tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33398211171066816202024-03-16T18:04:22.124+05:30Manu Rishi GupthaChronicle of a reluctant bloggerManu Rishi Gupthahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16628261943554617736noreply@blogger.comBlogger104125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3339821117106681620.post-42074667182742325582023-08-18T11:39:00.002+05:302023-08-18T11:48:08.064+05:30The 'Ten Blunders' to avoid when markets are touching all-time highs<p><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US">The euphoria is unpalpable, The
anchors at the top TV channels have already printed T-Shirts of “Nifty -
21000”. The Nasdaq is about to finally breach</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US"> (or atleast it was just a few days
ago) </span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US">its life high in a few days and
there has never been a better time to believe that “This time it’s different”</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">I have been in markets since 1993
and like most 50 yr olds have seen a few booms, busts, scams and a few
financial crisis. As a fund manager – when sometimes my clients ask me -
markets are at all-time highs and making new highs everyday why are you not
investing our money and simply holding on to cash. </span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">I give all my clients 2 choices –
Take Your money Back – Or be patient. But I ain’t changing my philosophy
because of the pressure of capital deployment. </span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Even though I am always fully
invested (personally), in markets (Levered to 120%) I am still almost always
fearful, as Socrates keeps knocking within me subconsciously with his words – “</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #1f1f1f; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Fools are always confident and the wise are
always in doubt”</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Perhaps I am a mad raging bull in
a bear clothing. The bull in me keeps me hopeful and the bear allows me to be
patient, cognizant of risks and to be non-greedy when everyone around me is
convinced that this time its different. Perhaps that’s why our portfolios have
been least volatile and have beaten markets with least amount of palpitations
for our clients over a long term.</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">But the 10 lessons that I have
learnt over the years and tried to imbibe in my investing style are as follows.</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: arial; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><b>1. Be bullish not foolish<o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">If the world is progressing and must
keep moving ahead (with inventions, technology, opportunities, AI et al)
markets will always go up over a long period of time. That allows us and
encourages us to be a perma-bull ala Rakesh Jhunjhunwala. Sensex at 60,000
seemed like an impossibility some 10 years ago. Today its 66000. So being a
bull almost always helps in the long run.</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">But in the short run becoming a
muppet in the hands of commentators is the worst punishment one can allow
oneself to be inflicted with. The narratives that emerge at the seeming peak of
the markets are always almost misleading and suicidal.</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: arial; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Lesson<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">When a stock, an idea or a sector
is being pushed feverishly – </span></i><i><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;">AVOID</span></i><i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">.</span></i><i><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: arial; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><b>2. Breakout Stocks<o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Finfluencers are running paid
courses on breakout stock strategy and thousands of gullible retail investors
fall for this trap. </span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">In the long run everything is
driven by fundamentals without an exception (or else Yes Bank wouldn’t have
become a No Bank and Suzlon would still be a blue chip) but in the short run,
everything is driven by operators and insiders. How else do most shares start
to perform or go down just before a major corporate announcement. Examples are
galore not only in Indian markets but US as well.</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Stocks break out not because the
companies have become fundamentally adroit. They break out because too much
money and fear is chasing too little items available. And that can make any
s*** break out. Sub 1000 Crore companies that suddenly get new narratives built
around them, coupled with incessant peddling of ‘the new promise in the lala
land’ on social media and sometimes on business channels always prove to
be<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a trap and wealth destroyers. Its
surprising that almost all breakouts happen only when markets are peaking.</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">If Infy or ICICI or the likes of
it break out, its great and merits attention but when stocks break out because
of positive news (in most cases planted) while promoters are happily offloading
their stake, not only should you be fearful, but you should also contemplate
sitting out of the markets for a while. As Buffet famously quotes “Only when
the tide goes out do you discover who is swimming naked”.</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: arial; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Lesson<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">If you are a superman and can get
on a bullet train (thats running towards an abyss) and get off it - just in
time, breakout investment strategy is ok. Else you will almost always get
scorched.</span></i><i><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><b>3. Beating the estimates </b></span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">When rivers start flowing above
the danger mark, the powers that be, worry little about the river or the impending
danger. They just raise the danger sign by a few feet so that the river remains
below the danger mark. Such is the story of the estimates by analysts. All
estimates are always beaten because estimates are not based on the FCF or
Earnings Yield. But based on a collective intelligence of sub optimal and mostly
clueless analysts who are experts in guesswork.</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">And sometimes estimates get
beaten because of a low base effect, one off income etc etc. For this one needs
to delve deep into the financial statements. But beating the estimates is one
of the most specious narratives to misguide the DIY and the gullible investor. </span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Imagine Nykaa listed at a peak
valuation of some 1,16,000 Cr (Nearly 15 Billion USD) and analysts hailed it as
a profitable company going into IPO while the Nayars privatized their profits
and socialized the losses. Its present EPS is some 7 ‘paise’ while its trading
at 70% below its listing price and still discounted more than 2200 times.</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Over the long term there are just
3 things that matter for a strong stock performance that has any likelihood of
creating wealth for shareholders. Valuation, Free Cash and Management intent.</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: arial; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Lesson<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Stick to the basic principles of
investment that have been in existence for decades. Analysts and their
estimates can be great entertainment not the bedrock of sound investment
strategies. </span></i><i><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: arial; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><b>4. Feeling good about bad data <o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Bad data is bad and good is good.
However markets have started interpreting this inversely. Can you imagine that
if the US jobs and inflation data is good, markets react negatively and vice
versa. Eventually the reality will catch up and markets will realize that job
losses aren’t good in the long run as data leads the reality by a few months
and yet in the short run bad data almost always pleases the market till it
doesn’t.</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: arial; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Lesson<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">If data is correct then trust the
data and not the convenient interpretation of it. (eg. Bad data will lead to
interest rate cuts and party of excesses will continue). Eventually something
that’s good for the economy will manifest itself into goodness and something
that’s bad will manifest itself accordingly in not so distant future.</span></i><i><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: arial; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><b>5. Discounting the distant future
in the present valuations<o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Decision of a Capital Expenditure
by a company, or establishment of a new factory or a newly acquired business
contract spread over multiple years almost always takes the stock price to
tizzy heights. And human mind is wired to feel bullish on news that has not
produced a single cent yet and no one really knows when it will – These traps
are best avoided as euphoria almost always fizzles out. Does anyone remember
the infra theme of 2006-2008? Most of those companies aren’t even listed
anymore. The present defense theme is no different. Be cautious when buying into
future stories.</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: arial; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Lesson<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">If a company is good it will keep
creating consistent shareholder wealth. And any prudent investor will make
money in that company’s lifecycle. (Buffet invested so late in Apple’s
lifecycle – And How - he didn’t miss any bus or opportunity). Don’t invest just
on the promise of a rosy future. Wait for your time.</span></i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: arial; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><b>6. The FOMO factor<o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">History is replete with examples
– and I have experienced it personally. If one really is in love with a stock
and wants to create a position, the irresistibility upon hearing TV
commentators and news flow is intense. But almost always every single stock
that you want to buy today will almost always be available a bit cheaper few
weeks or months down the line - Even if it’s the HDFC’s or the Bajaj’s of the
world. All one needs is a bit of patience to wait and build a stronger
conviction while the target or lower price is achieved. If FOMO could be
quantified, its directly proportional to the level of indices. Most bitcoin
retail aficionados invested between 50000 – 68000 USD. If Bitcoin is really a
store of value why aren’t they doubling down at 20000 USD?</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: arial; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Lesson<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Investments made in a state of
FOMO are never sound investments. Date your stock, understand it better,
observe it for a few Qtrs and then say Yes. You will never go wrong.</span></i><i><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: arial; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><b>7. Recency Bias<o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Anyone who has vivid memories of
2000 and 2009 and remembers Pentafour Software, DSQ, HFCL, Global Tele and JP
Associates, would resonate well with the perils of recency bias. When most of
these shares fell from (approx.) Rs. 3000 levels by 20%, people rushed to sell
their family silver and real estate to capture the opportunity of owning these
blue chips of those times. Well eventually all of these companies got delisted
and JP is now at an unfathomable level of Rs 8. </span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">The point to remember is that a
stock at Rs 1000 can well become a penny stock and the adage “how much more can
it fall” is stupidity. </span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: arial; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Lesson<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Not only should you never catch a
falling knife, don’t invest in story stocks. Companies that peddle stories and
not profits will always destroy their shareholders’ wealth.</span></i><i><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: arial; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><b>8. Herd Mentality<o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Speciality chemicals was as
crowded a trade</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;">,</span><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">
18 months ago as Banking is now. Finfluencers were allowed to blatantly push
narratives on TV Channels and the entire sector has destroyed a considerable
wealth over the last 2 years. Indian Banks are trading at reasonably rich
valuations while the CEO s of the same banks are </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banking/finance/banking/post-merger-hdfc-bank-chief-sashidhar-jagdishan-flags-funding-risk-says-net-interest-margins-to-be-hit/articleshow/102654654.cms?from=mdr"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">subtly
raising red flags on growth and margins</span></a></span><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"> yet the BAAP (Buy at any price) brigade is relentless –
and while banking sector is the bedrock of economic growth of any country –
valuations do matter. </span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: arial; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Lesson<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">When everyone is chasing the same
theme – it almost always spells trouble. DotCom in 2000’s, Housing in 2008’s
had the same fate. AI is the new darling theme. Lets see what happens to AI and
chip companies a few qtrs down the line.</span></i><i><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: arial; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><b>9. Cutting the flowers and
watering the weeds<o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Peter Lynch famously quipped the
above adage. I know more than a dozen people who are in love with Yes Bank and
Vodafone rather than ICICI Bank and Bharti. A large number of DIY investors
feel that the chances of a penny stock doubling are far higher than a
respectable and a fairly priced stock. The ‘averaging on the way down’ brigade
of Yes Bank, Unitech and JP Associates will continue to sell their winners while
collecting mountains of trash.</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Eventually such investors get
ejected out of the markets forever.</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: arial; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Lesson<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">The performance of a company gets
reflected in numbers and numbers get reflected in the Balance Sheet and the BS
gets reflected in the stock price. Stocks are where they are for a reason. A
red black on a roulette table offers a better probability of winning than
holding onto The Yes’s and Vodafone’s of the world in the hope of they
springing a magic.</span></i><i><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: arial; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><b>10. Falling in love with stocks, promoters
or commentary <o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">I recently heard a well known
fund manager mention in a podcast how he was in awe of Mr. Gosh and Bandhan
bank. This adulation towards a particular management clouded his ability to see
the turning fortunes for the worse at the bank and eventually he had to exit
the investment at a big loss to his investors.</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">It is easy to fall in love with
stocks/sectors which have given good returns in the past. But this should not
blind one’s rational thinking towards changing times. One key TV commentator
keeps peddling the idea that the next HDFC bank is the HDFC bank itself, while
the stock underperformed Nifty by a huge margin in the last 2.5 years and ICICI
snatched the mantle of growth and consistency in the Indian Banking space.</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: arial;">Positive Management
Commentary is another trap that most investors love to fall into. Bias clouds their
judgements and the performance as well. And most investors get sated by just
commentary. Which promoter will ever say that his future is bleak or give a
negative commentary?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Lesson</span></i><i><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Don’t cling onto stocks where
data or price isn’t supporting or where the business model could itself face a
headwind. If at all - cling onto relationships, great friendships and emotions
– not stocks</span></i><i><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"> and commentary.<o:p></o:p></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: arial; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><b>11. Checking the price and not
value<o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">We all aspire
to upgrade our standard of living (Car, House, Holiday destinations, etc) and
happily pay a premium for superior quality and size. But some of the most
prudent investors and sometimes fund-managers as well, take refuge of substandard
– low priced stocks (penny stocks) in the hope of dramatic turnaround or a
story that’s likely to unfold in some distant future. The propensity to indulge
in this investment strategy is directly proportional to the index levels. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Lesson<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">If there is
1% chance that your investment behavior is vaguely similar to gambling, you are
most likely to get into trouble. The probability of landing a multibagger amidst
an ocean of crappy stocks is like finding a unicorn in a herd of donkeys.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">If one could
just avoid stupidities in ones investment journey over decades, there is no
force that can stop you from compounding your wealth at an appreciable rate.
And compounding – the eighth wonder – is everything isn’t it?<br /><br /><a href="https://twitter.com/manurishiguptha" target="_blank">Follow Manu on Twitter</a></span></b><o:p></o:p></span></p>Manu Rishi Gupthahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16628261943554617736noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3339821117106681620.post-81476583332099519332023-07-30T23:36:00.000+05:302023-07-30T23:36:24.975+05:30 Air India – The looming waterloo for the TATA Group<p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><b>Warren Buffet famously quipped</b> - </span><span style="color: #0e101a;"><i>“If
a farsighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk back in the early 1900s,
he should have shot Orville Wright. He would have saved his progeny money. But
seriously, the airline business has been extraordinary. It has eaten up capital
over the past century like almost no other business because people seem to keep
coming back to it and putting fresh money in. You’ve got huge fixed costs, you’ve
got strong labor unions and you’ve got commodity pricing. That is not a great
recipe for success.”</i></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium;">I have always found the middle eastern airlines
(Qatar, Emirates, Etihad) alarmingly consistent, punctual and hospitable. But
this time while returning from SFO, I booked a direct flight to Bangalore and
Air India’s AI176 seemed like a great option. While the old bitter memories of
the erstwhile Air India (Pre Tata) were still fresh, the general pride about
Tata’s taking over a fledgling business, the full page ads of welcome back et
al, encouraged me to demonstrate my loyalty towards a home brand.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">I made 4 naïve assumptions and had only 4
expectations when I boarded.</span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Assumption 1 / Expectation 1</span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Tatas know what they do and have the capacity to affect
immediate incremental improvements. So it was obvious that I expected that the
basics ( Hospitality, Welcome, Charm, Friendliness, Food, Cleanliness ) will be
comparable to the best airlines.</span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Assumption 2 / Expectation 2</span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">With IHCL as a halo brand, TATAs must have transferred
a great guy from IHCL or Vistara to do the most basic quickfixes that are
customer facing, ( Uniforms, welcome greetings, body language etc ) to
demonstrate that the ailing Maharaja is now being taken care of and is returning
back to a reasonable flyable health.</span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Assumption 3 / Expectation 3</span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">TATAs reek of over-the-top propriety towards their
employees, customers and shareholders. So whatever happens their communication
will always be transparent and truthful. And when you buy a TATA product, or
own a TATA company – as a shareholder, or use their airline, you will always
hear the truth – and nothing but the truth. The 12 excruciating hrs when they
ripped my peaceful world apart was exemplary. </span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Assumption 4 / Expectation 4</span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Things go wrong – that’s natural. But great
companies and great brands that love to last generations, make the wrongs -
right. They say sorry. And they know how to do service recovery. And lastly
they mend and make an aggrieved customer happy.</span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">This ill fated flight and my ‘mera Baharat mahaan’
kind of loyalty not only proved me wrong, but also convinced me that
conglomerates that become too large, that aren’t nimble to quickly evolve and
improve, that don’t really treat their customer as GOD, sort out the temporary
mess at whatever cost (to protect the brand promise like Amazon does),
eventually fade away into sunsets of oblivion over a period of time.</span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">And Air India will bring the entire house of TATAs
down. Just like Kingfisher did Mallaya.</span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">“How dare you board my aircraft”</span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">I have been the CEO of some of the best rated
hospitality brands and can spot good/bad body language of associates from a
mile. “How dare you……” needed to change on Air India on DAY ONE – but it
didn’t. If someone has travelled enough, understands hospitality, and knows
what a true welcome entails ( as I learnt through my close association with
Relais and Chateaux during my corporate life ) AIR INDIA 176 was an epitome of
tired and disinterested crew.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">The Indian </span><i style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">‘Namaste’</i><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"> has a form and function
and its grace was appreciated all over the world – esp during pandemic. But the
namaste on AI 176 was an insult and disgrace on the Indian tradition of lifting
ones folded hands and greeting someone with a welcoming smile.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">If camera recordings are in place and Mr. N Chandra
and Mr. Campbell Wilson take the trouble of summoning these recordings – and I
assume that they get what I am alluding to – they would ground the entire
airline till they get the Namaste right.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The AIR INDIA namaste presently seems as if a 23 KG
weight has been tied to the hands of the welcoming crew that prevents their
hands to be lifted above the hip level and each one has been briefed by the
famous Mary Shelley with every gesture of welcome expressed with such disdain
that the first few minutes on the airplane seem like an ordeal.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">“How dare you board my aircraft – did you not have
anything better to do”</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">“How dare you expect a clean seat and a clean
aircraft”</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The first thing a passenger would do on a 17 hr
flight would be to empty ones pockets and relieve oneself of phones, gadgets
and pocket accoutrements into the sleeve / pocket at the front. And entire
microcosm of food trappings, grains of biscuit, food residue plastic and paper
was amazing. It just seemed that the last time a vacuum was used on that seat
was when the aircraft left Everett – years ago. I felt really sorry for the
invisible bacteria and viruses in that ecosystem. Disturbing their peace and years
of evolution seemed criminal. That little pocket seemed to ask me. Are you
real? Did you not have anything better to do than to use this pocket to keep
your stupid gadets? I almost felt sorry and derided myself at having disturbed
the calm and quiet of that microcosm.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">I vowed to myself – never ever to try and use the
airline seat pocket if I ever happen to travel AIR INDIA again.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">The start of the real story</span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The flight that was originally scheduled to depart
at approx. 2030 was rescheduled to 2330 a couple of hrs before the departure.
