalent of the NCAA tournament—and made it to the final four. It turned out the championship game was scheduled to be played on a Sunday. I had made a personal commitment to God at age 16 that I would never play ball on Sunday. So I went to the coach and explained my problem. He was incredulous. My teammates were, too, because I was the starting center. Every one of the guys on the team came to me and said, “You’ve got to play. Can’t you break the rule just this one time?

I’m a deeply religious man, so I went away and prayed about what I should do. I got a very clear feeling that I shouldn’t break my commitment—so I didn’t play in the championship game.

In many ways that was a small decision—involving one of several thousand Sundays in my life. In theory, surely I could have crossed over the line just that one time and then not done it again. But looking back on it, resisting the temptation whose logic was “In this extenuating circumstance, just this once, it’s OK” has proven to be one of the most important decisions of my life. Why? My life has been one unending stream of extenuating circumstances. Had I crossed the line that one time, I would have done it over and over in the years that followed.

The lesson I learned from this is that it’s easier to hold to your principles 100% of the time than it is to hold to them 98% of the time. If you give in to “just this once,” based on a marginal cost analysis, as some of my former classmates have done, you’ll regret where you end up. You’ve got to define for yourself what you stand for and draw the line in a safe place.

Remember the Importance of Humility
I got this insight when I was asked to teach a class on humility at Harvard College. I asked all the students to describe the most humble person they knew. One characteristic of these humble people stood out: They had a high level of self-esteem. They knew who they were, and they felt good about who they were. We also decided that humility was defined not by self-deprecating behavior or attitudes but by the esteem with which you regard others. Good behavior flows naturally from that kind of humility. For example, you would never steal from someone, because you respect that person too much. You’d never lie to someone, either.

It’s crucial to take a sense of humility into the world. By the time you make it to a top graduate school, almost all your learning has come from people who are smarter and more experienced than you: parents, teachers, bosses. But once you’ve finished at Harvard Business School or any other top academic institution, the vast majority of people you’ll interact with on a day-to-day basis may not be smarter than you. And if your attitude is that only smarter people have something to teach you, your learning opportunities will be very limited. But if you have a humble eagerness to learn something from everybody, your learning opportunities will be unlimited. Generally, you can be humble only if you feel really good about yourself—and you want to help those around you feel really good about themselves, too. When we see people acting in an abusive, arrogant, or demeaning manner toward others, their behavior almost always is a symptom of their lack of self-esteem. They need to put someone else down to feel good about themselves.

Choose the Right Yardstick
This past year I was diagnosed with cancer and faced the possibility that my life would end sooner than I’d planned. Thankfully, it now looks as if I’ll be spared. But the experience has given me important insight into my life.

I have a pretty clear idea of how my ideas have generated enormous revenue for companies that have used my research; I know I’ve had a substantial impact. But as I’ve confronted this disease, it’s been interesting to see how unimportant that impact is to me now. I’ve concluded that the metric by which God will assess my life isn’t dollars but the individual people whose lives I’ve touched.

I think that’s the way it will work for us all. Don’t worry about the level of individual prominence you have achieved; worry about the individuals you have helped become better people. This is my final recommendation: Think about the metric by which your life will be judged, and make a resolution to live every day so that in the end, your life will be judged a success.

 
Web Analytics