Its really quite understandable that flights get delayed. But passengers plan
to reach the airport as per original schedule because of lack of alternatives
in a fast moving, busy city like SFO. So when I reached at the usual 1730
(standard 3 hrs before an international flight) I struggled and was refused a
check in as the check in time had also been pushed away by 3 hrs. So basically
you are on your own for 3 hrs without food and water (SFO doesn’t have anything
wrt F&B before security). The three efforts that I made to speak to a
seemingly senior AI employee were met with retribution as she was busy briefing
her staff rather than making an effort to respond to a passenger, who was just
trying to request her to give some clarity and request for a check in because –
I was hungry and tired..</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">When we finally checked in and I boarded many hrs
later, all I wanted was to put my ear plugs to use and sleep.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">After discharging my duty towards protecting the
microcosm in the crevices of the seat pocket, I hoped that I would wake up in
Bangalore and requested the hostesses not to disturb me through the flight with
any food or alcohol service.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">The mystery of the luggage mashup</span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">There was a time in my life where I would take a flight
every 3</span><sup style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">rd</sup><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"> day but never did I ever hear that luggage of another
flight got boarded onto mine. But when the captain announced nearly 2 hrs into
my slumber, without a take-off, </span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">that
there was a mashup with the luggage of another flight – I thought – wow India
is so much better – to have never encountered an incident like this.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">About to take off for a good 3 hrs.</span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">After hearing a few times that things are going to
be just fine and we are taking off in minutes, we finally got to know at nearly
0300 hrs that the flight has a technical issue and stands cancelled. So much
for customer communication.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">One of the life and career lessons I have learnt
after being in customer service for decades is – Don’t keep your customer in
dark. Tell him all that you know, keep him informed and if there is a screw up
– be honest about it.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">AIR INDIA needs to learn that.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">What happened next was the mother of all Eff Ups</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">The 8 ordeals that no passenger should every go
through</span></b></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
Whilst <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Maharaja ensured that I did</span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">I must confess that I have never ever encountered a
cancelled flight and had checked in all my jumpers and puffers as I am very
familiar with home (Bangalore) weather and assumed that the cabin blanket
(provided by the airline) would suffice.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -18pt;"> 1.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: -18pt;">While deboarding ( without a jumper at 0400 hrs
approx ) I shared my predicament with the hostess and requested to take one
blanket even if I had to pay as I didn’t have a warm clothing and offered to
hand over the same to the ground staff the moment I got my luggage. The hostess
presented my request to another lady and she came across so harshly as if I had
requested her for her kidney. She almost made me feel as if she had caught me
stealing the same in front of the other passengers. If I had just decided to
pack it in my hand baggage ( because of the exigent circumstances ) the matter
would have been over.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"> 2. </span></span></span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">On my way out I saw staff and some enthusiastic
selfie obsessed individuals taking fotos of the plane from the aerobridge – and
I learnt (unverified) that the main issue was that the plane was pushed back without
disengaging from the aerobridge etc that damaged it to a point of un-flyable. </span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"> 3. </span></span></span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The station manager or the lady in charge was
clueless about ways to handle nearly 400 passengers and infants and senior
citizens. The commotion at the check in counter (where we all were advised to
go) was a mess and there was no solution or an alternative. All she said was –
you can find alternative flights – find hotels and basically what she meant was
– I don’t know what the hell to do.</span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">4.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"> 4. </span></span></span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">There are tens of hotels in the vicinity of SFO
International airport. All that was required was for her to call a nearby hotel
( I refuse to believe that airlines don’t have a connect ) and book 100-150
rooms – only on ‘pay if one uses basis’ – any hotel at that hour would have
firstly given a great deal to Air India and secondly this was the most
commonsensical thing to do. All that needed to be done was to tell all the
passengers that you can land up at this hotel, show the boarding pass and the
passport and your bed and breakfast is taken care of.</span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">5.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"> 5. </span></span></span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Imagine parents with wailing children at that hour –
some travelling with wheelchair bound parents, having to book hotels, taxis and
figure out what to do.</span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">6.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"> 6. </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">A paper was handed – </span><a href="https://ind01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dropbox.com%2Fscl%2Ffi%2Fn8bxspeydzbl14zhxhksr%2FAir-India-Cancellation-and-Refund-notice.jpeg%3Frlkey%3Dmq9vwkpdhk6h1ll36thtidofw%26dl%3D0&data=05%7C01%7C%7C7129a53ad53a43f2ab6c08db8dbe1807%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C638259619830166580%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=S6FQVPsZi1wIX7BeBSHgh1OJLncxfxj%2FmFrZsCcrFxo%3D&reserved=0"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">an
unsigned paper</span></a><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> which said that all expenses, hotels , taxis and
diff of fares for the booked flight will be paid upon submitting the claim to
the email address (</span><a href="mailto:dutymgr.sfo@airindia.com"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">dutymgr.sfo@airindia.com</span></a><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">)
</span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">here.<br />
Could the station manager not have shown some initiative to give 3 – 4 flight
alternatives to all the passengers (everyone had the same destination –
Bangalore) and an offer to figure this out – rather than leave everyone in a
lurch.</span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">7.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"> 7. </span></span></span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">If someone is awake for nearly 23-24 hrs, not able
to reach ones home, not knowing how and when one would – the mind and body
starts reacting in a diff manner. Being tired, sleepless, helpless and
solutionless at the hands of The Maharaja is not only frustrating – but
immensely disappointing.</span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">I haven’t stopped cursing myself for the choices of
travel I made by taking this flight to get to my home.</span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">8.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">I finally had the nicest and punctual experience
with Qatar to get back home.</span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">9.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"> 8. </span></span></span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">This ordeal could have been forgotten as a blip in one’s
busy life if The Maharaja would have just said sorry and paid off all the
expenses, sent an email to the aggrieved passengers and brought the ordeal to a
closure. But its been nearly 20 days. I have sent 3 emails to this (</span><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">dutymgr.sfo@airindia.com)</span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
address and raised a ticket on the AIR India website 3 times with 3 follow ups
on the ticket raised. None of the emails have bounced. </span><span style="color: #0e101a; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">And
there is no response whatsoever. <span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">I have got no acknowledgement and I don’t really know who is the
real custodian of AIR INDIA – Its definitely not the present CEO.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Its safe to assume that @TCS would be managing the IT
setup of AIR INDIA and its rather surprising that there is no internal redflag
in the entire system since nearly 20 days that a customer is struggling just to
get a basic response and resolution to a situation.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">A company that’s running </span><i style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">“On the mercy of the almighty”</i><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"> ,
guzzles capital, operates in a hypercompetitive</span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">
</span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">environment, has recently placed the largest order for aircrafts in the history of aviation industry better get its Namaste and basics right or someone in TATAs will
have to find a villa next to Lady Walk Mansion in not so distant future.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Long Live The Maharaja.</span></span></p>Manu Rishi Gupthahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16628261943554617736noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3339821117106681620.post-13951510652916621832023-04-24T00:05:00.000+05:302023-04-24T00:05:04.442+05:30How USA can trigger a decade long economic winter?I have always had a diminutive stature and as a kid I cannot forget when I was first bullied in school by a guy who was bigger, pretended to be invincible and for some reason managed to instill a belief among all of us that if we don’t toe his line, our future would be bleak and sustained existence – questionable! <br /><br />But obviously there comes a realization when enough is enough and the 8 of us got together and decided to give it all back to the big B. The next few months were excruciating. The Bully wasn’t ready to concede and did all that it took to create many disruptions in all ways, irrespective of whether they were fair or unfair, and we figured out that that fellow is just a pretentious bully who didn’t stand a chance in front of our cohesive group. <br /><br />Well, the economists and the global observers reading this piece would have already figured out that this analogy above is scaringly congruent to the US and its present situation on the global arena. As the most powerful and influential country on the planet struggles to find a balance between the devil (inflation) and the deep sea (recession) while grappling with the unmanageable excesses of the Modern Monetary Theory, it has to face the consequences of the bully getting cornered by the bullied. <br /><br />When a large part of the world was struggling with the unknown unknowns of the Covid in the 2nd half of 2020, my friends in the US were buying new houses, cars and Rolexes as they started receiving direct credits because of the largest expansion of US debt. ‘31.5 Trillion and Counting’. <br /><br />Corporations were being doled out unconditional lines of credit and the economic activity was pushed by liquidity rather than a fundamental demand momentum. <br /><br />And this released the inflation genie out of the can that’s seemingly impossible to put back. <br /><br />The quantum of liquidity unleashed in the global markets, the QE1,2,3,4 – The Balance Sheet expansion by more than double in less than 2 years are all a matter-of-fact data available in public domain but lets look at how we are staring at an economic winter triggered by the US of A. <br /><br />And the reason behind this is that US is such a large consumer of everything on this planet, wields so much economic and military power, is the epicenter of almost all inventions, that if US sneezes, the world won’t catch a cold now – it will suffer from pulmonary pneumonia. <br /><br /><b>1. Going off the Gold Standard</b><div><br /></div><div>When Nixon realized as early as 1971 that there isn’t as much Gold (the original norm) as the money printed to expand the economy and make the US economy a consumer driven rather than production driven (like Germany), the alleged path of “print your way to prosperity” became the new norm. And money is like cocaine addiction – You can’t ever reduce the dose. <br /><br />When elections are won on the premise of false prosperity, writing off loans, rescue of debt ridden citizens – this has to go on and on as there is no going back. <br /><br />It’s an irony that countries such as India that have far more robust Balance Sheets are rated lower by American rating agencies as compared to their own Balance sheets that are standing on the precipice of disaster but are still rated AAA+. <br /><br />The US dollar held its ground as long as the music was going on but US never anticipated the consequence of other formidable nations ganging up to jointly make an effort to de-dollarize the global economic activity – so suddenly, so soon. <br /><br /><br /><b>2. Hopelessly trying to be a global policeman & Underestimating others</b> </div><div><br /></div><div>Jury is still out whether Russia s military invasion of Ukraine is right or wrong. It would require a delve into history and analysis and ramifications of ‘NATO s promise to Gorbachev’ or the ‘Cuban missile crisis’. But if America was completely dependent on Russian Oil and Gas like Europe is – America might have actually allied with Russia to help it accede Ukraine. While all other misadventures, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan have failed miserably, US has successfully pushed the entire Euro region (in the name of allied cooperation) into an economic turmoil that factories are going bankrupt, utility bills have shot up 5-6 times and the middle class is being pushed to what’s called energy poverty and people are struggling to barely keep themselves warm. <br /><br />And no country supporting Ukraine to fight this surrogate war even as much as fathomed or anticipated that Putin might just change the world order because he controls the largest nuclear arsenal, largest natural reserves, has been accumulating gold for last 10 years to challenge the fiat currencies of the west, is teaming up with other brats – China and Saudi, has bypassed the SWIFT system of payment and while all other currencies cant seem to find the bottom on their way down, the Russian Ruble is up 40% as compared to its long term averages. <br /><br />By sanctioning the foreign reserves of Russia (which were obviously in dollars and Gold) US has fired a bullet, albeit holding the gun backwards where it has scared every other nation that US can freeze the so-called global reserve currency at its own whim and fancy and all the central bankers are now securing and upping their gold reserves and selling American Treasuries thereby hedging themselves against the US Dollar and the whims of US of A. <br /><br />Can one even begin to imagine that if dollar begins to lose its status of being the reserve currency, what will happen to an average American who barely has a thousand dollars in bank while the nation has a per capita debt of ~92000 dollars. <br /><br />And what might be the consequence on the rest of the planet when the world’s most voracious consumer doesn’t have the buying power to import and other countries that have created humongous capacities to feed the US, no longer have a market anymore. <br /><br /><br /><b>3. The dance between QE and QT </b><br /><br />Almost infinite and uncontrolled QE took every asset price on the planet thru the roof in the last 2 years. Creative guys were selling NFTs of the most obnoxious things that one could fathom and they found a thriving suckers market for the same. Second hand Rolexes were being sold at double the price of the new ones and house prices in some favorite districts in the US shot up by 200 percent. It’s almost obvious – when the interest rate is zero or near zero the value of the underlying asset could be infinite. <br /><br />And almost everyone believed that this would go on forever. <br /><br />Uncontrolled inflation is a bane for any nation. Venezuela, Iraq, Pakistan and the erstwhile Weimar republic are great case studies and US will have to do whatever it takes to bring in price stability. <br /><br />475 bps of interest rate increases later, the inflation is still far from being tamed. And while prudence demands that inflation must be brought down to levels that are appropriately mandated to the FED, the destruction of businesses, banks, Private Balance Sheets along the way will take years to recover and will kill demand and in turn - global businesses. <br /><br /><br /><b>4. All it takes effort – to cling on to power and to maintain supremacy. </b><br /><br />We have seen with the Portuguese, The Dutch, The British – that all thru the history the loss of power by one empire/nation is hard for it to accept and empires/nations do whatever it takes to cling onto the power at whatever cost. This is likely to create larger quantum of conflicts over the next decade as Russia, China, Saudi and India start to ally with each other and challenge the hegemony of the erstwhile superpower – The USA. <br /><br />In turn USA will try and do whatever it takes to protect its economic and military turf and I would love to be completely wrong here but no other nation needs a global conflict of a massive proportion more than the US today. A global conflict, as history teaches us, is almost a sure shot way to create a much required distraction and to end a recession. A global conflict is seemingly the only solution that might give US the much required runway that its almost run out of. <br /><br />Markets reaction to the QEs, Covid, Russia war and now QT has been sanguine so far. S&P 500 is only some 15% away from its highs. The chills that the Fed chairman, Powell tries to infuse in every Fed meet has been taken lightly by the market ( market always almost says through its reaction that – ‘Powell is lying’ )but will most likely will lead to a long winter for the global markets ahead. A 400 bps interest rate increase by Fed between 2004-2007 led to financial meltdown in 2008 and orchestrated Lehman like collapses Et al, and a much quicker 475bps increase in rates from March 2022 till date is unlikely to have any different outcome. Fed has almost run out of the bullets and even if it finds one, its holding the gun backwards. <br /><br />The bullied have become the bully and the erstwhile bully is clueless and hapless.<br /><br />This article originally appeared in cxotoday.com <a href="https://www.cxotoday.com/specials/how-usa-can-trigger-a-decade-long-economic-winter/" target="_blank">https://www.cxotoday.com/specials/how-usa-can-trigger-a-decade-long-economic-winter/ </a></div>Manu Rishi Gupthahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16628261943554617736noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3339821117106681620.post-36698390011781407522023-01-16T12:16:00.002+05:302023-01-16T14:01:22.699+05:30ITC - And The Story Of The School Crush<p><span style="text-align: justify;">I was surprised they didn’t sue </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aswath_Damodaran" style="text-align: justify;" target="_blank">Dr. Ashwath Damodaran</a><span style="text-align: justify;"> when he
opined that </span><a href="https://www.bqprime.com/business/itcs-best-days-are-behind-it-says-aswath-damodaran" style="text-align: justify;" target="_blank">ITCs bestdays are behind it</a><span style="text-align: justify;">.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">We have all had crushes during our school
days and almost always our crush would just create a flutter, never materialise
into anything meaningful, we would try and attract the person’s attention,
protect them fiercely (without the same mattering to the subject), it would
always remain a sweet memory, would eventually fade into oblivion without
giving any carnal or emotional happiness but You won’t ever hear anything
against it.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOLAp7KsmcY0jwTsqgx3j98xPJNu0GzS90y61gxF74_HCdCKPu-sHdAQyltmbKXlkfeB-lBxNXyTEaMlWuVKqs7q-uAiuwNIPE19PgAV-w-nxlyS3BpMBTGqse7qy8oAyp7m-RWJeUrWGBMuuGIWix0rluav2_Y_mV3zmloWjYqYeCTrKTP2XTtxEO/s1280/itc%20and%20the%20school%20crush%20cartoon.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="905" data-original-width="1280" height="283" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOLAp7KsmcY0jwTsqgx3j98xPJNu0GzS90y61gxF74_HCdCKPu-sHdAQyltmbKXlkfeB-lBxNXyTEaMlWuVKqs7q-uAiuwNIPE19PgAV-w-nxlyS3BpMBTGqse7qy8oAyp7m-RWJeUrWGBMuuGIWix0rluav2_Y_mV3zmloWjYqYeCTrKTP2XTtxEO/w400-h283/itc%20and%20the%20school%20crush%20cartoon.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />Well that’s the story of ITC’s
shareholders and how this amazing company with an infinite potential will
eventually take an entire generation of dividend lovers down with it and would
become a case study just like The General Electric.<p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">History is replete with examples of
companies that got consumed by hubris because they had no real owner, no one
was answerable, shareholders had no say, the management had no skin in the game
and the board was only self-serving to ensure that their own compensation was
secure – to hell with shareholders.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Now a few of You while reading this
would be euphoric about this momentary surge in the share price over the last
few months and the celebrated dividend yield. Little realising that when
shareholder’s equity/capital is invested, the purpose of the same is to
consistently enhance return on equity at an attractive IRR, but not set the foundation
for permanent capital destruction.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">General Electric, Enron, Indiabulls,
…. (the list is infinite) are just a few examples where dividend yield kept the
hopes of the romantics (shareholders) alive while consistently destroying
shareholder’s wealth.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">There are more than many companies
that provide adequate capital protection, better corporate governance, great
dividend yield and ‘far far’ better capital allocation strategies – but that’s
for another day.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">For the longest period of time GE was
the most respected company, Jack Welch the most celebrated leader (the folklore
goes that his Salmon for lunch would fly in from Norway in Company’s private
jet - obviously at the shareholder’s expense), could do no wrong. His word was
the gospel truth in management and leadership, people loved the dividend yield
and yet he set the stage for its eventual demise. This got discovered much
after he was gone.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">And while there were so many instances
of 30-40% surge in its share-price since 1990, GE eventually reached where it
was destined to - NOWHERE.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">And anyone thinking that ITC will create any shareholder wealth, will have an
ever-increasing ROCE, will be disappointed and this piece will go down in
history as the most momentous piece. For no amount of defamation suit can
possibly muffle the logic or the sound reason behind a compelling argument. And
the liberty provided to me by my constitution </span><a href="https://www.constitutionofindia.net/constitution_of_india/fundamental_rights/articles/Article%2019" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">u/s 19 is
obliged to fiercely protect this right</span></a><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">I was amused when ITC gave a 10 hr investor
presentation last year. Companies that cant face shareholders, give 10 hr long “one-sided”
presentations that can barely pass the muster of being more than a new
employee orientation presentation, one-way communication trying to justify the
underperformance in the garb of future potential.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Most Promoters would resonate with what
I am talking about - when employees hoodwink boards and shareholders by their
specious Annual Operating Plans by presenting a 10 year vision and a large part
of that vision would reach fruition only towards the later part of that plan.
As someone clichédly said “more fiction is written on PPT’s and Excel Sheets
than by Rowling or Dan Brown”.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">I actually have very vivid memories of
a sales professional who worked for me (not too long ago), who would always
promise a brighter future just a few years down the line. I had the luxury of
knowing that person for 8-9 years so would always end up musing about the
missing results of the actions that were taken 9 yrs ago that were to fructify
into profits/performance 6 years ago – the saga went on and on. But yes,
companies and professionals on their eventual irreversible decline almost
always say that the worst is behind us, all is sorted, future is bright and
everything will fall into place just a few months before the superannuation.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Readers of this piece who invest in the
markets and have reasonably good memory can well relate to “the worst is behind
us” narrative peddled by a PSU bank and an automobile company. Unfortunately, for
years and years this narrative alone has been enough to mislead the
shareholders. (This for another time and another piece).</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">But let this all not just be a
narrative. Let’s get to the numbers and the real performance because numbers
don’t lie.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">For the longest period of time ITC has
been peddling false narratives about their capital allocation (masked
destruction) and a faraway <i>lala</i> utopian land. Most of my argument
against their questionable narrative perpetrated over time has been called out
in my 2 earlier pieces</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><a href="http://manurishiguptha.blogspot.com/2020/10/10-blunders-1-arrogant-company-millions.html" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">10
Blunders – One arrogant company ( Millions of Shareholders Suffering ) – The
story of ITC</span></a><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">And <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><a href="http://manurishiguptha.blogspot.com/2021/06/magic-illusion-or-just-trickery-story.html" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Magic
Illusion or Just trickery – The story of ITC</span></a><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">But really as a minority shareholder i
can see and strongly opine, if ITC was to just sell out their entire gamut of
FMCG and Hospitality businesses to either Nestle, Britannia, Adani or Unilever
and hotels to IHCL or Oberois (Under the blessings of Reliance) they can
probably save the company – but the self-serving board of <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>ITC would technically become redundant if they
actually put the company on the path of propriety … Simple. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The chart below is a glaring evidence
of abysmally low return ratios in the hospitality business and the FMCG
business. One wonders, had the cigarettes not been subsidising everything else,
the managers would have successfully bankrupted these 2 divisions long ago. To
be fair to the line managers including the CEO’s of the divisions, they are
nice guys – professional – but completely out of control because they can’t
handle the burden of their division’ legacy and bloated balance sheets.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Most of the alleged growth is coming
from Agri Business over the last few years – at ever depleting margins. For the
record the Agri business operated at an abysmally low EBIT of 5.5% in H1 FY 23,
6.6% in FY22 vs 7.1% in FY21 – Margins are consistently shrinking when the
entire corporate world had the best of the last 2 years. This is a reflection
of poor managerial governance.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Agri Business (as per H1 FY 23 B/S) is
~Rs. 6,000 Crs in assets. Assuming it is a depreciated value at 12% per year
for last 10 years, the real capex made is ~Rs. 22,000 Crs. [ 6,000/(1-r%)^n)].
Assuming this capex was done equally over last 10 years, at an IRR of 13%, this
would have been ~Rs.40,000 Crs worth of equity, but currently it is only
generating Rs. 1,200 Crs of annual EBIT at 3.0% efficiency whilst the GOI bonds
are generating upwards of 7%. It doesn’t take an expert to figure out what this
means and what these numbers are hiding.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Taking credit for increase in cigarette
sales</span></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Can a well-meaning manager at ITC take
credit for more people converting into smokers or a smoker, smoking more
cigarettes than ever before. And if cigarettes sales are increasing thereby
increasing profits – it’s just plain luck for that division’s P&L and
Balance Sheet.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">ITC is doing exceedingly well and
turning around while generating a handsome dividend yield.</span></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">This argument is pushed more than
often by all analysts and Fund Managers in media.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The other side of the same argument very
convincingly sounds – <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">ITC has lost the plot because after
investing Rs. 1,77,000 Cr of shareholder wealth and putting it in jeopardy, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(Numbers and arguments in the later part of
this article), ITC is still at the bottom of the stack in all operational metrics.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">CHARTS<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Top FMCG companies when compared with
ITC</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjIrWKIonCXCgSPs0krBBhAYkBWn7-NrtzHMy5V3OX-gPSsilaqNkQdE9uK20pkXY0oGU26GK1YJ7ve4sEocO_4VXhZABHKW4MDXXLyfyDSU0vLRF_2jL8xRlvHk11xvnPHKZjYdyrI1VLr0ZoyH0wPOAkfkDr7X27C-jtXWOV07SQGF2qB86ux8-Y1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="416" data-original-width="805" height="206" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjIrWKIonCXCgSPs0krBBhAYkBWn7-NrtzHMy5V3OX-gPSsilaqNkQdE9uK20pkXY0oGU26GK1YJ7ve4sEocO_4VXhZABHKW4MDXXLyfyDSU0vLRF_2jL8xRlvHk11xvnPHKZjYdyrI1VLr0ZoyH0wPOAkfkDr7X27C-jtXWOV07SQGF2qB86ux8-Y1=w400-h206" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /> </span><p></p>
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</o:lock></v:imagedata></v:shape></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">ITC’s EBIT Margins continuously lag
due to highly commoditized products (Atta), subdued margin profile as other
product lines are category challengers (Biscuits, Noodles, Cosmetics etc.). <i>Koi
puche inse – bhai muddat ho chali hai – kar kyaa rahe ho jo itna boora haal
hai.</i><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Top listed Hotel companies compared
with ITC Hotels. <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjMyqVHe23W2Dz2Tm2Ae1LDaLLaL1NmUUjcQAgw_MQg20lSbVXm2atSg6SUXiRt8iXp2Z1V8Yx__rmDvoy1lKrHqsr6LqX6l-yakoSZcVjNXqIc-Hbizw8oPckLeTBxtvpmeYkUCpWdek43lA9vRCMm1hLZBSPojioce4-GJF9BiwZLblJUQgcg_CDL" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="479" data-original-width="781" height="245" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjMyqVHe23W2Dz2Tm2Ae1LDaLLaL1NmUUjcQAgw_MQg20lSbVXm2atSg6SUXiRt8iXp2Z1V8Yx__rmDvoy1lKrHqsr6LqX6l-yakoSZcVjNXqIc-Hbizw8oPckLeTBxtvpmeYkUCpWdek43lA9vRCMm1hLZBSPojioce4-GJF9BiwZLblJUQgcg_CDL=w400-h245" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-no-proof: yes;"><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_3" o:spid="_x0000_i1027" style="height: 217.2pt; mso-wrap-style: square; visibility: visible; width: 353.4pt;" type="#_x0000_t75">
<v:imagedata o:title="" src="file:///C:/Users/mrg45/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image002.png">
</v:imagedata></v:shape></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj4CfafRUad9xy2KommNCWuZXP-Trp6kSAUo-5cz59r7hKY6HUStjUKU_wRzPiSSbNBbN_fOjc75uJrhkjEcHn319cD9jy4UzpVnSsS38yP54GZAUlY2Ggli7j5K9lRtiV_hRLqumkL6BZy45ViqTPlPNc57s4FA4GsZxTIwTxh-cj9AQ2YwXVY1yMM" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="478" data-original-width="768" height="249" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj4CfafRUad9xy2KommNCWuZXP-Trp6kSAUo-5cz59r7hKY6HUStjUKU_wRzPiSSbNBbN_fOjc75uJrhkjEcHn319cD9jy4UzpVnSsS38yP54GZAUlY2Ggli7j5K9lRtiV_hRLqumkL6BZy45ViqTPlPNc57s4FA4GsZxTIwTxh-cj9AQ2YwXVY1yMM=w400-h249" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">EBIT and EBIT Margins continue to lag
when compared with the peers, for e.g. in FY21 and FY 22, it has the highest
EBIT loss and EBIT Margin is negative, implying higher fixed cost structure and
lower operating leverage. Also, even after the industry’s pent-up demand since Feb’22,
the EBIT Margins still reek of inefficiencies.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The only solution to all this is a
cluster of some serious, young, experienced and well educated outside
professionals on the board that put a stop to the empire building and stop the
equity haemorrhage thereby protecting shareholder’s interest.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Personal empire building must stop and
the adage “Our Ex Chairman liked hotels” must be replaced by a cutting edge
uncompromisable quest for Return on Equity. Division heads should be clearly
told to operate and expand without dipping in papa’s pockets. That’s when ITC
and its downstream divisions will come off age.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">But then the party must stop for
inefficient managers. Is ITC ready for that? In my opinion it never will be -
till they reach a stage where they don’t have sufficient cash to pay liberal
dividends and dividend yields start to plummet.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Disrespect For Free Cash<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Take for example the acquisition of
Mylo (a company involved in digital marketing?) at a valuation of 400 Cr. A
company that presently does Rs. 3.4 Crs in sales with a PAT of Rs. (minus) -15.9
Crs has been valued at 400 Cr. And ITC wasted 40 Cr of shareholder wealth for 10%
of equity in this company for what? Could India’s best digital marketing company
not be given a professional contract for the same value add with quantifiable
deliverables? Is Mylo giving any service for free to ITC? My only recollection
of Mylo is Jim Carrey’s puppy in ‘The Mask’. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Delve deep through discovery of data and
I would not be surprised if some vested interests are at play.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Hotels<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Hotel Assets (as per H1 FY 23 B/S) are Rs. 7,500 Crs. Assuming it
is a depreciated value at 12% per year (blended for the purpose of brevity) for
last 10 years, the real capex made is ~Rs. 27,000 Crs <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>[7,500/(1-r%)^n)]. Assuming this capex was
done equally over last 10 years, at an IRR of 13%, this would have been worth
~Rs. 50,000 Crs of Shareholder’s Funds, but currently this investment is only
generating Rs. 227 Crs of TTM EBIT. Which incidentally includes all the
revenues from all the expansion and chest thumping management contracts that are
being signed to masquerade itself to be a fast-expanding hospitality brand.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a name="_Hlk113310667"><b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">FMCG Division</span></b></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk113310667;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk113310667;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Assets (as
per H1 FY 23 B/S) is Rs. 13,000 Crs. Again, assuming it is a depreciated value
at 12% per year for last 10 years, the real capex done is of ~Rs. 47,000 Crs
[13,500/(1-r%)^n)]. Assuming this capex was done equally over last 10 years, at
an IRR of 13%, this would have been ~Rs. 87,000 Crs worth but currently it is
only generating Rs. 1,000 Crs of annual EBIT. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk113310667;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Destroyed Capital<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">If this Rs. 1,77,000 Crs (approx. 21.5 Billion USD) <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(Agri : Rs. 40,000 Crs + Hotels Rs. 50,000 Crs
+ FMCG Rs. 87,000 Crs) was simply put in govt of India bonds with annualized 7.5%
per annum, the same would fetch ~Rs. 13,275 Crs viz a viz the present cumulative
~Rs. 2,475 Crs per annum with underlying capital/capex permanently destroyed
unless monetised at a later stage.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The only viable solution out of this persistent and incurable
inefficiency is to respectably monetise its hospitality division and sell it to
either IHCL (a far more efficient organisation) or to Oberois that really know
how to efficiently manage hotels, create cutting edge globally recognised brands
and are on a sustainable expansion spree. I believe even Lemon Tree would do a
better job.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">And Unilever / Nestle would be happy,
in the interest of scale, to acquire, and probably pay a respectable premium
for the FMCG division of ITC. But above all there would be no better suitor
than Adani Wilmar or Reliance Retail for which ITC-FMCG will provide a much-needed
backward integration (largest retail chain), efficient operations and a respectable
exit / face saving for ITC.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Here is another prediction</span></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The
Board of ITC will never ever demerge its divisions because that will put an end
to the party that has been going on as division heads will have to become self-sufficient,
raise capital, manage debt and above all answer to shareholders when industry
benchmarks of performance aren’t met.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><b>History will be unkind to BAT, LIC and
SUUTI</b> with combined ownership of 52.66% (BAT : 29.22% LIC: 15.57% and SUUTI :
7.87% respectively) which continue to see a gradual haemorrhage of the
intrinsic value of this company that has amazing potential and an opportunity
to resurrect itself from the path of permanent destruction.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">If ITC doesn’t get its act together,
doesn’t stop muffling the voice of reason and logic, continues to waste its
cash on lawsuits, the day isn’t far when the dividend yield might still remain
an attractive 5%, but the share price is much much lower and expense on
defamation suits would be a significant line item in its expense statement.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Price vs Reality<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Dr Ashwath Damodaran, popularly known
as the God of Valuation, was hailed when Zomato exactly touched the price that
Dr. Damodaran put as its fair value. And according to his metric as per the valuation
lecture of July’2019 valued ITC at Rs. 170<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(</span><a href="https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/country/val2dayIndia2019.pdf" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/country/val2dayIndia2019.pdf</span></a><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">). Using
the same methodology, we arrive at a price of Rs. 206 as below. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">Sum of the Parts Valuation as on date :</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgWXble5XSdKeM9hUw0HUmCXJhNpIvtminMnPfMwMVphy8rvpeh0KEoVhO4Aj4RiuHrCNkSXHaKItIcb71Apxe-34NyZkJvBzNZBA_epgn3JkVLAWiwn9zR1hdfFAdSFlhu8xtwZgtKSMtSshdYcwJCrTHMJZvHGoqsK-5ptyTdM_nFKuVTTJLutpLF" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="373" data-original-width="940" height="159" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgWXble5XSdKeM9hUw0HUmCXJhNpIvtminMnPfMwMVphy8rvpeh0KEoVhO4Aj4RiuHrCNkSXHaKItIcb71Apxe-34NyZkJvBzNZBA_epgn3JkVLAWiwn9zR1hdfFAdSFlhu8xtwZgtKSMtSshdYcwJCrTHMJZvHGoqsK-5ptyTdM_nFKuVTTJLutpLF=w400-h159" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="text-align: left;"><br /><br /></span><p></p><b>The cottage industry of the ITC memes might not be dead yet and the thunder of these memes' last laugh might yet be heard.</b><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>Manu Rishi Gupthahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16628261943554617736noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3339821117106681620.post-74915327958484662622022-09-26T16:10:00.004+05:302022-09-26T16:10:54.037+05:30The 9 pivots that have changed the course of humanity<p style="margin: 0cm;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">And why India must
not miss the opportunity to become an economic outlier</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">As I get inspired by
Investor Vijay Kedia s </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1E1EAXJ9t_w" target="_blank"><span style="color: #4a6ee0; font-size: 13.0pt;">latest on Indian
markets</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> and as a proud
Indian, see the hard work of the forefathers of our nation paying off, as
reflected in the present economic indicators, I cannot but muse on the circus
going on in the rest of the world.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Never ever in
recorded history has mankind been happier to learn about the misery of others
as it is today.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">If US job losses
increase, the markets cheer the data by going up.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">If house prices
crash, the markets go up.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">If data demonstrates
progress, growth in GDP and lesser unemployment, the opposite happens – and
markets crash – as is happening at the time of writing this piece.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Counterintuitive –
Isnt it?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Such are the times
when all that matters is the party of excesses to continue to sustain
short-termism on steroids at the cost of future generations and the future
well-being of the planet.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Since a few weeks as
I see Dow Jones plummet by thousands of points triggered by </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerome_Powell" target="_blank"><span style="color: #4a6ee0; font-size: 13.0pt;">Powell’s</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> succinct yet powerful speech at Jackson Hole and the
recent inflation data and interest rate hikes, I see a few nations worried,
guilty and nervous about the perils that they have unleashed on the world in
the last 80 years.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">History is replete
with instances of pivots that have brought extreme progress to the planet, but
humanity must also be cognizant of an equal number of catalysts it has created,
that have put the planet on the path of eventual destruction far sooner than
what the creator had probably ordained for.</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">And history will not
be kind to the so-called advanced economies (the G4 or whatever) that have
collectively put the world in such peril – the effects of which shall continue
to be felt for centuries to come – if we have that many left.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Mahatma Gandhi Said</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> – There is enough for everyone’s need – but not for
everyone’s greed.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">As children we grew
up with simple yet powerful lessons in life such as :<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Eat a bit less than
your stomach-full</span></li><li><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Do unto others what
you would want others to do unto you</span></li><li><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Live within your
means </span></li><li><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Avoid debt </span></li><li><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Save a for the rainy
day</span></li><li><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Believe in the law
of Karma</span></li></ul><p></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><em><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">What the developed
world has orchestrated in the last few decades will come to haunt us forever.</span></b></em><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Most of what’s manifesting
in the world today is a result of some strategic and behavioral pivots the
ramifications of which are mostly irreversible.</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Pivot I</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Bretton Woods</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br />
<br />Great Britain’s weakness (post the II W.War) was a compelling opportunity for
the US to push the </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/brettonwoodsagreement.asp" target="_blank"><span style="color: #4a6ee0; font-size: 13.0pt;">Bretton Woods</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> system of exchange thereby giving “THE” dominance to the
US Dollar which USA printed its way to consumption, creation of infrastructure,
funding of wars, orchestration of conflict (whenever US$ felt threatened). When
everything is either traded in or pegged to the dollar, USA was able to
confidently print the greenback and create a monstrously large (the largest in
the world) economy with barely 4.25% of world population.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgycuGC-SJOWuw15Iod6w4GD0bnn-gchhuOH4gXVH6u9FcsTMcC1FPYzQmoXWUrYoqrSNRIxrii4I7UmLOEvwhJSPmlEXrvfmbK1bHQB-AlEGurymJfdlH8kaJ-APtg839oKz5_UwEf0EcVCRc7TXuJxPwE_p38RrFgmYoVP0J0zs822w2QHQTPoyel/s1280/Bretton%20Woods%20Cartoon%20Manu%20Rishi%20Guptha%20Blog.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="905" data-original-width="1280" height="283" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgycuGC-SJOWuw15Iod6w4GD0bnn-gchhuOH4gXVH6u9FcsTMcC1FPYzQmoXWUrYoqrSNRIxrii4I7UmLOEvwhJSPmlEXrvfmbK1bHQB-AlEGurymJfdlH8kaJ-APtg839oKz5_UwEf0EcVCRc7TXuJxPwE_p38RrFgmYoVP0J0zs822w2QHQTPoyel/w400-h283/Bretton%20Woods%20Cartoon%20Manu%20Rishi%20Guptha%20Blog.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The situation today
is such that the 330 million Americans must continue to over consume,
overspend, waste, create the largest CO2 emissions per capita for the rest of
the world to barely remain in business. Why else does the world shudder when
all the overstretched economic indicators of that country vary by just a few
basis points here or there. Why do Indian Business Channels and all the
analysts on it (5th largest economy in the world with 1/5th of the world
population) spend a large proportion of their time discussing US unemployment,
US interest rates, US Bond Yields and US inflation data when there are 1.6
billion possible topics to discuss back home.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><em><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Infinite power must
come alongside uncompromisable responsibility. Authority if used
indiscriminately is almost always self-destructive </span></em><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Pivot II</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">We can never have
enough but others must have limits</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br />
Nations and Societies must produce something to be able to compete on a global
scale. The developed world became so, by a systematic transfer of wealth and
intellect from all over the world onto its own shores either through illegal
and immoral reigns or through clever immigration policies and thereby creating
a financial and intellectual edge for themselves. While the excesses of all kinds
can simply be represented by the CO2 emissions of a nation per capita, its
ironic that the developing world is forcing the emerging economies to commit to
CO2 reduction even when a large percentage of emerging nations are trying hard
to rise from the depths of poverty through development and industrialisation.
For the record US and Canada produce ~ 14500 Kg of CO2 per capita, Germany
~8600 Kg of CO2 per capita, while India which produces just ~ 1500 Kg of CO2
per capita is being asked to lead the reduction of the greenhouse gases going
forward – obviously at the cost of its growth.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The root cause of
all greed lies in one small marketing gimmick (that became hugely successful in
the US) of bottomless drinks by cola companies at dispensing units. Kids are the
bedrock of the conduct and character of a nation. Future behavior of nations is
etched during the upbringing of kids. Young generations that grow up consuming
infinitely and disproportionately and with a blatant disregard to the society
and environment, eventually shape the character of nations, companies,
families, societies - that can never have enough. Tell me if you have ever seen
a kid from a developed world sharing an ice cream or a meal with a fellow mate
or a sibling. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">When I first went to
the UK for my master's, our cohort went out for a dinner. And like a typical
Indian I proposed that we order a few dishes of each item on the menu that we
all can share. Boy! this proposal of sharing sounded so preposterous to my
western friends that it almost caused a riot in the restaurant. I quietly
retreated and learnt my lesson to never ever propose to share while traveling
abroad. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><em><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Progress is a
function of creating something from scratch that’s everlasting. Snatching from
someone else and adding it to ones own balance sheet is neither sustainable nor
pardonable. Limitless consumption is the root cause of all evil that makes
societies, self-centered, inward-looking, greedy, and selfish.</span></em><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Pivot III</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Iraq War </span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br />
When leaders drive personal agendas at the cost of other nations and the world,
and when these decisions go wrong, these decisions sometimes create an
irreversible pivot that changes the course of the future. Middle East was
reasonably peaceful and within that region ‘the powers that be’ had struck a balance
that lasted decades till Bush started looking for the non-existent WMDs . While
these WMDs are still elusive, the chaos that’s been unleashed in the
middle-east has resulted in a loss of atleast ~2 million lives to </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Iraq_War" target="_blank"><span style="color: #4a6ee0; font-size: 13.0pt;">one or the other form of conflict or
collateral damage</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> since 1991.
‘All for access to Oil’ while preserving (almost never touching) its own
reserves. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">With due respect to
Saddam and while being very aware of his Tyrannies, Iraq was rather prosperous,
powerful and a policeman of the middle-east that contained regional conflict.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">When political
decisions are taken for self-interest and with blatant disregard for other
nations, it creates irreversible imbalances. Even while all war-supporting
leadership of the time - à la Bush and Blair have a lot to answer, this
paper </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10669920701616443" target="_blank"><span style="color: #4a6ee0; font-size: 13.0pt;">‘The US Invasion
of Iraq – Explanations and Implications’</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> by </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/international-relations/people/rh10/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #4a6ee0; font-size: 13.0pt;">Prof. Raymond
Hinnebusch</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> gives a rather
compelling insight as to why </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hegemon" target="_blank"><span style="color: #4a6ee0; font-size: 13.0pt;">hegemons</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> in a certain region are a balancing necessity. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><em><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Strong leaders with
compelling arguments are very impressive and can move opinions among a large
cross-section of people and yet mostly the irreversible damage caused by their
leadership is felt long after they are gone after causing permanent damage to
the soul of nations, corporations and societies.</span></em><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Pivot IV</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Covid</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br />
It’s a different matter that the virus got leaked from the Wuhan Virus Factory,
probably because of someone’s negligence. There is now a reasonably strong
consensus that Covid was work in progress (biological warfare) gone wrong and
countries are developing specialised weapons that can target ethnicities,
specific gene sequences (an aerosol sprayed in an entire theatre of thousands
of people will only kill the people who are intended to die), etc etc. More
effort, resources, and military advancements are being developed to kill rather
than to protect.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Such is the state of
this planet, and this is what has become of us Homo Sapiens, where we are
finding ways to establish supremacy not through superior intellect and goodness
but by our ability to destroy and kill – and kill precisely.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><em><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The Foundation of
success on someone else’s misery or failure is not sustainable and karma will
always come home to roost. Bedrock of progress should be based on superiority
of intellect, education and hard work.</span></em><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Pivot V</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">When remaining
unemployed is better than doing something</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br />
I have more than a few friends living in the developed/ First World countries
who saw their bank accounts getting credited with comfort/hardship money during
Covid. While one country was doling out loans and aid (primarily aid) without
any guarantees so that people could still take holidays during their
thanksgiving weekends and consume goods and services far more than what was
needed, another country started reimbursing the discounts given by pub owners
to their customers. (these are just few of the many bizarre initiatives taken during
the Covid times). All at the cost of the Nation’s Balance Sheet that of course
will have to be paid for by future generations in one form or the other.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The concept of
unemployment benefits is dramatically flawed in the first place. Creating a
path of least resistance that’s ‘provided for by the state’ alters the very
essence of human existence and survival of the fittest. It makes swathes of
generations useless and breeds mediocrity and alters the gene pool of homo
sapiens from hunter-gatherer-survivor to wait-for-the-credit syndrome. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">This is what’s
happening in the developed world. Yes – ‘Developed World’. When a pre-owned
Rolex sells for twice the price of a new one because of a printing machine that
refuses to stop and artificially boosts all available asset classes (Real
Estate, Stocks, Crude Oil, </span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 17.3333px;">Byju’s</span><span style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;">) it only requires more and more of it to keep
there. Failure to sustain the bubble is an obvious collapse – thereby pushing
the world in turmoil and affecting the bottom 70% of the global population –
who in any case were at subsistence level or creating hyperinflation which can
only be controlled by bringing even greater pain.</span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><em><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Financial liquidity
(one that comes not by producing goods, services or addition of economic value)
is like cocaine – every next dose must be slightly more and more powerful, and
the supply must never stop because withdrawal can be fatal – it almost always
is. </span></em><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Pivot VI</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The rapid
deterioration of the climate </span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br />
Every excess has its ramifications. You have a drink you enjoy and perhaps it
is medicinal. You have 5 and you kill yourself. What took millions of years to
form and become part of the reasonably balanced homogeneous planet has pretty
much been destroyed or consumed by us in a matter of less than 150 years.
Fossil fuels, metals, ores, everything has been embowelled from the womb of
mother earth to provide for these excesses. And a mere 2 degrees rise in the
average temperature of earth in the last 150 years, has pretty much melted all
glaciers, alpine slopes, ice shelves. So much so that the Kevin Costner’s
1995 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waterworld" target="_blank"><span style="color: #4a6ee0; font-size: 13.0pt;">‘Waterworld’</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> is no longer fictional but a reality staring at us in
not-so-distant future.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Its snowing where it
never snowed before, it's flooding where it's never flooded before, and the
perennial water sources are now dry. The intensity of the vagaries of nature is
becoming increasingly unpredictable. Large ships used to ply on </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/22/china-drought-causes-yangtze-river-to-dry-up-sparking-shortage-of-hydropower" target="_blank"><span style="color: #4a6ee0; font-size: 13.0pt;">The Yangtze which
is now dry</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> and The
mighty </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/16/colorado-river-faces-climate-change-driven-crisis/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #4a6ee0; font-size: 13.0pt;">Colorado is facing
an existential threat</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">. </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/20/world/rivers-lakes-drying-up-drought-climate-cmd-intl/index.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #4a6ee0; font-size: 13.0pt;">The Rhine, The
Danube, The Po, The Loire it’s the same story</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">. Civilizations since hundreds of thousands of years came about
to settle along the river coasts. It is believed that 80% of the global
population still lives alongside the major global rivers and water sources as
water is the elixir of all forms of existence. But the global warming and
climate change has done it all in just such little time.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">If you have ever
been to the Grand Canyon, one sees the beautiful patterns of fluvial erosion
telling stories. Each sinew of the erosion, barely a few cm below the other,
tells a story of hundreds of thousands of years of the mighty Colorado cutting
through time. In the last 200 years while the Colorado has reached the verge of
dying, imagine how toothless it would feel because there is nothing to cut
because its dropping so fast.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">I have spent close
to a decade working in Kerala – India. Its almost unfathomable that a coastal
area would get flooded. Yet year after year since the last few, floods have
become common, and the entire ecology seems to be on the brink.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Isn’t this too much
a price to pay for being called the purveyors of Industrial Revolution and
progress – that we have totaled it all in a mere 150 years (approx. 0.0037% of
proportion of human existence of 4 Mill years).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><i><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The creation of
everything around us is fascinating, inexplicable, awe inspiring, self-balancing
and GODLY. Nature and Earth will fight back and take it all back what’s been
snatched away from it. We are just visitors representing 2*10<sup>-18 </sup>of
the entire time frame. If we screw this up, we would end up destroying our
present and future forever.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Pivot VII</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Hopelessly trying to
be a global policeman & Underestimating others</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br />
We have all encountered one or the other instance in life or career when an
alleged big boy / person of authority encouraged us to pick a cudgel against
someone else with an assurance of “<em>main hoon na</em> – I am there” only to find out
that’s no one’s there.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Jury is still out
whether Russia s military invasion of Ukraine is right or wrong. It would
require a delve into history and analysis and ramifications of ‘<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/12/russias-belief-in-nato-betrayal-and-why-it-matters-today" target="_blank">NATO s promiseto Gorbachev</a>’ or the ‘<a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1961-1968/cuban-missile-crisis#:~:text=The%20Cuban%20Missile%20Crisis%20of,came%20closest%20to%20nuclear%20conflict." target="_blank">Cuban missile crisis</a>’. But if America was completely
dependent on Russian Oil and Gas like Europe is – America might have actually
allied with Russia to help it accede Ukraine. While all other misadventures,
Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan have failed miserably, US has successfully pushed
the entire Euro region (in the name of allied cooperation) into an economic
turmoil that factories are going bankrupt, utility bills have shot up 5-6 times
and the middle class is being pushed to what’s called energy poverty and people
are struggling to barely keep themselves warm.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">And no country
supporting Ukraine to fight this surrogate war even as much as fathomed or
anticipated that Putin might just change the world order because he controls
the largest nuclear arsenal, largest natural reserves, has been accumulating
gold for last 10 years to challenge the fiat currencies of the west, is teaming
up with another brat – China, has bypassed the SWIFT system of payment and
while all other currencies cant seem to find the bottom on their way down, the
Russian Rouble is up 40% as compared to its long term averages.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">By sanctioning the
foreign reserves of Russia (which were obviously in dollars) US has fired a
bullet, albeit holding the gun backwards where it has scared every other nation
that US can freeze the so called global reserve currency at its own whim and
fancy and all the central bankers are now securing and upping their gold
reserves hedging themselves against the US Dollar and the whims of US of A.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Can one even begin
to imagine that if dollar begins to lose its status of being the reserve
currency, what will happen to an average American who barely has a thousand
dollars in bank while the nation </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_per_capita_public_debt" target="_blank"><span style="color: #4a6ee0; font-size: 13.0pt;">has a per capita debt of ~92000 dollars</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><em><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Everyone has a right
to consider oneself a rockstar or James Bond – just don’t underestimate your
peers or adversaries as </span></em><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://www.dictionary.com/browse/dodo" target="_blank"><em><span style="color: #0e101a; font-size: 14pt;">dodos</span></em></a></span><em><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">. Anticipation of risk & possible outcomes and pre-emptive
strategy is underrated. <br />Confidence to orchestrate a conflict for self interest
in hope of winning is overrated.</span></em><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Pivot VIII</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Assumption that
Credit Card Debts needn’t be paid</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br />
We all (Nations, Individuals) must eventually repay our debts. And debts can
only be paid by free cash generated by adding economic value not merely by
borrowing more or by selling natural resources (as there won't be many natural
resources left to extract and sell in some time). Economic value must be added
by converting intellectual or physical capital to real GDP. And developed
countries will have to figure out how to gradually wean off the dose of the
proverbial free cocaine (read Quantitative Easing) from the system without
killing the addict.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Would any truly
loving family make a credit card in the name of the youngest member (who
doesn’t even know anything) or the one who isn’t yet born and max out the same
for the present indulgences. I have no doubt that the answer is a vehement ‘No’
and yet most of us are doing exactly the opposite.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><em><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Anything that’s
seemingly free and easy isn’t ever. There is no interest-free EMI. There is no
free lunch. Every indulgence must always be paid for or will be a debt of
burden that one’s future generations will have to repay.</span></em><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Pivot IX</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Reversion to mean<br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--></span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/meanreversion.asp" target="_blank"><span style="color: #4a6ee0; font-size: 13.0pt;">Everything reverts
to mean</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> and this
doesn’t only really apply to prices of financial instruments. It applies to
life, it applies to fate, it applies to karmic burdens and rewards, it applies
to the hangover that must be gotten rid of. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Nations that have
built their castles on other's graveyards will have to repay and Societies that
have been deprived of their fair share of resources & success because of
oppression will see a transfer of wealth back sooner rather than later. That’s
just how cyclicity of fate and progress evolves. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Momentary success
leads to overconfidence that leads to hubris that makes you careless thereby making
you commit a blunder leading to misfortune & misery making you work hard to
re-emerge and by that time balance of power shifts. Isn’t that how it has
happened since the last 500 years. The Dutch, The British, The US…… everything
eventually reverted to mean.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><i><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The powers that be,
will find it harder to cede their assumed supremacy thereby leading to periods
of extreme conflict during this transition. At most instances this conflict
will be artificially created to cause adequate distraction and to cling onto
the remnants of usurped authority. So, unless all global leaders consider
themselves and their nations as one among equals for the greater benefit of
humanity and the planet, the imbalances will be impossible to manage.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">India’s role and
fate in the future of this planet<br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--></span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The way we have
fought all incursions over the last 1500 years, the way we survive adversity of
weather, terrorism, economics, loot and plunder and yet carry on. The way we
have become a factory of global corporate talent, and to be born in a true
democracy governed by a constitution that’s truly considered sacrosanct by
every stakeholder in this nation - this is our time. We must learn from our and
others’ past mistakes to become better in every aspect of life and leadership
and future-proof ourselves. Opportunities also often strike just once and if we
fail it this time due to petty politics, bureaucratic stickiness and crony
capitalism we might have to wait for another 7- 8 decades.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">We all went gaga
when we heard </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/bob-sternfels/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #4a6ee0; font-size: 13.0pt;">Bob Sternfels</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> calling this era </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/its-not-indias-decade-its-indias-century-says-mckinseys-bob-sternfels/articleshow/93937057.cms?from=mdr" target="_blank"><span style="color: #4a6ee0; font-size: 13.0pt;">not as India’s
decade but India’s century</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">.
I think its audacious on anyone’s part to even opine on the obvious. India
contributed 25% of the global GDP not too long ago in history - for a
reasonably long period of time. Our achievements in the field of Math, Science
and Astronomy, Business, Economics, Finance and Strategy have been
underappreciated or hijacked. The pall of subservience that lasted till 1947 is
rapidly getting lifted.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><br /><i><span style="font-size: large;"><b>We are slowly yet
steadfastly reverting to mean.<br /><br /></b></span></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 14.95px; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.4px;">If you'd like to receive our newsletter / notes / financial updates, please send ‘<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bolder;">Subscribe Firstname</span>’ to our whatsapp number </span><span lang="EN-IN" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><a href="http://wa.me/917829930000" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0000b0; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.4px;">http://wa.me/917829930000</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.4px;"><o:p style="box-sizing: border-box;"></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0e101a; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 14.95px; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.4px;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />Follow me on twitter<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><a href="https://twitter.com/manurishiguptha" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0000b0; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">@manurishiguptha</a> <br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />Follow MRG Capital<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><a href="https://twitter.com/MRGCAPITAL1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0000b0; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">@MRGCAPITAL1</a> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>Manu Rishi Gupthahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16628261943554617736noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3339821117106681620.post-3924782790780316322022-08-15T17:57:00.002+05:302022-08-16T00:02:22.079+05:305 lessons from life and times of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala – The legendary Bull<p><span style="text-align: justify;">Anyone who is even distantly involved with
stock markets knows Shri Rakesh Radheshyam Jhunjhunwala (RJ) as “The Big Bull”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggzvPiKop0R0BLMJ8tTu4lyLhpIcM1jAuJc77NyW4vEG1-LskFlrkd04qvdkxM5_ggzdLVh-uC2bbMfi3G-O_iNxCl-RykZ3aLX-kA2AVpVWyKHYBfescYm381w023hAgNQ74TxidS-IUJmAvaF_J34nHJnD0B4nTPmh2LzqRNmV9ET9inn3XRDABF/s568/Rakesh%20Jhunjhunwala.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="329" data-original-width="568" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggzvPiKop0R0BLMJ8tTu4lyLhpIcM1jAuJc77NyW4vEG1-LskFlrkd04qvdkxM5_ggzdLVh-uC2bbMfi3G-O_iNxCl-RykZ3aLX-kA2AVpVWyKHYBfescYm381w023hAgNQ74TxidS-IUJmAvaF_J34nHJnD0B4nTPmh2LzqRNmV9ET9inn3XRDABF/s320/Rakesh%20Jhunjhunwala.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />What a nomer to have and outlier of a
recognition in a nation of 1.6 billion people where one of the most remarkable
catalysts of vision and growth amidst all adversities is the bullishness of
each and everyone among us. Floods, Droughts, Terrorism, Catastrophes – nothing
perturbs the spirit of Indian’ness’ because everyone here is a Bull, everyone
has a shameless and unapologetic audacity of hope and where the spirit and
belief of an Indian investor created a FOMO amongst the ilk of all FII/FPIs and
didn’t allow the Indian markets to crash the way others did across the globe.<p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">If not all – a large part of this credit must
be reserved forever for ‘The Big Bull’.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">I had the good fortune to spend an entire day
with RJ some 12 years ago when he invested in Delta Corp and I was heading its
Operations in Goa. (Enough and more has been and will continue to be written
about his investing skills so I will avoid the slack and just stick to the basics).
His sense of humor stood out for me. He was humble, polite, airless and carefree.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Markets are engines of creating enormous
wealth but are meant only for the brave. If you cannot tolerate an upto 50%
drawdown you should get out and stick to Bank FDs etc. Yet inspite of knowing
this theory, we would all look for words of reassurance from RJ whenever markets
tanked in the last 2 decades. His belief and conviction was indomitable and
while he would himself be reeling under losses (during drawdowns – as markets
are impartial and truly secular), yet his presence on TV would always have a
calming effect and millions of investors would always look upto RJ during the
tempests of the market. It almost always seemed that our fraternity was safe
with him as a leader and in control of the ship.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">My learnings from RJ’s life and times have
been immense.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">1. Audacity of imagination and </span></b><b><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 18.4px;">dreams </span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">RJ has been an outlier in his imagination and
calculation. Even if it was mathematically impossible to achieve a 5Tr $ GDP by
2025 or </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/by-2030-nifty-will-hit-125000-says-ace-investor-rakesh-jhunjhunwala/articleshow/45367110.cms?from=mdr" target="_blank"><span style="line-height: 115%;">125000 on Nifty by 2030</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"> (28% CAGR), his optimism has been so damn
infectious that one would start believing him and having faith in the markets.
One would always imagine that India will suddenly be blessed with miracles of
incessant growth (with all the bells and whistles that come along) and would
perhaps be much larger than the largest economy on the planet in no time. If there is anyone who truly believed and professed that India is shining and will continue to do so - It was RJ and he is right.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><i><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Positivity and indomitable belief in a
brighter future is the single most potent catalyst of progression and
evolution. Hopeful leaders, citizens and societies are happy, self reliant,
progressive and above all evolutionary. Targets of growth and progress should
be dramatically out of the whack. Cloud nine seems terribly near when one is
only aiming for the stars. RJ always believed that markets and India would
always go for the fences in every single shot.</span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><i><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">2. Accept Losses<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">RJs loss in </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:ugcPost:6964497455061065728?utm_source=linkedin_share&utm_medium=member_desktop_share&utm_content=post" target="_blank"><span style="line-height: 115%;">AtoZ was approx. 150 Cr</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"> in a single investment. And yet I remember </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:ugcPost:6964497455061065728?utm_source=linkedin_share&utm_medium=member_desktop_share&utm_content=post" target="_blank"><span style="line-height: 115%;">seeing a video</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"> where he spoke kindly of the promoters, accepted
his mistake/wrong judgement and moved on. Even while nursing a large loss he
was hopeful, well diversified and positive. He wished well for the promoters.
That requires a golden heart.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><i><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Everything that happenes in your life is
because of your own karma and judgements. Never ever blame anyone for any
adverse consequences. Accept fate/losses and move on. More time is lost in
analysis of history rather than action for the future. Let go of negativity and
embrace positivity. Rear view mirror of decisions are for the regressive. Keep
moving against the currents, there’s never a failure – only feedback.</span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><i><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">3. Harvest the Crops<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">RJ would always harvest his crops in time and
was quick in removing weeds from the garden of his investments. He was always
quick in accepting mistakes and taking large losses. He has <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/i-dont-ask-for-wealth-but-power-to-give-it-away-jhunjhunwala-lays-down-philanthropy-plans/articleshow/84519760.cms">committed
a large part of his wealth to philanthropy</a> and also led a good life. I hear
that he built one of the most palatial houses recently for his family. May God
bless his family with all the amazing traits he had.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><i><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Every crop must be harvested and every fruit
of labor and effort must be enjoyed. Crops that remain unharvested tend to rot
away and are rendered useless. Enjoy your wealth, spend it for gratification
and seek the power and courage to give away for the greater good of humanity to
find the true purpose of life and probably leave a legacy. There is no fun in
being the richest man in grave.</span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">4. Friends / Hanumans<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Very few people have heard of Mr. </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://youtu.be/HvdqajSXv_0?list=PLjq9mRS1PfGBHw6ZFrzCJUisXBkV97B9c" target="_blank"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Utpal Sheth</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"> the man behind RJ s success and investment
decisions. Sharp, Astute, Soft Spoken and Loyal. Mr. Sheth has spent a large
part of his professional life at RARE Enterprises, and has been the real
tailwind behind RARE. While RJ has been the real Big Bull of all times Utpal Ji
has been the force, energy and strategist behind all these iconic decisions.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><i><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Stick to Friends and colleagues who assist you in winning
all the battles and wars of professional and personal life. Lord Rama without
Lord Hanuman couldn’t have achieved much. But allow your Hanumans to become
Lords in their own right. If you find your Lord Hanuman you are the real
winner.</span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><i><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">On that note I would like to express my most
profound gratitude to my friends, Punith, Nezvilla and Chef Tiger who have
stood by me like a rock in all the ups and downs and sacrificed a lot more for
me than me for them and who would take a proverbial bullet for me and so would
I.</span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><i><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">A leader without an army of true and genuine
Friends / Hanumans is a like a Golden Chariot without wheels. Where would you
go on the <a href="https://arungovil.in/the-ancient-aircraft-in-ramayan-pushpak-viman-ravan-took-sita-in-ramayan.html" target="_blank">Pushpak</a> without a pilot.</span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><i><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Friends for a season or friends for a reason are just waste of time.</span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><i><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">5. 7 pounds at birth to 7 pounds at death<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Every child is born roughly 7 pounds and the
weight of the final urn full of mortal remains at the end is roughly 7 pounds
as well.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">A new born baby is born after fighting all the
adversities of ‘survival of the fittest’ principle of evolution. Every child is born equal and similar. What we make
of our life is entirely in our hand. We are a sum of choices that we make
during the course of our lives. RJ loved to eat and drink and he probably went
overboard to a point of no return. Obesity leads to diabetes (mostly) which
leads to all the malfunctions in ones body. For a man who could buy the best
beach or the best aircraft, struggled, in his own confession, to really walk on
the beach or travel the world in his own aircraft.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><i><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Obesity is the root cause of all evils. Our
genetic makeup is still about 40,000 Yrs old (evolution takes time) where we
had to hunt and fend for ourselves. Last 200 Yrs of development (or
destruction) has made us dormant, lazy and susceptible. Economic progression
has laid the foundation of eventual destruction of this planet. We have stopped
giving rest to our pancreas because we have started believing in the concept of
5 meals a day. We just never stop eating. The concept of intermittent
fasting is nothing more than eating between sunrise and sunset and giving the
rest to ones metabolism for 14-16 hrs a day. That’s what our body needs. Not
the American peddled concept of heavy breakfast of cereals because Mr.
Kellogg wanted to sell his (high fructose) corn flakes.</span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><i><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Human body is the best and most efficient
bank. If calories consumed are more than calories expended, it puts on weight.
If calories expended are more than the calories consumed, it loses weight. Rest
are all excuses that we find to justify our indulgences and lifestyles. No matter what – don’t
put on weight.</span></i><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">We all vie for freedom and yet we spend our
lives enslaved in the bondages of jobs, responsibilities, aspirations. On the
eve of the anniversary of India's 75th
year of freedom, RJ tricked us all and unshackled himself from all bondages and
became free and has left his admirers and well-wishers teary eyed and proud that that there was one helluva
visionary who instilled hope and positivity in an entire generation.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><b>RIP Big Bull – Kickass in heaven and keep an
eye on us.<br /><br />_______</b><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">With inputs from <a href="https://twitter.com/abhymurarka" target="_blank">Abhishek Murarka</a><br /></span></p>Manu Rishi Gupthahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16628261943554617736noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3339821117106681620.post-15283799571397258732022-08-03T13:02:00.091+05:302022-08-05T14:00:25.433+05:30I am Back<p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Emerging from a Year Long Sabbatical</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Silence is the most powerful weapon - To
comprehend, reflect, reminisce, dream, energize and re-emerge.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVRm8TXrzerIfdAohjOEHsu88tHlU55Gy3UvrcDnJ_NBc9Y4FRl5zuCIgiIy9KImryr8Rwad5DjDS1WuNDYtDmFWNPR5tqlrwCKieb2h96k8-A0DpwQn0FZNGNmCvQU_xCODoaiPqVTE6vX8rnjfBlOdAqWaEo4zyap1Ad8T6XWH4j5DKGWvzhr2hE/s1280/Manu%20Rishi%20Guptha%20Sabbatical.jpeg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1007" data-original-width="1280" height="252" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVRm8TXrzerIfdAohjOEHsu88tHlU55Gy3UvrcDnJ_NBc9Y4FRl5zuCIgiIy9KImryr8Rwad5DjDS1WuNDYtDmFWNPR5tqlrwCKieb2h96k8-A0DpwQn0FZNGNmCvQU_xCODoaiPqVTE6vX8rnjfBlOdAqWaEo4zyap1Ad8T6XWH4j5DKGWvzhr2hE/s320/Manu%20Rishi%20Guptha%20Sabbatical.jpeg" width="320" /></a></span></div><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br />The last one year was the most dramatically
beautiful and rewarding year for me.<o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Four of my dreams came true. And in addition a
miracle happened…..<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Firstly<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">After 27 years in the corporate world, having
established some formidable brands in the hospitality industry at the helm of their
operations, I realised my dream to become a full-time finance entrepreneur at
the age of 45 – ‘on time’. Success and failures are the unavoidable crests and
troughs of life and one can live with these, but living with a regret of not
pursuing one’s dream is unpardonable. With this thought, I decided to pursue my
passion of Wealth Management a dream that I have protected and pursued fiercely
since I was 15. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Secondly<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">For a large part of last 2 decades, I had some
differences of opinion with my Dad. I shifted to Chandigarh – suffered a bit,
because I had to leave my wife and daughter alone in Bangalore, but spent a year with Dad and repaired all the emotional Balance Sheets of life. 2 Fathers
spending time with each other has an entirely different perspective rather than
a father and son. I spent the most beautiful few months with Dad, sharing a
drink, singing, learning to play the flute (he was a master flute player) and sadly
lost him to a sudden heart attack in Feb this year. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">If I hadn’t mustered the courage to take
definite steps to spend time with him, and if birth and death are predestined,
I would have been living with the biggest regret for the rest of my life. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">He was an exceptional human being and a very
talented craftsman and I have tried to capture his life in </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/1knfh0easjqqdfw/Obituary%20Dad%2027%20Feb%202022.pdf?dl=0" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">this obituary/ode for him</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Thirdly<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">We opened a new office of our AMC - </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://www.mrgcapital.in/" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">MRG
Capital</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">, in
Chandigarh in addition to Bangalore and partnered with </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/amarpratap-singh-bath-7504451b6/" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Capt. Amar Bath</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">. We discovered each other over a chance
coffee. Amar will be the catalyst of our growth in North India. One thing about
business alliances is the essentiality of congruence of aspirations, life
philosophy, speed, definitions of integrity and above all character. I have
rarely come across such a fine, low decibel and remarkably intelligent
professional.<b><o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Risk Management is an underappreciated yet
most essential element of Fund Management and while everyone talks about it,
human nature that manifests on the bedrock of greed chooses to ignore it again
and again – In life, in relationships, in investment styles because of an
inherent human nature to win every race. I realised that no one understands
risk management better than the Capt. of a ship - in this case Capt Amar, who
is transporting hundreds of thousands of tonnes of gas/oil at cryogenic
temperatures in high seas. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Getting safely from point A to B with cargo
and crew is of far greater importance than to win a race. And that’s how we are
developing the personality of our company where our top priority is Capital
Protection of our clients, over relentless pursuit of generating alpha thereby
throwing caution to wind.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Fourthly<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">We secured a respectable line of credit /
equity from a US based company that will catalyze the success of our future
growth and help us catapult in the direction that we have always dreamt of
taking.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">As a fund manager who has been entrusted to
manage and grow life savings of people, last 12 months have been rather noisy
and tempted me to opine on the narratives of some celebrated Fund Managers who
were professing the charade of BAAP (Buy at any price) and this time its
different, while we were quietly building portfolios for our clients while
sticking to the most commonsensical fundamentals of investing that have
survived the test of time and market cycles over decades.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Clichédly - </span><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">as
Buffett says over a short period of time markets are voting machines and over a
long period of time they are weighing machines.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Its ironical that almost all fund managers
claim to be the disciples of Munger and Buffett and peddle their philosophies
as their own and end up doing exactly the opposite.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">And lastly the miracle<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Its was a rather stressful day in July of ’21,
when Gods Own Company, the celebrated ITC filed a defamation suit of 100 Cr
against me for writing a simple blog asking some pertinent questions, drawing
some efficiency comparisons with their peer group. For a middle-class person
who hasn’t had the luxury of working for companies that pay their executives top dollar for destroying shareholder wealth and thrive in inefficiencies, it was indeed stressful, causing a considerable financial and personal stress. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">But the fate and the macrocosm connived in a beautiful
manner that I was able to put up a formidable defense - even though at a huge personal cost. Am doing my best to counter ITC’s habitual and frivolous lawsuit habit (ITC keeps
filing these defamation cases against anyone who asks a difficult question) and all I can say is time is all powerful.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Good to be back</span></b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> – my dear friends. So many of You reached out
to me, checking on my welfare, health, extending help, encouraging me to write
and above all helping me in so many ways.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Will try and write a weekly now--------<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">And lastly – most of the people in the
financial markets must have absorbed most of the present data points such as - <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"></p><ul><li><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Markets have time and value corrected. They can only go up over a long period
of time. As I post this, markets are already up 2000 points from their lows in
no time.</span></li><li><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Corporate India has steadily grown during this
time.</span></li><li><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Companies have stronger healthier Balance
Sheets.</span></li><li><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Banking is in robust shape.</span></li><li><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">NPA’s are declining.</span></li><li><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">And we as a nation, are more positive and
hopeful of the future than ever before.</span></li><li><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Investments must be made during extreme
despair and misery when the economic indicators or externalities are predicting
an economic doomsday.</span></li></ul><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">BECAUSE<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The world has only progressed, survived,
become more intelligent over generations and homo-sapiens evolve at an alarmingly
fast rate to tide over all the temporary vicissitudes of life to make the world
and species better.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 13pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br />About MRG Capital.</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">We have only 1 objective at </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://www.mrgcapital.in/" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">MRG
Capital</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">, Protect our
client’s wealth, avoid stupid mistakes and stick to sound and tested investment
rationales/philosophy. And Our asset management fees is one of the lowest in the
industry. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The real performance or the strength
of the fund/ PMS can only be gauged when the portfolios are compared in terms
of resilience shown by other portfolios during the downtrend.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Below is the snapshot of how our
different portfolios performed during the recent market crash,</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhteFyvAYhWVof2soruMVgaQineI0mflByrmttiwjph2SSGMBk-X5sNIbWrnNrvlkujSPRa2oSxLf2boYo6iPYP_oDSpyE8FZGHRrSqlCXiE7a2Rq0FUejCQCszA23TjPbAAYHaGbO37HbGO1aDJf-GRFLqb0JJ1COd_XZQXObHwIyB_lXwda0k-X88/s876/Picture2.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="170" data-original-width="876" height="78" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhteFyvAYhWVof2soruMVgaQineI0mflByrmttiwjph2SSGMBk-X5sNIbWrnNrvlkujSPRa2oSxLf2boYo6iPYP_oDSpyE8FZGHRrSqlCXiE7a2Rq0FUejCQCszA23TjPbAAYHaGbO37HbGO1aDJf-GRFLqb0JJ1COd_XZQXObHwIyB_lXwda0k-X88/w400-h78/Picture2.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><a name="_Hlk110425402"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: medium;">While our Maximiser portfolio purposely
comprises of some high conviction investments, it has underperformed during the
downturn since Oct’21 because of its high Beta, our Enhancer and Protector
funds have outperformed the index with lower standard deviations.<o:p></o:p></span></span></a></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">We didn’t want to abandon our faith in some
large cap IT companies during the recent downturn. A large part of my wealth
was invested in Infosys when the “Vishal Sikka” saga was at its peak and the
legend Mr. Narayana Murthy was taking on all flak just because he wanted the
core values of Infy to be upheld. I posted a strong rebuttal to Mr </span><a href="https://www.huffpost.com/archive/in/entry/ex-infosys-board-member-omkar-goswami-s-scathing-open-letter-to-narayana-murthy-is-a-joke_a_23178774" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Omkar
Goswami through this blog that was published on Huffington Post</span></a><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">
in response to </span><a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/ites/when-you-gotta-go-you-gotta-go-former-infosys-board-member-tells-murthy-in-open-letter/articleshow/60169401.cms?from=mdr" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">his
scathing criticism of Mr. Murthy</span></a><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">. Well what can I say, it turned out to be –
not such a bad investment afterall.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: medium;">Other PMS funds have
cut their IT exposure while we continue to believe in the story of ‘IT’ being
the only consistent sector which has predictable earnings growth, reliable cash
flows, dividend history and above all good corporate governance. We added more of
IT after its significant correction and expect the street fears to dissipate as
the sector reports improved earnings over the next few quarters.</span></span></p></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
Write to me at </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="mailto:manu@mrgcapital.in"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">manu@mrgcapital.in</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> for feedback, free portfolio advice (no
strings attached), suggestions for topics that you would like covered in future
articles or just about anything.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.5pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0cm 0cm 1pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 0cm 1.0pt 0cm; padding: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p></div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Our Services:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Portfolio Management Services:</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">We offer discretionary portfolio
management services with an aim to deliver respectable returns to our clients. Our
investment portfolio consists of stocks, fixed income, debt and cash and the
portfolio would be tailored to meet specific investment objectives of the
client.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><a name="_Hlk108855319"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">We
have </span></a><a href="https://www.mrgcapital.in/our-products/" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108855319;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">3
investment products</span></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108855319;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> which are curated keeping client’s Age, Risk
profile and Tenure of Investment</span></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTable15List6Colorful" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-insideh: .5pt solid windowtext; mso-border-insidev: .5pt solid windowtext; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; width: 425px;">
</table><table class="table table-striped">
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col">Product </th>
<th scope="col"><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-weight: 400; line-height: normal; mso-yfti-cnfc: 1; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-IN"><b>Reco Age</b><br /></span><b>bracket</b></p></th><th scope="col"><b style="text-align: left;">Risk Profile</b></th>
<th scope="col"><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-weight: 400; line-height: normal; mso-yfti-cnfc: 1; text-align: left;"><b>Reco<br />Tenure (Yrs)</b></p></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th scope="row"><b style="text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://www.mrgcapital.in/contact-us/" target="_blank">Wealth Maximizer</a></span></b></th>
<td>Up to 40 Years</td>
<td>High</td>
<td>6 – 10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th scope="row"><b style="text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://www.mrgcapital.in/contact-us/" target="_blank">Wealth Enhancer</a></span></b></th>
<td>30 - 55 Years</td>
<td>Med - High</td>
<td>4 – 8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th scope="row"><b style="text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://www.mrgcapital.in/contact-us/" target="_blank">Wealth Protector</a></span></b></th>
<td>Above 50 Yrs</td>
<td>Med - Low</td>
<td>3 - 5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;"><i style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Note: As per SEBI guidelines the minimum investment amount is Rs
50L.</span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Advisory Services:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">We use Smallcase as a platform to
provide </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://mrgcapital.smallcase.com/" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Advisory services</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> to our clients, It is a DIY platform where we
would only suggest investment ideas. The choice as well as the execution of the
investment decisions rest solely with the Investor. You can subscribe to Our
Core portfolios directly through your broker. If you have a broking account
through any one of </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://help.smallcase.com/en/articles/5678603-which-are-the-broker-platforms-currently-live-with-smallcase" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">these 11 brokers</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">, </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://help.smallcase.com/en/articles/5559433-smallcase-subscriptions" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">setting up a smallcase account</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> is just a 10 min job. You can buy / sell
multiple stocks with 1 click and the stocks you buy are held in Your existing
demat account. We have curated 3 baskets of stocks by keeping in mind the client’s Age, Risk profile and Tenure of Investment.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p><table class="table table-striped"><thead><tr><th scope="col">Product </th><th scope="col"><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-weight: 400; line-height: normal; mso-yfti-cnfc: 1; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-IN"><b>Reco Age</b><br /></span><b>bracket</b></p></th><th scope="col"><b style="text-align: left;">Risk Profile</b></th><th scope="col"><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-weight: 400; line-height: normal; mso-yfti-cnfc: 1; text-align: left;"><b>Reco<br />Tenure (Yrs)</b></p></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><th scope="row"><b style="text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://mrgcapital.smallcase.com/smallcase/MRGMO_0001" target="_blank">Wealth Maximizer</a></span></b></th><td>Up to 40 Years</td><td>High</td><td>6 – 10</td></tr><tr><th scope="row"><b style="text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://mrgcapital.smallcase.com/smallcase/MRGMO_0002" target="_blank">Wealth Enhancer</a></span></b></th><td>30 - 55 Years</td><td>Med - High</td><td>4 – 8</td></tr><tr><th scope="row"><b style="text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://mrgcapital.smallcase.com/smallcase/MRGMO_0003" target="_blank">Wealth Protector</a></span></b></th><td>Above 50 Yrs</td><td>Med - Low</td><td>3 - 5</td></tr></tbody></table><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">If you'd like to receive our newsletter / notes / financial updates,
please send ‘<b>Subscribe Firstname</b>’ to our whatsapp number </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="http://wa.me/917829930000" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">http://wa.me/917829930000</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p><br />Follow me on twitter <br /><a href="https://twitter.com/manurishiguptha" target="_blank">@manurishiguptha</a> <br /><br />Follow MRG Capital <br /><a href="https://twitter.com/MRGCAPITAL1" target="_blank">@MRGCAPITAL1</a> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><b><i><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Definitions<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Standard deviation:</span></b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> Portfolio returns go up or down on daily
basis due to the movements in the prices of their stock holdings. Standard
deviation tells you how much the portfolio returns over a period of time vary
from their average value. If the value is too high, that means the portfolio
returns are very volatile and risky to invest in<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="color: red;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><br /><p></p>Manu Rishi Gupthahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16628261943554617736noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3339821117106681620.post-17705995807920486742021-06-16T16:33:00.003+05:302021-07-15T15:17:56.176+05:30Magic, Illusion or just Trickery – The story of ITC<p></p><p style="line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>Quarterly Magic of ITC
Numbers</i><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p></p><p style="line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: inherit; text-align: justify;">The
greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist.
And looking at the way ITC is managed, it can be said with reasonable certainty
-</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">
The greatest trick the ITC is pulling is to convince its shareholders that its
board exists and is indeed responsible for the company.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuWHt2acWz67Nn9NRoVf0hrNkTyWrhJk55wlB0QFAxxwkESX79XmbLCpfNqYB9lAXZ9719tr9ZjWzaAEW2JBllDjRnhhguUBl213oxjLyo5PphBPR-7-Dab7R7_6Mj7grcmfCwolS1m8g/s1280/ITC+Blog+2+Cartoon+-+Manu+Rishi+Guptha.jpeg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="905" data-original-width="1280" height="283" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuWHt2acWz67Nn9NRoVf0hrNkTyWrhJk55wlB0QFAxxwkESX79XmbLCpfNqYB9lAXZ9719tr9ZjWzaAEW2JBllDjRnhhguUBl213oxjLyo5PphBPR-7-Dab7R7_6Mj7grcmfCwolS1m8g/w400-h283/ITC+Blog+2+Cartoon+-+Manu+Rishi+Guptha.jpeg" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br />The
alarming regularity with which the stock price is manipulated weeks before
every quarterly result, the rumours about the demerger, stellar results round
the corner, special dividend in the offing and buyback, only to be disappointed
quarter after quarter - is nothing short of a movie plot. The <b>retail
investors also known as the hopeful romantics</b> within the ITC
fraternity, keep buying the stock, while Wealth Managers across the country
have created an entirely new and risk-free business model of selling ATM call
options month after month and making a killing, as they exactly know where the
stock is going - <b>NOWHERE</b> </span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Here’s
the secret Y’e stupid shareholders of the ITC</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">ITC
will never ever demerge its businesses as the present comfort of the high tide
that hides all the executives that are swimming without pants will get exposed.
The cash machine that ITC is, through its cigarette business is good enough to
keep the party going for a very long time.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">And
no one likes the party to end isn’t it?</span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">When
I wrote <a href="https://twitter.com/manurishiguptha/status/1312998486011342849?s=20">this
piece some 8 months ago</a> asking some pertinent questions to the board,
the least they could have done was to gather some data, do some math and
respond with a sound and logical rebuttal or future strategy, especially when
thousands of shareholders resonated with my thoughts all over the
world, but obviously rebuttals require courage, facts, demonstration of intent
and a clear conscience – all of which seem to be missing in ITC.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Can
we even begin to imagine if ITC was managed / owned by Mr. Ambani or Mr. Adani
how happy we minority shareholders would have been? Or if the representatives
of SUUTI, LIC and a few Mutual Funds along-with BAT could discover their spines
jointly, and make the management answerable – ITC has the potential to be one
of the best companies in India. But alas….</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">So while the latest investor
presentation used the word robust 31 times and growth 41 (the same is missing
from actual performance), it has no mention of shareholders, reduction in
executive compensation during the pandemic year but they did try and take
credit of reducing “controllable” fixed costs. Fixed costs are uncontrollable
and that’s why it requires serious executive courage to control them.
Controllable Fixed costs? – Are you kidding me?.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">At
a time when the entire listed corporate world has left shareholders spellbound
in the last 15 months, with appreciable reduction in costs, stellar EBITDA
margins, efficiency not seen in the last decade, ITC has at best established
itself as a mediocre company with a mediocre P&L, poor decision making and
afraid of taking any meaningful steps that are value accretive for its
shareholders. – </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><i><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">details later here…..<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The
talk of a robust dividend yield is akin to shifting money from one pocket to
the other because the board doesn’t have the courage to declare a buyback for
the fear of losing control and were gleefully diluting the value of minority
shareholders till recently, when BAT put an end to equity dilution
through <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/bat-turns-down-itc-proposal-to-hand-out-esops/articleshow/66095837.cms?from=mdr">issuing
stock options in year 2018</a>. Since then, the company has changed its policy
and it gives Stock Appreciation Rights (SARs) which entails more cash-outflow
for the company. We aren’t sure that the principle of <span class="msoins0"><span class="msoIns"><ins cite="mailto:Manu%20Rishi%20Guptha" datetime="2021-06-15T14:06">'</ins></span></span>High Water Mark' is being
followed to ensure that SAR isn’t brought lower to adjust to the stock’s
abysmal performance.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Isn’t
it surprising that the top management of ITC, despite generous grants of stock
over the years, owns less stock than perhaps me and my family and are selling
their stock with alarming regularity. So much for the confidence in their own
executive abilities. The issue of ESOPs and <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/xowmqcc2aw0wm4p/ITC%20Insider%20Trading%20June%202021.xls?dl=0">quick-sale
data is available here</a>.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Fun
fact : Just top 282 employees of ITC sold shares worth 1024 Cr in the last 3
years. And the top 10 sold shares worth 190 Cr. The real <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaun_Banega_Crorepati">KBC</a> is
being played here at the cost of minority shareholders.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">SEBI
came out with a bold skin in the game reform for the mutual fund managers
by mandating that a minimum of 20% of the compensation of
mutual fund managers and other key personnel in an asset management company
(AMC) should be in the form of units of the mutual fund schemes they manage.. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">I
wrote a <a href="http://manurishiguptha.blogspot.com/2018/07/skin-in-game-reform-game-changer-in-mf.html" target="_blank">recommendation piece about the same some 3 years ago</a> and when I heard of this reform,
I was pleasantly chuffed about it. I am proposing 2 more reforms and will write
to SEBI soon that :</span> </span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">a.<span style="font-stretch: normal;"> Companies that don’t have a promoter
shouldn’t allow its executives to draw a compensation beyond a pre-defined
threshold and all other compensation should only be in form of dividends generated
through restricted stock options monetizable only upon end of employment.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">b.<span style="font-stretch: normal;"> The other skin in the game reform for
promotor-less companies where the promoter or the KMP has less than 20% stake
should definitely have a representation of minority shareholders on the board
and that too in the proportion of their stake.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">That would indeed be another set of
‘skin in the game reforms’ for promoter-less corporations.<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">If
this would’ve been the norm and discipline, one celebrated CEO of an American
corporation wouldn’t have been allowed to fly fresh salmon from Norway for
lunch in the company’s private jet. The folklore has it that he was terribly
fond of Salmon.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">But
lets get back to the recent stellar quarter of ITC and study the ‘<b>FMCG giant
in the making</b>’ narrative:</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">1. </span><span style="font-stretch: normal; text-indent: -18pt;">Companies that make significant growth, report
their numbers in absolute<span style="font-stretch: normal;"> <span style="font-stretch: normal;">numbers
and the ones<span style="font-stretch: normal;"> that enjoy growth on the base
effect of extreme underperformance only talk in percentages.</span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18pt; mso-add-space: auto; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">2.</span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; text-indent: -18pt;"> While Marico (Sales up – 10% y/y, PAT up – 15% y/y), Britannia (Sales up
- 13% y/y, PAT up – 33% y/y), and Dabur (Sales up – 10% y/y, PAT up – 17% y/y )
grew at a remarkable pace, ITC sales de-grew by (2%) and PAT de-grew by (15%).
ITC has almost become like a few other PSU Banks where “the worst is behind us”
and “the future is bright” narrative is being peddled for years, quarter after
quarter while the balance sheet at the cost of tax payers needs to be
recapitalised ever so frequently and here in the case of ITC, the minority
shareholders are underwriting the underperformance.</span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">3.</span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; text-indent: -18pt;"> Further
its pertinent to note that a large part of the FMCG growth came from a very
very expensive acquisition of <b>Sunrise</b> which means that for every Rs 1 of
growth in revenues, the shareholders paid Rs 4.</span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">4.</span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; text-indent: -18pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">Remove the Sunrise acquisition, and the revenues from Aashirwaad
atta (where the EBIDTA margins are negligible) the real growth would be much
lower.</span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">5.</span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; text-indent: -18pt;"> “Value
Accretive M&A” is a meaningless metric until ITC acquires another company
that’s trading at cheaper valuations than itself. And thereby creating some
shareholder value. M&A at the cost of free-cash that generates lower ROE
than treasury yields is nothing short of financial hara-kiri.</span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">6.</span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; text-indent: -18pt;"> Recently
a new kid on the block – Rossari Biotech trading at 80 PE acquired Unitop
Chemicals trading at 10 PE (just an example). But ITC is the only generous and
philanthropic organisation that itself barely manages to trade at 19 PE but
acquired Sunrise at 38 PE. So much for its negotiation ability and size leverage.</span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">7.</span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-stretch: normal; text-indent: -18pt;"> ROCE
of ITC has been dramatically falling. In just last 5-6 years alone the ROCE has
declined from 50% to just 29%.</span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><b style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">8.<span style="font-stretch: normal;"></span></span></b><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -18pt;"></span><span style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;"> </span><b style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">With
a consistently falling EPS and ROCE the cash generation will likely not keep up
with the abysmally low shareholder expectation of atleast earning dividends
that match treasury yields and ITC will be forced to dip into their cash
reserves thereby weakening the only reasonable moat around their balance sheet.</b></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">Hotels</span></b><span style="line-height: 115%;"><u1:p></u1:p><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><u2:p></u2:p>This
division can single handedly bring the entire ITC down. Someone from the
industry recently informed me that ITC keeps building hotels because one
(deceased now) earlier Chairman liked hotels. Wow that’s some real compelling
investment argument to destroy shareholder wealth. ITC hotels hasn’t been able to
develop its own distribution network in so many years and relies on Marriott
and Preferred for its booking engine and loyalty program. And it talks of
creating a world class brand.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Allow
the powers that be in the hotel division to raise funds, deal with financial
institutions, consider capital an expensive and rare resource and then make
investment decisions and only then gloat in the glory of making green hotels
and winning global awards. Every investment and every new hotel would then seem
like a wasteful expenditure. But then the past Chairman liked hotels……..</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">If
managers don’t have the ability to raise and manage capital and understand the
concept of ROCE, then either the managers need to be replaced or the businesses
sold off.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Rather
than trying to acquire Oberoi hotels (through the present 14% ownership) for
the purpose of empire building, ITC should sell their hotels to some global
hospitality chain that has the edge of a superior global brand recall and a
distribution network. That indeed would be value accretive for shareholders.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">All
the We-assure and the marketing campaigns that the hotel division indulged in
couldn’t prevent an <a href="https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/itc-grand-chola-chennai-luxury-hotel-turns-covid-hotspot-after-85-test-positive-675697">outbreak
in the Chennai hotel</a> when the entire hotel had to be shut down.
Marketing is good, but gimmicks are misleading especially in the face of the
ferocity of Covid-19.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">If
hospitality was a separate division, the mettle of the managers would have come
to fore and perhaps the expression “house of cards” would be exemplified if
they would have had to raise working capital through ECLGS, deal with financial
institutions, institute meaningful salary cuts and worry about cash to sustain
rather than dip in papa’s pocket whenever money runs out.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Can
we – the minority shareholders know the equity invested and ROE (return on
Equity) only in the Hotel division alone please?</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">The
segment assets of 6,525 Crores (post an approx. 30 yr opportunity cost)
tantamounts to approx. equity worth more than approx. Rs. 50,000 crore
destroyed in hotel division alone</span></b><span style="line-height: 115%;">. And we aren’t even talking of
Capital Work in Progress that will further erode the shareholder wealth. This
money over 30 years with any half-wise capital allocation would have added
atleast Rs. 2-3 lac crores (26 – 39 billion USD) in market cap alone</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">FMCG</span></b><span style="line-height: 115%;"><u1:p></u1:p><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><u2:p></u2:p>Agri
business grew at 23% for the year but the EBIT that should have grown better or
more only grew at 11% resulting in EBIT margin going down from 8% to 7% (Poor
operating leverage). <b>Does that mean that there is a possibility that Agri
margin is being sacrificed to prop up the margins of FMCG business through
transfer pricing tricks thereby misleading shareholders?</b><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
Or does this mean that the company has no clue or understanding or internal
controls to increase operating leverage??<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><u2:p></u2:p><u2:p> <o:p></o:p></u2:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">FMCG
- Peer Group Comparison</span></b><span style="line-height: 115%;"><u1:p></u1:p><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<u1:p></u1:p></p><div align="center"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxwEtF8Ep7DWfkK3-RtkU-l-amnfOk25Ak6dxPrFzIHOjAeeV4oGM08OV0p0EIFP4CCnzTNrjVMYqY4zTn66RpKAvUMcnQelcVhXaUuLL_yoj25OlTcnzJv9yd3SpoyCvtINKFWqSA9x4/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img alt="" data-original-height="436" data-original-width="602" height="335" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxwEtF8Ep7DWfkK3-RtkU-l-amnfOk25Ak6dxPrFzIHOjAeeV4oGM08OV0p0EIFP4CCnzTNrjVMYqY4zTn66RpKAvUMcnQelcVhXaUuLL_yoj25OlTcnzJv9yd3SpoyCvtINKFWqSA9x4/w427-h335/image.png" width="427" /></a></div><br /><br />
</div><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Now
if there was a <i>my-baap</i> in ITC these numbers would have been
treated like murder – but we have no doubt that the powers that be in the FMCG
division would not only have got ample pats on their backs but also huge
increments and ESOPS (needless to say – value destructive for minority
shareholders) </span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">All Hope isn’t lost</span></b><span lang="EN-US"><u1:p></u1:p><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">While
much has been debated about ITC’s strategic decisions on business ventures,
capital allocation and performance of the businesses, all hope is not lost as
company can alter its approach and enhance shareholder’s value through a few
short term and long term initiatives which are presented below –<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 18pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><u2:p></u2:p>1)<span style="font-stretch: normal;"></span></span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"></span> <strong><span lang="EN-US">Hotels</span></strong><span lang="EN-US"> –
While company has created admirable properties across India, The present
management neither runs these with any sense of ownership (would have been
reflected in the numbers else) nor do they take decisions that are prudent in
the interest of shareholders.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 18.0pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 18pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Due to the evolving dynamics of the industry, hotels are not
value accretive as these have very long gestation periods. Further, the
pandemic has grounded even the most ardent believers of face-to-face meetings
and have compelled them to adopt the ‘new normal’ of Zoom and WFH, and this
trend will permanently impair business travel as demand side will dramatically
drop.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 18.0pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a; font-weight: normal;"><u2:p></u2:p>The</span></strong><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">pandemic
provides a great opportunity to sell the hotel division ‘NOW and HERE’ rather
than continuously bleed the consolidated B/S and putting good money after bad.<u2:p></u2:p></span><span lang="EN-US"><u1:p></u1:p><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 18.0pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">If the
wishes of the past chairman are so dear, then reimagine the division to make it
profitable and figure out <b>WHY</b> (do we exist), <b>HOW</b> (will we
prosper) and <b>WHAT</b> (needs to be done).</span><span lang="EN-US"><u1:p></u1:p><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></strong></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; mso-line-height-alt: 13.8pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">Value Unlocking:</span></strong><span lang="EN-US"><u2:p></u2:p><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">a)
<b>Demerge</b> the business which will bring financial discipline and bring
more accountability as mentioned earlier</span><span lang="EN-US"><u1:p></u1:p><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><u2:p></u2:p>Or</span><span lang="EN-US"><u1:p></u1:p><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">b)
<b>REIT</b> - Develop a REIT structure, divest stake in the business to a
global alternate asset manager who is looking to lock capital for a longer
period to time. All the owned assets can be transferred to a separate trust and
properties could be leased back at an attractive yield. Not only would this
make the managers accountable, as they would have to earn to pay the lease, but
also this would unlock the shareholder equity to the tune of approx. Rs. 25,000
crores and thereby become an efficient Operating Company (OpCo)</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">Or</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">c)
<b>Sell all the owned assets</b> to strategic players i.e., global hotel chains
to focus on Cigarette and FMCG business. </span><span lang="EN-US"><u1:p></u1:p><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><u2:p></u2:p>Or</span><span lang="EN-US"><u1:p></u1:p><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">d)
<b>Become a Property Company</b> (PropCo) and get some of the best global
operators to manage hotels</span><span lang="EN-US"><u1:p></u1:p><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 18pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></b></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 18pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></b></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 18.0pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 18pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span lang="EN-US">2)</span></b><span lang="EN-US"> <b>FMCG</b></span><span lang="EN-US"> –
Building FMCG companies from scratch can take years. The company has done a
commendable job in building some widely recognized brands by channelizing its
strong distribution network. However, ITC has high volume and low margin
businesses, and products are largely ‘Me too’. If the company were to achieve
Rs. 100,000 crores target by 2030 (<a href="https://www.itcportal.com/media-centre/press-reports-content.aspx?id=1966&type=C&news=Achieving-Rs-1-lakh-crore-in-FMCG-continues-to-be-ITCs-aspiration-says"><span style="color: black; text-decoration-line: none;">Vision
statement</span></a>) the top-line of FMCG should grow by ~23% in the face of
cigarette sales degrowing by 5% YOY over the decade which is much higher than
the present 13% growth rate. But I am sure ITC is managed by magicians and this
growth wont be hard to achieve. We have faith in the magical powers of the
executives but pls don’t behave like a minister who recently, famously said –
“don’t go into numbers and don’t do math” have faith.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 18.0pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 18pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Tatas, Ambani and Damani are all getting into D2C and private
labels to create an edge. Use the power of your network to take advantage of
the large fortune at the bottom of the pyramid rather than wasting time selling
some expensive chocolate that will remain unprofitable. If ITC doesn’t evolve
or acquire (not at Sunrise valuations) some new-age businesses, it faces an
existential crisis in the modern well connected e-world.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></strong></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; mso-line-height-alt: 13.8pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">Strategy</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">:<u2:p></u2:p></span><span lang="EN-US"><u1:p></u1:p><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 18pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></b></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 18.0pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 18pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">a)<span style="font-stretch: normal;"></span></span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"></span> <strong><span lang="EN-US">Product
Innovation/Creation of category</span></strong><span lang="EN-US">: Stop
being a me-too company through Yipee and Sunfeast biscuit. Create a new game-changing
category.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 18.0pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 18pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">Tell me the second man on the Moon and the Everest – no one
knows them. And ITC should stop being a distant No.2. Unless ITC gets its mojo
to create and sustain a category, it has no future.</span><span lang="EN-US"><u1:p></u1:p><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 18pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></b></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 18.0pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 18pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">b)<span style="font-stretch: normal;"></span></span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"></span> <strong><span lang="EN-US">Spotting
trends early: </span></strong><span lang="EN-US">While market share gradually
shifts from unorganized to organized, it is a multi-year process and this
seldom results in high margins. Few of the interesting areas that look
promising are Frozen food market, Adult Health & Nutraceuticals,
Cosmeceuticals etc.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 18pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></b></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 18.0pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 18pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">c)<span style="font-stretch: normal;"></span></span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"></span> <strong><span lang="EN-US">Geographical
Diversification</span></strong><span lang="EN-US">: ITC is ITC – don’t allow
regional players such as Adani Wilmar to
weed you out. Get your act together or you wont exist.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 18pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></b></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 18.0pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 18pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">d)<span style="font-stretch: normal;"></span></span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"></span> <strong><span lang="EN-US">Contract
Manufacturing</span></strong><span lang="EN-US">: Demonstrate the power of
the ITC brand to outsource a large %age of products to contract manufacturers
and free up capital. ITCs incessant desire to do all-by-myself is hurting its
shareholders.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></strong></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></strong></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">3)</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">
<strong>IT Services</strong> -
Demonstrate the ability to become the </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.lntinfotech.com/">Larsen and Toubro Infotech</a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"> or
stop pretending to be an IT company and allow the super-efficient Board to be
distracted. There is no way that ITC Infotech can ever become anything
meaningful or it would have already become.<u2:p></u2:p></span><span lang="EN-US"><u1:p></u1:p><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></strong></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></strong></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">4)</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"> <strong>Cigarettes</strong> and
general – As the capex requirements are complete, the company should return the
money to the shareholders in form of buybacks. Rs. 60,000 crores buyback can be
planned for next 6 years, utilizing existing bank balances and the rest through
borrowing. Theoretically, if the earnings yield is more than the post-tax
borrowing of the company, the company should do a buyback until such time that
palatable debt is reached. Debt magnifies RoEs and buyback reduces the equity
base, both done today maximizes returns for shareholders.<u2:p></u2:p><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">But
that would mean sacrificing a bit of control to BAT – but <b>Boards that
mean well for the company and its shareholders think beyond the virtues of
selfishness and control freakery.</b></span><span lang="EN-US"><u1:p></u1:p><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></strong></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; mso-line-height-alt: 13.8pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">Overall -</span></strong><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></strong></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">1)</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"> <strong>Selling Non-core assets</strong> –
Small business should be sold or shut down. Stakes held in other hotel chains
should be sold at optimal valuation as of yesterday.<u2:p></u2:p></span><span lang="EN-US"><u1:p></u1:p><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></strong></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">2) Shareholder
Communication – </span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">Company of this size
should have analyst concalls, provide definitive guidance on the numbers. (the
way Infosys does)<u2:p></u2:p></span><span lang="EN-US"><u1:p></u1:p><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></strong></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">3)</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"> <strong>CAPEX Guidance</strong> –
Company of this size should declare its capex plans so that it can be built in
pricing of financial models.<u2:p></u2:p></span><span lang="EN-US"><u1:p></u1:p><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></b></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; mso-line-height-alt: 13.8pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">And above all<u1:p></u1:p> -</span></b><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></strong></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;">4)</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"> <strong>Appoint Minority Shareholder Directors</strong> –
The company should onboard an eminent small shareholder director with a
relevant experience so as to amplify the importance of retail shareholders as
well.<u2:p></u2:p></span><span lang="EN-US"><u1:p></u1:p><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 13.8pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a;"><br />
A family can never be fatherless. And if it is – the minority shareholder
should become the deemed one.</span><span lang="EN-US"><u1:p></u1:p><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">When someone posts an opinion or an
article on ITC, the emotion and response that it generates is overwhelming. If
the true meaning of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_syndrome">Stockholm Syndrome</a> needs
to be understood, delve deep into the mind of an ITC shareholder – That’s the
Enigma of ITC. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">During
my hospital visit to look upon someone some years ago, I learnt that the ECG
monitor of a dead person is just a straight line. ITC stock price graph reminds
me of that line I saw years ago because the price is more stable and straighter
than that line.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Long live ITC…..<br /><br /><a href="https://twitter.com/manurishiguptha">Twitter </a></b></span><span style="text-align: left;"><b><a href="https://twitter.com/manurishiguptha">https://twitter.com/manurishiguptha</a></b></span></p>Manu Rishi Gupthahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16628261943554617736noreply@blogger.com43tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3339821117106681620.post-36776098538594402002021-05-10T19:25:00.002+05:302021-05-10T19:49:18.168+05:30Hope amidst Virus, Vaccines, Quarantine and Quaintness<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The
reality of Covid doesn’t really hit you till it hits you. March of 2020 through
Sep Oct while Covid ravaged thru the planet, India seemingly remained unscathed
- more so when the same was analysed in relation to the large population base.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1YWr6jb8CzjDGqPqkOObufp7jYydGFAedgrC4rj82BGxGKts6TOdP1wCUvMnRkJFkAyoYpwTwQdUFbGE_6PgVVRR-GTMQ-Rif1dgwftJy3yxQHmSH7YqIYA3Z2bYAwYmxAXARiRoZBjo/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="905" data-original-width="1280" height="283" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1YWr6jb8CzjDGqPqkOObufp7jYydGFAedgrC4rj82BGxGKts6TOdP1wCUvMnRkJFkAyoYpwTwQdUFbGE_6PgVVRR-GTMQ-Rif1dgwftJy3yxQHmSH7YqIYA3Z2bYAwYmxAXARiRoZBjo/w400-h283/Manu+Rishi+Guptha+Blog+on+Covid+Hope.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-size: 12pt;">As
early as May 2020 the street vendors were back in business selling </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panipuri" style="font-size: 12pt;">paani poori</a><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> and the food appreciating
Indian population thronged back to restaurants and bars and pubs by October and
large part of Indian population took refuge of the Pent-up desires and most of
the service providers thought that just wearing a glove (all day without
changing those) solved for the situation at hand. The powers that be were quick
to take credit of flattening the proverbial curve and at one instance the </span><a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/india-bent-covid-curve-like-beckham-growth-on-solid-ground-reserve-bank/articleshow/80392496.cms?from=mdr" style="font-size: 12pt;">RBI
governor even derived an analogy of flattening the virus curve by bending it
like Beckham</a><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> and almost took credit for it.</span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The
abject neglect of virus lessons from around the world can be interpreted as the
amazing power of human resilience and the ability of homo-sapiens to move on
from one crisis to another and survive and thrive OR sheer plain stupidity of
ignoring expert advice by subject matter experts, thereby putting themselves
and fellow humans in peril.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The
Second Wave has hit our country in a manner that no one had anticipated and the
shock and awe as a result is unfathomable. The horrific stories, loss of lives,
unavailability of resources (medicines, oxygen, hospital beds and even
cremation slots) has traumatized the entire nation.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">If
you read a lot you become hypochondriac, and if you don’t you catch the virus
and if you are unlucky you get it nevertheless to one’s surprise.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">My
experiences of going through the virus
curve<br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Till
April 2021 my family and I managed to exercise all restraint, follow protocols,
wear a mask and avoided all unnecessary travel.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Zealously
we ensured that all elders were vaccinated </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">at the first available opportunity and I took my
first vaccine shot the day I became eligible on the 1 April. Maybe to be slyly
fooled by the vaccine itself on the April Fools Day.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Of
Vaccines..</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I
took the vaccine (COVAXIN) as directed – (first day first show) and by the end
of the day my energy levels started dropping and within 24 hrs of it, I was
devoid of any energy – not even able to get up from the bed. Doctors advised
that the body’s immune response was developing and a few Sr. Dr. classmates
from school advised me against popping paracetamols as suppression of
inflammation and pain through consumption of prophylactics blunts the immune
response.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Take
a paracetamol only if you must (when temp crosses 102F). Human body is a
complex eco system where it repairs itself, fights and does everything to
survive.</span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">During
the time I was bedridden and worried, I followed the basic common-sense to keep
myself hydrated with lots of coconut water, usual vitamins.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Zinc,
Vit C and Vit D are known to create some sort of a protective shield and boosts
the body’s immune response. There is a theory that derides the use of external
vitamins as body has this immense ability to assimilate and process everything
consumed to everything it needs. And that explains how 2 different saplings of different fruits or vegetables can turn out to be big fruit and
vegetable bearing trees with just water poured during their lifecycle. But we must
still take external vitamins to supplement the deficiency.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">8
days after the vaccine when I was still not feeling perfect, I started sensing
a loss of smell and got a RTPCR test done to be declared positive on April 9</span><sup>th</sup><span style="font-size: 12pt;">
– 9</span><sup>th</sup><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> day of the first vaccine shot.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Of
Virus..</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">When
you hear stories on social media you empathise, but when you get hit you get damn
scared esp when you have a 3 Yr old daughter and a 70 Yr old mother at home.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-align: left;">So while blaming the vaccine was an
obvious response, Covaxin is a dead virus that is supposed to mimic the live
one – when it enters Your body and activates body’s immune response and creates
antibodies. I actually thought naughtily that since I wasn’t chanting jai Shree Ram or Har Har Modiji , the dead virus became alive to
attack me. Perhaps that was the message to be taken from Mr. Modi s foto on the
vaccine certificate.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">But jokes apart, vaccines comprise of dead, non infectious disease that’s
injected, or </span><a href="https://www.path.org/articles/mrna-and-future-vaccine-manufacturing/?gclid=Cj0KCQjwppSEBhCGARIsANIs4p7rSWruu66hgXg9qD1fYr6wU3KJ5fwhJnAQJ8XGke1TKv_6K8N5IFYaAmj2EALw_wcB"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">mRNA</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
(synthetic mutated RiboNucleic Acid) used by JnJ and Moderna, that mimic the
disease and allows the body’s immune response to develop the virus fighting
antibodies.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">We immediately got tests done for the
rest of the family and the responsibility of 3 girls (daughter mom and wifey)
was a worry. All came positive with viral CT values around 30 while I was the
only one with 21.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Higher the CT
value lower the Viral load – remember below 24 you need to be worried and above
24 you need to know the protocols that are available for immediate intervention.</span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.apollo247.com/"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Apollo247.com</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> seems to have their act in place. Doctors all
over the country are available online within minutes. The consultation fees is
less than Rs.800 on average and most of these Docs are seemingly nice and
patient and are available for 3 days on chat after the initial consultation
even though I didn’t get a response when I tried to chat on the 3<sup>rd</sup>
day.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Don’t panic at
all. It’s a naughty and a deadly virus but still a virus and behaves like a
viral fever with difficult symptoms. Eventually it will weaken and remain amongst
us like so many other viral flus. Its a collective fight against a common enemy. If we follow protocols and advice, we will win else we will only make the enemy stronger (allow it to mutate to become more virulent and infectious)</span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Children have a very different and
believably stronger immune profile and are generally recommended Zincovit syrup
5-10 mg and advice to monitor their temperature and oxygen saturation. Again –
Human body knows how to fight and to survive. Don’t blunt its response by
getting worried if fever is mildly high. In most cases children will recover and will fight this devilish virus in no time.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Adults need to keep an eye on fever
and oxygen saturation levels. The state of the country at present demands that we remain cautious
and stay at home.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><i>Oxymeters just like masks were an almost unknown underappreciated resource.
Every home must now have compressed oxygen can, oxymeter, sanitizing sprays and
quarantine protocols in mind (incase the need arises)</i> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Of Quarantine..</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">My wife wakes up daily at 0530 and in
the last 10 years of our marriage, I haven’t been able to figure out what she
does till 0730. She uses a nomenclature “Me-Time”. </span><a href="https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/me-time" style="font-size: 12pt;">Google
search does throw a definion</a><span style="font-size: 12pt;">. And it took Covid and Quarantine to
understand how therapeutic Me-Time is how every individual must find ones Mojo
in a bit of it everyday.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">My heart is full of gratitude that the
severity of my situation was manageable at home that allowed me to write this
note but quarantine was perhaps the most zen time I have had in the last 45
years. Almost 2 weeks of solitude, abundance of Me-Time, importance of being
self reliant (washing, cleaning, working in a confined space) while being on
the edge of a health situation that could have been potentially fatal.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">If you have more
than a bedroom, try and make the sunniest room as the quarantine room. It allows
you to recharge your batteries with sun
and removes the gloom. Sun is worshipped as a God - not without a reason.</span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Ensure that You have adequate supplies
of your clothes, detergents of various kinds and a spray sanitiser (that allows
you to exchange goods / supplies with family, when required using this
sanitiser).</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Move a small desk and chair to enable you
to take calls, use laptop and create some sort of a workstation.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Besides access to internet, kindle and
your fav books, ensure you have your fav Bluetooth speaker or Alexa to indulge
in a bit of pleasant music as and when required. I never got a chance to
appreciate symphonies but developed an addiction of Beethoven, Mozart, Vivaldi
and Bach in these 2 weeks. Believe You me – its really de-stressing</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Due to lack of movement, mild muscle
atrophy can set in without you knowing at all. Ensure you do some basic
exercises each day. A few Situps, pushups, cruches and surya namaskar is all that’s
required to keep the blood flow going and the body in shape.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Ensure that you follow a routine of
sleeping and waking up in time. Don’t allow an iota of gloom creep in. And irrespective
of whether you are working or not, follow a routine to dress up like on a usual
day (shoes et all). Wear your daily perfume even if your sense of smell has
gone for a toss. This really helps in giving a sense of purpose esp when there
is gloom and doom all around.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Watch as little covid data and news as
possible. You are already in a situation and you cant do a damn about anything. Keep
your spirits up and if you are active on social media try and help people in
need by connecting the needy to the resources. </span><a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1207/s15327558ijbm1202_4" style="font-size: 12pt;">Altruism
produces all the 4 most vital hormones</a><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> at the same time that in-itself heals and motivates you even more.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">We are all a product
of our thoughts that lead to action and that leads to character. Good thoughts
are like cocaine. These give you a high. Think and remain positive.</span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Connect with all lost friends whom who
have always wanted to be in touch. Connect with memories that bring a smile on your
face and twinkle in your eyes. Remember that we are all creatures of our memories.
No one knows what the future holds and stop fretting about it. You are just a
spec in the scheme of things of 4 billion years of life, 4 million years of
humanity and 8 billion of us floating around at this time – All of us thinking
that we will make a difference. No one gives a damn.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Moral compass is a vague concept that isn’t
empirically defined. Make an effort to calibrate that. Calibration of
ambitions, ethics, morality, right-wrong, relationships can only be done when
you have time to think, be quiet and seek answers to questions that you have
never sought before. And you don’t need a Britannica for that. All you need is
an acceptance that you are seeking and you shall find.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">If possible set a target of learning
something (the lowest hanging fruit) that you always wanted but never found time.
I learnt a skill that I have been meaning to learn for 20 years but couldn’t. I read every article and many books on the subject and ensured that I reached a
level of conversational competence in that subject. This was hugely gratifying.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Allow your mind to acknowledge and
accept that This too shall pass or You will pass away. No one cares, nothing matters.
</span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ikigai" style="font-size: 12pt;">Ikigai<i>ness</i></a><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> and
lightness if sought is always almost granted.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Of Quaintness..</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The modern day life is all about<b> </b>continuously driveling and this has reduced our ability to stop and pause and achieve a
state of <i><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C5%9A%C5%ABnyat%C4%81">shunyata</a></i>.
Ability to empty ones mind of all thoughts, desires even if momentarily - is an amazing
feeling. Most of us living today might not get this opportunity and I pray –
should not!. But if you do encounter an opportunity to stare at quaintness,
make the most of it. Explore the virtues of <a href="https://moksh.life/silence-is-golden-exploring-the-tradition-and-benefits-of-maun-vrat/">Maun
Vrat</a> and its <a href="https://www.sanskritimagazine.com/indian-religions/hinduism/benefits-maun-vrat/">benefits</a>.
<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Fearlessness is an almost impossible
virtue to achieve. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear_of_missing_out" target="_blank">FOMO</a>, Peer Pressure, Social Obligations are the drags and
headwinds that no one wants yet we get sucked into these. Jot down on a piece
of paper that you can stick on your desk that really defines all your needs. And
You’ll be surprised at the outcome esp. when you are in a forced quarantine.
One really needs far lesser than what we imagine or anticipate.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Life is very very short and very beautiful
don’t waste it with the </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_deadly_sins" style="font-size: 12pt;">boundaries and shackles
of the deadly sins</a><span style="font-size: 12pt;">.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">And lastly start
appreciating your wife’s Me-Time for she is in a state of Nirvana that you are
seeking and still struggling to find. Gratitude allows you to free up of your
mental shackle of deprivation and external unfairness.</span></i></p><p>
<b><i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-IN; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br />
</span></i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-IN; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://twitter.com/manurishiguptha">Follow manu on twitter</a></span></b></p><p><b>manurishiguptha.com</b></p>Manu Rishi Gupthahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16628261943554617736noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3339821117106681620.post-11881145449125129552021-01-09T19:05:00.001+05:302021-01-09T19:18:32.949+05:30The Standout Winner of the 'Amazing 2020'<p><span style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Depair
and Pessimism was abound and doomsday declared by almost the entire humanity in
March 2020. People involved with stock markets, most of whom had fading
memories of March 2000 and Oct 2008 were in utter disbelief and majority of the
fund managers with less than 10 years in business couldn’t believe that markets
could make 2-3 days of downward circuits and March 2020 would remain etched in
the memory of humanity for a long time.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinii824Kubzv3CO5s7KQ3OMTDMnz6GrrCgHN5kSKZe1wYgGyBBaHwxGS5fEKu8rYHQNuAex8SYQwqY6CsxQZnlG5ECg2zLOzUjSeobnGp76tWL9UZMmmsm9qzpMV7f-ZxRXOfqJx8CTy0/s1280/manu+rishi+guptha+awesome+2021+blog.jpeg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="905" data-original-width="1280" height="283" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinii824Kubzv3CO5s7KQ3OMTDMnz6GrrCgHN5kSKZe1wYgGyBBaHwxGS5fEKu8rYHQNuAex8SYQwqY6CsxQZnlG5ECg2zLOzUjSeobnGp76tWL9UZMmmsm9qzpMV7f-ZxRXOfqJx8CTy0/w400-h283/manu+rishi+guptha+awesome+2021+blog.jpeg" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br />But
the year has been phenomenal in every aspect of measurement and fathom and 2020
might go down in history as one of the best years of the century and here is my
argument in continuation to a piece that I wrote a few months ago ‘<a href="http://manurishiguptha.blogspot.com/2020/03/corona-may-be-biggest-blessing-in.html"><i><span style="line-height: 115%;">Corona May Be The Biggest Blessing In Disguise
for Humanity</span></i></a><i><span style="line-height: 115%;">’</span></i><span style="line-height: 115%;">, …..</span></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"></p><ol><li><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Humans wished well for everyone else on the
planet – Such a far cry from the erstwhile world order where ethnicity, religions
and beliefs were the divisive catalysts.</span></span></li><li><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Global Medical Fraternity came together to
share data and research and a slew of vaccines were made with great proven
efficacy in just less than 9 months – pertinent to mention that only 7 vaccines
were ever successfully produced in the last 100 years.</span></span></li><li><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Altruism got redefined by the frontline Covid
Warriors across the planet. These noble souls that form the medical fraternity
worked for days without any rest, put their lives in danger, hundreds </span><a href="https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/927976"><span style="line-height: 115%;">lost
lives</span></a><span style="line-height: 115%;"> but still held fort for the greater
common good of humanity. Our heads must bow down in deepest debt of gratitude
for them.<o:p></o:p></span></span></li><li><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Families found solace and enhanced emotional
connect amongst and within each other and started respecting the virtues of
looking inwards. The joy of spending time while acknowledging and appreciating
what we do for each other (often taken for granted) has been a virtuous
re-discovery.</span></span></li><li><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Friends for a season or a reason lost
significance and we longed only for true friends for a lifetime and rekindled
the lost connects and relationships that were always strong and reliable but
had lost sheen because of the natural efflux of time.</span></span></li><li><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The struggle by all people trying to connect
digitally through skype and webex and failing miserably over the last 2
decades, came to an end with the newfound frictionless experience provided by
ZOOM. Never ever in the history has a noun become a verb in such short time.
Even Google took a whole lot longer to become a verb.</span></span></li><li><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The struggle ordained by executives wearing
their ill-fitting suits and soiled tie knots that hadn’t been ever untied and taking
early morning flights at wee hours to travel across the country and globe to
attend futile meetings, mostly non productive a the cost of the corporate
profits – came to an end and sales calls and meetings could just be acceptably
attended by one and all. But for an accidental camera-direction malfunction (<a href="https://nypost.com/2020/08/27/government-official-caught-having-sex-with-during-zoom-meeting/">that
became global news instantly</a> to the benefit of <i>lockdowned</i> populace
longing for amusement), just a boxer with a shirt and tie - almost became the
globally accepted attire as long as the camera didn’t capture it.</span></span></li><li><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Homemakers unapologetically discovered guinea
pigs within their families by experimenting with exotic cuisines without the
option to their partners to give any honest feedback about their culinary
skills, but on a serious note discovered the orgasmic joy of cooking and
experimenting with gastronomy. I personally leant the fine art of making shushi
and some of my friends who also happen to be members of the mutual appreciation
club believe that I can probably give competition to </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukiyabashi_Jiro"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Sukiyabashi Jiro</span></a></span></li><li><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Mark Zukerberg and Steve Jobs are legends who
changed the world but another personality trait of theirs, of an entire life
wearing similar clothes became a fashion trend. Most of us have found the
amazing virtues of minimalism where we could consciously differentiate between
our needs and wants and could discover virtues of </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ikigai"><span style="line-height: 115%;">ikigai</span></a><span style="line-height: 115%;"> style of living and conduct and thereby
decluttering our lives.<o:p></o:p></span></span></li><li><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Contrary to the pursuit of materialism and
proving a point to someone around us, humans learnt that health is the real
wealth. The suddenness of the possibility of kicking the bucket made us all
realise that we and only we are responsible for how we treat ourselves and our
body that’s the temple of our existence. People are exercising more, eating
less and are generally demonstrating gratitude towards simple things such as
good health.</span></span></li></ol><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">But
the winner is none of all this….</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">The
winner of this year</span></b><span style="line-height: 115%;"> gone by, is
<b>human resilience and adaptability</b> that makes us homo-sapiens a truly advanced
and evolved creation of God that adapts itself to changing circumstances, is
audaciously hopeful of a brighter future, demonstrates grace in adversity and
above all can overcome all vicissitudes that are thrown towards us.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">A
rotten lemon came by in the garb of 2020 and the humanity made the best lemonade.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">What
lies ahead</span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"></p><ol><li><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">More tolerance and appreciation of all the
things around us. The bounty of nature and respect for mother earth.</span></span></li><li><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Bitcoin lovers will be able to buy their
Bugattis</span></span></li><li><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The stock market lovers will continue to
believe that there is no bubble and that Nifty PE of 40 and over is very
justified because quality is never expensive and one cannot overpay for
quality.</span></span></li><li><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Indian gene pool has proven itself to be the
most superior – let there be no doubt. The control of the pandemic and dramatic
flattening of the curve isn’t because of any amazing managerial, political or
medical superiority. Our peninsula seems to be producing the most intelligent
and most resilient homo sapiens. Survival of the fittest stands proved.</span></span></li><li><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">IMHO the Indian street food, Pani Pooris and
Chana Bhaturas (<i>cooked in suspicious conditions of hygiene</i>) might have
built the strongest immunity for Indians over the last 100 years.</span></span></li><li><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">India is likely to emerge many shades stronger
for the respect that it has garnered over the last few years. Our rapidly
advancing economic, social and political clout will make us emerge into a force
to reckon with while China seems to have spread itself terribly thin because of
its misadventures (border, virus, currency manipulation, mysterious
disappearance of dissenters) on various fronts.</span></span></li><li><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Meaningful affiliations and alliances with India
is no longer an option but a necessity for the G7 nations</span></span></li><li><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">As deep-rooted corruption ebbs away slowly
albeit steadily, India’s friction points, ease of doing business,
infrastructure will all dramatically improve catalysing a steep uptick in GDP.
5 Tr $ by 2025 might be a distant dream but 10 Trillion by 2030 looks
achievable.</span></span></li><li><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Travel and Tourism Industry ( from the present
7 million inbound and 50 million outbound ) is set to see a resurgence like
never before. Imagine the demand uptick when these 50 million outbound Indians
decide to discover the virtues and under-appreciated tourist treasures within
India.</span></span></li><li><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The coming decade undoubtedly belongs to India
and we will see it achieving its colloquial adage ‘the golden bird’ all over
again</span></span></li></ol><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Our
responsibilities as a citizen<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Kennedy
said – ‘Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your
country’ – As responsible citizens if each one of us just resolves <b>(just one
resolve)</b> to stay away from any form of corruption, corruption through
diluted intent, thought, deed - at every level, and not fan it by resigning to
the demands of the system. Stop maintaining neutrality in the times of moral
crisis, this itself will remove dozens and dozens of friction points from the
system that’s presently known to be sluggish and inefficient and will
eventually bump up our GDP, national profitability and global stature by hundreds
of basis points.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Happy
New Year, God Bless You and God Bless India. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br />follow manu on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/manurishiguptha">@manurishiguptha</a></span></p>Manu Rishi Gupthahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16628261943554617736noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3339821117106681620.post-14043476807167686582020-11-28T16:17:00.005+05:302020-11-28T16:31:17.861+05:30Hope and Despair - The Unmaking of India<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Why
I’m losing Hope in India – </span><i><span style="font-size: medium;">By Andy Mukherjee</span></i></b></span></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">No single essay has captured my life's experiences, hope and despair, and articulated it this verbatimly. Wanted the same to be on my timeline </span></span><span style="text-align: justify;">permanently</span><span style="font-family: inherit; text-align: justify;">. Taking the privilege to share. </span></span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large; text-align: justify;">-</span><i style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large; text-align: justify;">manu</i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">____</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">My generation of Indians has often been disappointed in
our country, and we have sometimes despaired about the direction it was taking,
but it’s been impossible for us to stop hoping.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Our own past has trained us to see the silver lining.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Opportunities we
couldn’t imagine growing up in the 1970s and ’80s emerged from nowhere and
changed our lives, and many of us believe history will keep repeating, with the
pain of the pandemic shocking the economy out of its pre-Covid inertia.</span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">So it breaks my heart
to have to suggest to today’s rising generation that this crisis is different
than others we have weathered, that the walls are closing in again, and the
opportunity set for India is shrinking, perhaps for a very long time. The
national dream of emulating China’s rapid growth is receding — by some economic
yardsticks, we can’t even keep up with Bangladesh.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">A disturbing
arbitrariness has crept into policymaking, institutions have decayed and the
economy’s structural deficiencies have worsened. Animal spirits have been
sucked out of all but a handful of firms. Zombie business groups are perched
atop the debris of debt-fueled expansion, waiting for politicians to signal
what role they still have, if any. The defeatist slogan of self-reliance, which
blighted our parents’ generation, is back. Politicians are using religious
discord and caste conflicts to drive a wedge in the society.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">To make matters worse,
India has handled the coronavirus pandemic with the same inept authoritarianism
that’s come to define its approach in all spheres, economic, political and
social. With more than 9 million infections, India is the second-worst affected
country after the United States. The economy slipped into an <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-27/india-enters-recession-with-back-to-back-contraction-in-gdp" target="_blank" title="India Enters Recession as Virus Pummels No. 3 Asian Economy">unprecedented
recession</a> last quarter.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The post-lockdown
economy will simply not have enough demand to consume what can be produced.
There’s some attempt to reform the supply side — labor and farm markets, in
particular. But not much is being done to revive demand, either in the short or
the long run. Some of us are wondering if this callousness will cause India’s
demographic dividend — two out of three Indians are still in the magic age
group of 15 to 64 years — to go unclaimed.</span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Yes, there’s time. If
India stops turning inward and embraces an open, transparent partnership with
global investors, hundreds of millions more would get a shot at prosperity. A
stagnant world economy could tap a new source of future demand. The West might
win a strong and reliable security partner in Asia. The ’90s optimism will
renew itself. But if India remains stuck in a middle-income trap, people will
soon stop asking if it could be the next China. My generation already has.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b>Stagnation</b><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">A previous generation
of Indians also knew violent change. My parents went from being British
subjects to citizens of an independent republic. They carried the trauma of
partition and lived through four post-World War II armed conflicts, one with
China, three with Pakistan.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">They recoiled in
horror when Prime Minister Indira Gandhi — the child of the great democrat and
freedom hero Jawaharlal Nehru — suspended democracy for two years in the
mid-1970s.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Amid this turmoil,
they underestimated the shadow on their lives of the mid-’60s economic crisis,
when after a bad drought, India devalued the rupee by 37% because that was the
World Bank’s condition for assistance.</span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The promised funds
didn’t arrive in full. Indira Gandhi, too new to power to be in control, took a
sharp pro-Moscow turn and rejected the capitalist path that South Korea, almost
as poor as India back then, was choosing for itself. She raised tariffs,
nationalized the banks, but failed to democratize credit. The government
bloated up; small firms remained stunted.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The <a href="http://icrier.org/pdf/Growth05_Policy1.pdf">“developmental enthusiasm”</a> of
Nehru’s idealistic socialism gave way to political expediency and policy
incoherence. The post-colonial dream of rapid industrialization faded. India
remained agrarian and poor, led by a tiny English-educated urban elite. At the
top of the order were bureaucrats with the power to say “no” to any expansion
in the private sector. The economy’s speed limit was 3.5%, pejoratively
described by scholars as the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/29793855?seq=1">“Hindu rate of growth.”</a><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">To those of us whose
families neither owned rural land nor had secure urban jobs, life was about
making the most of a heavily state-subsidized education. Very few experienced
upward mobility, and often only when the U.S. or U.K. embassy stamped their
passports. The friends and family who came to see off the newly minted doctor
or engineer at the airport went back to their unchanging lives.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b>Rebirth</b><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">All this <a href="https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF071/07475-9781557756213/07475-9781557756213/C05.xml?language=en&redirect=true">ended</a> when
Manmohan Singh, the economist who became finance minister in 1991, devalued the
currency to stanch the bleeding of foreign reserves, made the rupee convertible
for trade, dismantled industrial licensing and began slashing import duties.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">After the Soviet Union
disintegrated in 1991, our politicians ran out of their anti-imperialist
excuses. India engaged with a victorious West, my elder brother got a job in
New Delhi with AT&T Corp., and he brought home a shiny red push-button
telephone.</span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">A hook-up from the
state phone company still took years, so we borrowed the neighbor’s line. But
there was no time to brood over what we lacked — or what our parents had lost
to autarky and state planning. Somehow we knew that our shortages were ending, and
our choices were expanding. India’s ruling elite had run out of options for
self-preservation. It had to open the doors to a better life to more of us.
There was work to do.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Fledgling software
firms got down to it with the help of a colorful lobbyist. Dewang Mehta sported
a luxuriant crop of hair — it was a wig — and went around selling a puffed-up
story to global corporations that their computers were going to crash at
midnight on the new millennium because of the Y2K bug. Outsourcing of
code-writing, at a fraction of what it cost in the West, began in earnest. Jobs
were created in telecom, media, technology, finance and newly denationalized
aviation industries; the median home-buying age began to fall. Global carmakers
came to India, inspired by the popularity of a small hatchback, the Maruti 800,
made locally by Suzuki Motor Corp.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">China’s example
beckoned. After the June 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, Beijing wouldn’t brook
political freedoms, but the economic reforms begun by Deng Xiaoping were deemed
irreversible and foreign investors were mostly welcomed. The economy took off.
China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001 and grew at 10%-plus rates for
20 years.</span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">It was never going to
be easy for India to emulate its neighbor, whose single-party state struck a
bargain with foreign investors, while discriminating against its own business
class. Such stratagems weren’t possible in India’s noisy, federal democracy.
Politicians couldn’t ignore local businesses that gave them money to fight
elections. So India cleaned up the stock market and opened it to overseas
investors. This made sense. Unlike China, which was saving more than half of
its national income before the 2008 global financial crisis, India lacked the
capital to sustain a liberalizing economy through messy cycles of coalition
politics, let alone to build the roads, power plants and other basics of
missing infrastructure.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">So we put our faith in
institutions. Our heritage of English common law, independent courts and
regulators held the promise of fairness and protection for all stakeholders,
and we thought these would get stronger over time. The state, we hoped, would
shrink as an economic player, and become a more robust referee. Governance
would improve, endemic corruption would recede. The anonymity fostered by
urbanization would smash the regressive caste system. We liked it when scholars
such as Yasheng Huang, a professor at MIT Sloan School of Management, said that
India could <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2003/07/01/can-india-overtake-china/">overtake</a> China.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">To me and many of my
generation, Manmohan Singh was a savior, someone who carried the scars of partition
and had known poverty as a child. He was one of us. Our disillusionment with
him was 20 years in the future.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b>Unfinished Reforms</b></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The 1990s reforms in
India began with trade and investment liberalization. Tougher “second
generation” reforms in markets for land, labor, capital, energy and goods were
to follow.</span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">However, myriad
interest groups captured the weak coalition governments that became a norm
after 1996. Even as India’s openness grew, the larger project of boosting
competitiveness kept getting shelved. Internal markets continued to
malfunction.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">An additional problem
arose: Now that the government was retreating from being a producer, it had to
give land, energy and commodity rights, wireless spectrum and other concessions
to the private sector and procure — on behalf of the public — electricity,
roads, ports, telecom services and jobs. The opportunities for corruption
swelled, and a nexus of businesses, politicians and criminals coalesced to
exploit them.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">By 2004, the
once-dominant Congress Party’s Manmohan Singh was prime minister, leading yet
another ragtag coalition. He returned to power in 2009, but the triumph of his
victory didn’t endure. With the world economy entering its post-2008 funk,
India’s unreformed markets, political opportunism, fiscal profligacy and the
private sector’s unregulated greed overwhelmed Singh’s second term.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Around 2010, I was
heading up editorial operations for a business TV station in Mumbai. That’s
when, surrounded by the nouveau riche (my toddler’s return gift from his host
at a birthday party was an iPod), I began to notice cracks in the enterprising
spirit of the ’90s. Peeking from those gaps was a business class seeking riches
in private rents. Praful Patel, the then-aviation minister, gave me an
interview at the newly modernized Delhi airport, which was going to replace the
shambolic terminal that used to frustrate and embarrass us. The private
consortium that had won the 60-year management contract wangled a passenger fee
to cover a big part of the cost of the upgrade — <em>after</em> snagging
the project. “This important condition should have been known upfront to all
the bidders at the time of bidding,” the government’s auditor <a href="https://cag.gov.in/webroot/uploads/download_audit_report/2012/Union_Performance_Commercial_Implementation_Public_Private_Partnership_Ministry_Civil_Aviation_5_2012.pdf">noted</a>.</span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Public-private
partnerships of all hues proved problematic. Uttar Pradesh, the most populous
Indian state, made a special zone for alcohol distribution and gave it to an
Armani suit-wearing businessman named <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-20405472">Ponty Chadha</a>, who
on a November day in 2012, went to his farmhouse on the outskirts of New Delhi
with his security detail. His brother arrived with his own henchmen. The two
sides were there to sort out a property dispute. Before long, they were
shooting at each other. Both brothers ended up dead.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The vulgarity of crony
capitalism became a lightning rod for mass mobilization. An “India Against
Corruption” movement fed a frenzy of disgust against crooked politicians and
businessmen who were usurping farmers’ land, promising to create jobs and then
not delivering. But most crucially, people’s anger was aimed at the
Nehru/Gandhi dynasty. Even as Singh nominally ran the government, Indira
Gandhi’s daughter-in-law, the Italian-born Sonia, and her son Rahul wielded
real power, as Singh’s former media adviser Sanjaya Baru claimed in <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUK294976066620140425">“The Accidental
Prime Minister.”</a><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Scandals surfaced and
metastasized. In 2012, the Indian Supreme Court cancelled 122 telecom licenses.
The government’s auditor said that the granting of those licenses had cost the
country <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-16848844">$23
billion</a>. This debacle was soon dwarfed by what the auditor said was a <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/CAG-Govt-lost-Rs-10-7-lakh-crore-by-not-auctioning-coal-blocks/articleshow/12360183.cms">$42
billion scam</a> in allocating coal mines to private firms. Those were
also scrapped.</span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Wounded and cornered,
Singh’s government lashed out. It began to hound long-term investors like
Vodafone Group Plc for outsized tax liabilities, charged retrospectively. It
passed a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-08-29/singh-woos-voters-passing-farmer-friendly-land-for-industry-law?sref=nSjzNufw">law</a> that
made it prohibitively expensive for private businesses to acquire land. None of
this helped politically. Singh’s failures, meanwhile, were helping to make
Narendra Modi, a leader of the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party and chief
minister of Gujarat state, look good. Although his stint there had begun with
huge Hindu-Muslim riots in 2002, Gujarat’s economy grew 10% annually through
the first decade of the millennium, faster than the rest of the country. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">As the 2014 general
election approached, many voters thought that only muscular leadership could
end India’s economic paralysis and social stasis. Even those of us who found
Modi’s Hindu right-wing politics abhorrent thought his development record as an
administrator had earned him a place in federal politics. In our impatience for
growth, we ignored the warnings of scholars such as Indira Hirway that Modi’s
capital-intensive “Gujarat model” was built on generous subsidies to businesses,
and that the state was slipping in poverty reduction, human development and
hunger removal. I wrote that Modi could be like <a href="https://fr.reuters.com/article/breakingviews-india-modi-idINL3N0JP08W20131210">Japan’s
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe</a>, a leader who would suppress his nationalist
instincts, and use his popularity to drive hard economic reforms.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b>Modi’s “Permanent Revolution”</b><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Modi came to power
promising business-friendly policies and an end to “tax terror.” But when he
tried to undo the previous government’s land acquisition law, the opposition
attacked him for being anti-farmer. Modi had to <a href="https://www.livemint.com/Politics/noHEydhRIEPpdkn0fAqjRN/Govt-not-to-repromulgate-land-ordinance-Narendra-Modi.html">drop
the plan</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Vodafone’s troubles in
India didn’t end. In fact, harassment by tax authorities intensified. <em>“Sab chor
hain,”</em> Hindi for “Everyone’s a thief,” became the state’s
informal motto for dealing with the private sector.</span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Then, in November
2016, Modi performed a high-voltage stunt: He outlawed 86% of the country’s
cash, presumably to unearth illicit wealth. People queued up for days to return
their worthless notes. New currency was in short supply. Small businesses in my
hometown — a shoe-making hub — couldn’t pay workers. Women-run micro
enterprises on the outskirts of Mumbai later told me that their going rate for
weaving golden threads into a sari crashed to 4,000 rupees ($54), from 7,000
rupees.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Ultimately,
demonetization was a fruitless exercise. Most of the outlawed money came back
to banks, but the pain Modi inflicted on society helped launch his cult. As
Arvind Subramanian, then Modi’s chief economic adviser, would argue later in a
book, sacrifice, “as a necessary condition for achieving a larger, loftier
objective,” resonated with the population because it harked backed to Mahatma
Gandhi’s strategies during India’s freedom struggle. That elevation of Modi in
the public consciousness was a turning point in the citizen-state relationship.
Unquestioning devotion was in; critical examination was out. Gone was the
pre-poll promise of “minimum government, maximum governance.” The dirigisme of
the ’60s and ’70s was back. “We are now entering the politics of <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/demonetisation-currency-rs-5001000-notes-ban-demonetisation-effects-debate-its-permanent-revolution-4395371/">‘permanent
revolution’,”</a> Pratap Bhanu Mehta, a political scientist and
commentator, presciently warned after Modi’s currency ban.</span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Since then, the
government’s whimsical decision-making has intensified. Don’t like what a
consumption survey shows? Suppress it. Getting flak for a slowing economy?
Publish unbelievably rosy GDP data. Think Covid could get out of control?
Impose a nationwide lockdown on four-hours notice.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><em><span lang="EN-US">“Sab chor hain” </span></em><span lang="EN-US">now
defines most interactions. Homebuyers don’t trust builders to deliver homes;
financiers don’t trust property developers to repay loans. The government
doesn’t trust either the builder or the lender. Nobody trusts politicians, though
Modi, like all strongmen leaders, can elicit any response he wants from the
public. During the coronavirus lockdown he asked Indians to light candles, go
on the terrace and bang utensils. They did, as told.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">True, some bottlenecks
have eased. After failing to double in size in the four decades before 1991,
the national highway network has quadrupled since then. From less than 65,000
megawatts in 1990, power generation capacity has surged to almost 375,000
megawatts. Half of it is in the private sector. A further doubling by 2030,
without setting up <a href="https://www.teriin.org/sites/default/files/2020-07/Renewable-Power-Pathways-Report.pdf">any
more polluting coal-fired plants</a>, is possible, thanks to investor interest
in solar and wind power.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">But therein lies a
problem, a variation of the old resource crunch. A large section of the
capitalists to whom a cash-strapped government outsourced roads, ports,
airports, power stations and mobile towers is bankrupt.</span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Bag a concession from
the state, inflate costs, pay bribes, get financing from dominant state-run
banks, fleece consumers, siphon off funds into private accounts in Singapore or
Switzerland. This, with some variation, was the business model. In 2012, Ashish
Gupta, a banking analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG in Mumbai wrote a report,
titled <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-19/the-man-who-saw-india-s-banking-crisis-early-warns-of-new-peril?sref=nSjzNufw">“House
of Debt.”</a> The last eight years this house has burned. It’s still
aflame and singeing the banking system.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The IL&FS Group,
an infrastructure financier-owner-operator I’ve tracked since I was a newspaper
intern in Delhi in 1992, enriched a small cabal by taking everyone — its
partners, consumers, capital providers and regulators — for a ride. I described
its 2018 bankruptcy as India’s “mini-Lehman moment.” The sudden collapse of a
highly rated institution with billions of dollars of unpaid debt froze credit
markets. The psychological impact ran deeper. Before IL&FS went belly up,
the overextended Indian private sector was putting up a brave face, chanting
“Modi, Modi,” and trying to retain its best assets with cheap refinancing. Now
the entrepreneur just wants to avoid going to jail. Economic power is
concentrating in fewer hands.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">When I was growing up,
telecommunications was a government monopoly. Then came a bustling wireless
market hosting a dozen operators. Now the player count is once again down to
three effectively. One of them is in serious stress, and the other says it may
not be able to <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/will-not-bid-for-5g-spectrum-if-reserve-price-high-airtel/articleshow/78923166.cms#:~:text=NEW%20DELHI%3A%20Bharti%20Airtel%20has,the%20reserve%20price%20is%20high.&text=Regulator%20Trai%20has%20recommended%20a,is%20considered%20suitable%20for%205G.">bid
for 5G spectrum</a> next year. Another private group is establishing a chokehold
on seaports and airports, which also were once the state’s preserve.
Conglomerates may also be <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2020-11-23/india-banking-rules-need-to-close-door-to-tycoon-cronyism">allowed
to enter banking</a> because government-run lenders don’t have capital to
grow.<strong> </strong>For
my generation, swapping one form of concentration with another doesn’t look
like progress.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The rest of the
economy is still highly informal, and inefficient: 80% of the output of farms
and by small businesses goes to pay for capital, which is scarce. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-25/cheap-cookies-going-unsold-show-india-s-suppressed-wages?sref=nSjzNufw">Labor’s
share is 20%</a>. Workers are liberally rewarded only in a bloated public
sector, much of which ought to have been privatized long ago. Because it
wasn’t, taxpayers have to keep alive debt-addled firms such as Air India Ltd.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The push toward higher
wages should have come from higher farm productivity, which would have raised
the price of migrant labor coming to cities. India missed this page of the East
Asian playbook and failed to create a permanent urban working class.</span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Instead, it went
straight to global services like computer software. For a while, this shift
papered over the cracks, even though the billion-plus-people economy only
worked to meet the demand of 150 million top income earners.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">My father’s small firm
made shoe uppers, my mother knitted sweaters. There are millions of families in
similar circumstances today, with two differences: Prices of everything
(including education, which was almost free for us) are decided by a small
consuming class, and a billion others must struggle to afford them. Second,
there are now gig economy jobs and microcredit, even though the income to
sustain borrowing eludes most families.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The <a href="https://www.nipfp.org.in/media/medialibrary/2019/08/090819.pdf">structural
demand deficiency</a>, as Rathin Roy, an economist at the London-based Overseas
Development Institute, describes it, was a problem even before Modi’s Covid
lockdown in March left millions of scared migrant workers without jobs, shelter
or food. Their long, lonely journeys to the safety of their village homes
revealed the shaky legs of India’s urban growth story.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Workers will
eventually return. But getting back to pre-Covid levels will only pull 40% of a
billion people of working age into the labor force, Mahesh Vyas at the Centre
for Monitoring Indian Economy says. At least 10 million jobs are needed
annually — matching China’s rate between 1990 and 2014 — to raise the participation
rate toward the world average of 66%. But the post-pandemic developed world
will nurse a massive unemployment hangover. The “End of History” ebullience
that greeted my generation of Indians in the early ’90s is unlikely to repeat.
Besides, creating jobs amid rising automation will require heavy spending on
social security, healthcare, childcare, housing and education. Four out of five
women in Indian cities weren’t in the workforce even before Covid. China,
Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are all doing better.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b>Entrepreneurs Redux?</b><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">It would be cynical of
me to believe that another entrepreneurial explosion isn’t around the corner,
and that a larger number of Indians won’t be kicking in the doors to progress
than in the ’90s.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">In 2001, the
telecommunications firm run by Sunil Mittal, a former bicycle-parts trader and
manufacturer of the plastic Beetel phone my brother brought home, won its
millionth mobile customer. Today, Mittal is a billionaire, and Bharti Airtel
Ltd. has 293 million users in India, and another 116 million in Africa.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Crashing data prices
and cheap smartphones give India a chance to spawn its own large internet
businesses. Facebook Inc. has bet on Mukesh Ambani, India’s richest man, to
build the country’s most valuable digital carriage, content and commerce triple
play. The 152-year-old Tata Group might create its own rival “super-app” to
compete against Ambani’s.</span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Perhaps digital
capitalism favors “winner take all” monopolists. Rather than bemoan the
concentration of economic power, maybe I should look at the bright side?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"> </span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">India could also
attain the productivity boost China received from the likes of Alibaba Group
Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. The country has built a robust real-time
mobile payment system, dominated by Alphabet Inc.’s Google and Walmart Inc.’s
PhonePe. October saw transactions on the network doubling from a year ago to 2
billion. E-commerce and payments data could come to replace collateral in loan
contracts, offering small borrowers like my dad’s erstwhile shoe-upper firm a
chance to get around their perennial shortage of marketable assets.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"> </span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The China-U.S. cold
war — in trade, technology and finance — comes with its own rich prospects.
Indian-born executives such as Microsoft Corp.’s Satya Nadella, Alphabet Inc.’s
Sundar Pichai, International Business Machines Corp.’s Arvind Krishna and
MasterCard Inc.’s Ajay Banga are in a position to drive investments and jobs to
their country of birth.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Of late there’s also
progress on long-pending reforms. In a shakeup of rural power structures, the
Modi government has taken a political gamble by freeing farmers from the
institutionalized tyranny of having to sell their produce in designated market
yards, where they get shortchanged by middlemen. It’s also possible to be
tentatively hopeful about labor reforms. Merging <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-22/india-s-lower-house-of-parliament-passes-key-labor-reform-bills?sref=nSjzNufw">44
federal labor codes</a> into four, for instance, may see more workers on
formal contracts, a privilege that eludes most Indian wage earners.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">But there are
questions: One, how will supply-side reforms fill the demand gap? Two, when
will the broken financial system be made whole? Finally, will the narrow elite
running India by proxy agree to compete fairly, or will it simply hijack the
direction and pace of reforms for its own advantage, leaving a majority of
people behind? Modi’s government adopted a bankruptcy code in 2016, and bandied
it as a weapon against crony capitalism. But after the domestic business class
lobbied hard against losing prized assets, the insolvency reform lost its
sting. Once the Covid-19 disruption began, the bankruptcy tribunal closed its
doors to new cases. Out-of-court restructurings are a mess. A resource-starved
country is unable to free the capital trapped in dying firms.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Meaningful correction would
involve more than tweaking laws. The Indian state must put limits on its
powers, end its overreach and rebuild trust. It must clarify if the goal is to
remove “socialist” from the preamble of the constitution, something India’s
economic conservatives have always wanted, or if it is to drop <a href="https://thewire.in/law/supreme-court-plea-socialist-secular-constitution-preamble">“secular.”</a> Turning
a 14% Muslim population into second-class citizens is hardly a recipe for peace
and prosperity.</span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Resuscitating
society’s trust is more crucial now because New Delhi can’t put itself back in
the driver’s seat. The pandemic has sapped the little fiscal strength it had.
The investment-grade rating, which took the country more than <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/714d6a02-b0b0-11db-8a62-0000779e2340">15 years</a> to
reclaim, looks increasingly vulnerable.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">But trust requires
honesty. Indians are surrounded by social media spin and empty slogans like <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/we-should-assess-our-coronavirus-fight-against-the-metric-of-how-many-lives-we-are-able-to-save-pm-narendra-modi/articleshow/78922895.cms">“$5
trillion economy by 2024”</a> — from $2.7 trillion before Covid. How
exactly will this miracle happen? When Toyota Motor Corp. recently said it was <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-09-20/india-needs-to-choose-the-economy-it-wants-toyota-or-pakora?sref=nSjzNufw">halting
expansion</a> because high taxation is suppressing demand, ministers
rushed to do damage control by calling it fake news. To acknowledge and fix
shortcomings in the 2017 goods and services tax — the five-rate GST is a
compliance nightmare — is to doubt Modi’s acumen.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Independent voices
that could challenge the official narrative are being muffled; institutions
that could force the executive branch to right its wrongs have been defanged.
All this runs contrary to our hopes that our media, judiciary, regulators,
professional bodies and civil society groups would get stronger over time.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">India’s central bank
has seen off two governors in the last four years after unsuccessful attempts
to force bankers and their politically connected borrowers to clean up their
acts. Electoral financing is now via anonymous bearer bonds, with no checks on
the source. Recent judgments of the top court, as well as its dithering on important
constitutional issues, have invited criticism that its approach is <a href="https://www.bloombergquint.com/law-and-policy/supreme-court-will-have-to-decide-whether-it-deserves-the-peoples-faith-says-justice-ap-shah">“more
executive-like than the executive itself.”</a><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">In the absence of
institutional protection — not even of habeas corpus — trying to engage with
the state has become a crime. Protesting peacefully, demanding rights, exposing
wrongdoing by powerful people, criticizing policies have all become risky
ventures.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"> </span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The prime minister has
made his core supporters ecstatic by breaking up Jammu & Kashmir, India’s
only Muslim-majority state, into federally administered territories, but the
move hasn’t exactly buttressed India’s image as a multi-religious, secular
democracy.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The West will be
prepared to overlook much of this. As Ashley Tellis, an analyst at the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace, puts it, the exigencies of balancing China
would force the West into a <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/09/09/india-s-path-to-big-leagues-pub-82470">“constrained
acquiescence to partnership.”</a> That’s a poor substitute for “the
enthusiastic boosting of India that would otherwise occur if its liberal
credentials were not contested.”</span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The Indian middle
class, though, may be less forgiving. In economist Albert Hirschman’s
framework, the “exit” from India option was only for a minority. Others had to
stay, and it was their “voice” that kept alive Indian democracy.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Now a Muslim friend
from my hometown says he wants to emigrate because his seven-year-old daughter
is being reminded by her classmates that she’s different from the Hindu
majority. A bank analyst in Mumbai wishes he’d left long ago. He reckons on
many years of sub-5% GDP growth. The U.S. investor visa program saw a <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/nri/visa-and-immigration/indians-nationals-formed-the-biggest-chunk-of-eb5-applicants-in-fy19/articleshow/78516443.cms?from=mdr">400%
jump</a> in demand from Indians between 2016 and 2019. Modi’s supporters
troll dissenters on social media, and ask them to “go to Pakistan.” As many as
7,000 high net worth Indians left in 2019, according to Global Wealth Migration
Review. That’s 2,000 more than in the previous year. It’s unlikely any of them
went to Pakistan.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b>Wither India?</b><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">My mother’s side of
the family comes from Faridpur, in what is now Bangladesh. Once a part of
India, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-17/india-won-t-be-the-next-china-if-it-can-t-even-out-export-bangladesh?sref=nSjzNufw">Bangladesh
will overtake it</a> in current per capita dollar income this year. When
and how did we lose the plot to be the next China?</span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The problems began in
the complacency of the mid-2000s. That’s when India should have looked beyond
software and semiconductor design and doubled down on shoes, shirts and toys —
manufacturing that took advantage of the less-skilled workforce. Rather than
turning special economic zones into a land grab, India should have created a
few large enclaves. Demonetization and the flawed GST made things worse, and
Modi’s campaign of self-reliance may do yet more harm.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Why’s the public not
angered by it all? In the dirt-poor, northern state of Bihar, almost as
populous as Japan, Modi’s Covid lockdown forced migrant workers to return,
fearful and jobless. Yet while interviewing voters before elections for the
state legislature, Bloomberg News reporters found no dent in Modi’s appeal.
People’s ire was reserved for his coalition partner, the state chief minister.
And even he managed to retain power thanks to the prime minister’s boundless
popularity.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">When Manmohan Singh’s
government was in office, it was preoccupied with people’s rights to education,
food, work and information. Modi, on the other hand, identified touchpoints in
everyday lives — a bank account opened with a unique identification, cooking
gas to replace a coal- or wood-burning stove, a toilet in the village home —
and delivered, up to a point. Whether there’s money in the account, running
water in the toilet or the means to replace the empty gas cylinder isn’t
something for which people blame him. Not when he has a bigger civilizational
agenda, like building a temple for Ram, the Hindu God, in the same place where
a mosque once stood until it was razed by Hindu mobs in 1992. As a 22-year-old
student, I didn’t fully realize what its razing meant. We were still giddy
about the Berlin Wall coming down. The next generation of Indians, I’m afraid,
will have to pay a price for that injustice.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The better-governed,
faster-growing southern states of India have mostly shunned Modi’s strongman
cult, but they’re bit players. It’s the poor, over-populous northern states
that matter disproportionately in Indian politics, and it is there that Modi
has managed to shift the Overton window, supplanting material prosperity —
which no party has delivered since the ’90s — with chest-thumping nationalism
and an atavistic yearning for a pre-Islamic past.</span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">It’s no coincidence
that Modi’s ascendancy in public life began after the 9/11 attacks in the U.S.,
and export of terror from across the border in Pakistan. In the last
parliamentary election following one such attack, Rahul Gandhi, the opposition
Congress Party leader, couldn’t even retain his family borough in Uttar
Pradesh, previously won by his mother, father and uncle. And that was after he
promised the equivalent of $1,038 a year to each of the country’s 50 million
poorest families. The losers of development have turned skeptical even of
compensation.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Sadly, I don’t see
northern India’s economic pessimism — or its caste enmities, religious hatred
and deep-seated misogyny — making way for a less toxic, more aspirational
politics. I say sadly, because I have always been secretly hopeful about India,
even when criticizing its cumbersome red tape, crumbling infrastructure or
clumsy policymaking.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">But the 1990s dream
has ended, the world has changed, and so have we.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Just typing that
previous sentence feels like betrayal. India is where I was born, grew up,
started work and got married.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">I have left the
country for long stretches, and my teenage children don’t have any feel for its
culture, cuisine or languages. Yet India and I have never let go of each other.
When I write about other places, it’s as a foreign correspondent. The India
stories are different. They aren’t all strewn with the first-person pronoun,
but they’re all personal. Increasingly, they’re also bitter. Like this essay.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"> </span></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Call it buyers’
remorse. Those of us who thought that muscular leadership would revive India’s
dream of mimicking Chinese-style double-digit expansion are not just
disappointed. For many of my generation, our long-cherished hope for a better,
greater India is all but gone. We wanted to trade some of our democratic chaos
for a little bit more growth. We ended up with less of both.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><em><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">(Updates
in 6th paragraph with India slipping into recession. Corrects the cost to India
of licenses in 30th paragraph and the number of high net worth individuals in
66th paragraph.)</span></em></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/ASj7dG4ftKY/andy-mukherjee"></a></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNmgiLCLN1559ajhLUBwbMblR2_KthYVOkp7-XS1hMGanSz1KwKHM2YLSE4NSnhY1D4JSQ4rTVRGL8nkVuMC0nNGqoNm28RM8FlwKXqLGfCtclgL0VFJVNpjdIl_5bWM9mutZ4eFY2XDM/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="193" data-original-width="260" height="149" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNmgiLCLN1559ajhLUBwbMblR2_KthYVOkp7-XS1hMGanSz1KwKHM2YLSE4NSnhY1D4JSQ4rTVRGL8nkVuMC0nNGqoNm28RM8FlwKXqLGfCtclgL0VFJVNpjdIl_5bWM9mutZ4eFY2XDM/w200-h149/Andy+Mukherjee.jfif" width="200" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br />Andy
Mukherjee is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering industrial companies
and financial services. He previously was a columnist for Reuters
Breakingviews. He has also worked for the Straits Times, ET NOW and Bloomberg
News.<br /><br /><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-opinion-india-and-modi-are-losing-china-battle/" target="_blank">Originally published on Bloomberg</a><br /><o:p></o:p></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></p>Manu Rishi Gupthahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16628261943554617736noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3339821117106681620.post-89450346801086525332020-10-26T12:02:00.004+05:302020-10-26T12:20:22.383+05:30PVR Cinemas - House Empty - Future Bleak - Retail Shareholders Euphoric<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Warren
Buffett’s seemingly most popular quote “Price is what You pay and Value is what
You get” doesn’t seem more destroyed or intrigues the patron more, when one
pays ~Rs300 / USD 4.5 for a 100 gms box of popcorn at an Indian multiplex, whereas in India 700 million people earn less than Rs 100 per day or say ~USD1.4 / day</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">But this
piece isn’t about the Indian Economy, its about the market darling - PVR
Cinemas.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmyLz8azTBXLLxaYJfE65fRFOWqmt3JMNP-jAuy2LXP66Nx5rolHdT7Ts6edWxWiyHLAKsbnRuckKuq5FfIUiezPRWccuMmkmR7jbwkDishHX7crJi8sUXrpIBu6sTwWKscms6Hgua9W4/s1280/PVR+Popcorns.jpeg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: justify;"><img border="0" data-original-height="905" data-original-width="1280" height="283" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmyLz8azTBXLLxaYJfE65fRFOWqmt3JMNP-jAuy2LXP66Nx5rolHdT7Ts6edWxWiyHLAKsbnRuckKuq5FfIUiezPRWccuMmkmR7jbwkDishHX7crJi8sUXrpIBu6sTwWKscms6Hgua9W4/w400-h283/PVR+Popcorns.jpeg" width="400" /></a></span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Allow me to
place a disclaimer right here – I love PVR Cinemas, I along-with my wife and mother
almost never miss a movie at PVR and she loves the popcorn - being from the old
school. If I were to tell her that the ticket costs 2000 Rs a piece in Gold with green
tea (that she loves) (a Twinnings tea bag worth Rs 3 dipped in hot water sold
at some 80 times the cost) she might have a heart attack. But this is a secret
between PVR and me. Mom never gets to know of it.</span></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">The purpose
of this piece is to inform the gullible minority shareholder that while all the
institutions are dumpin <a style="mso-comment-date: 20201013T0123; mso-comment-reference: MRG_1;">the</a></span><span style="line-height: 115%;"> favourite PVR stock, You are being made the muppets and when the
music stops, you will have nowhere to run. </span>Its pertinent to
mention that the shareholding of people with less than 20,000 shares has
shot up from 3.5 – 10.5% in a matter of just 9 months.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTTun7quqIdgnPdtOF9bHg2i7vzqHyQb2YYoSd9gATn1NtBpcqTUwc6NvVxzxmTMLqCaJeD5eZaEb1q0PlNIXrp385ls0WrfxsFLwsRkufJFSNurTWm0BeCxBYJcDerfXy_6TXnUo0EpU/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img alt="" data-original-height="229" data-original-width="563" height="163" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTTun7quqIdgnPdtOF9bHg2i7vzqHyQb2YYoSd9gATn1NtBpcqTUwc6NvVxzxmTMLqCaJeD5eZaEb1q0PlNIXrp385ls0WrfxsFLwsRkufJFSNurTWm0BeCxBYJcDerfXy_6TXnUo0EpU/w400-h163/image.png" width="400" /></span></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Lets analyse
the company that’s now more expensive than TESLA - already trading at
some 800 PE</span></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">PVR
generates an EBITDA of Rs 60 per patron / movie watcher<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Sale of
F&B is Rs. 948crs or ~ 28.8% of total sales and 55% of Movie Sales Revenue
or Rs. 93/patron. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Cost of
F&B is 8% of sales thus 72.5% Profit Margin on Popcorn or say Rs. 67/Patron
comes from F&B <o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Which means
EBITDA Loss of Rs. 7/patron is generated by<u> </u>(Sale
of tickets + Advertisement Income + Convenience Fees + Other Operating Income)
the core business.<span class="msoIns"><ins cite="mailto:Ravi%20U%20Sharma" datetime="2020-10-14T09:52"><o:p></o:p></ins></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">SO ITS SAFE TO ASSUME THAT PVR IS JUST A POPCORN AND A NACHOS COMPANY</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I feel sorry
for the shareholders of the company that places its QIP at Rs 1719 and within a few
months has to come up with a rights issue at Rs 784 because the ever burgeoning debt, is unmanageable, future is uncertain and probably the promoters have to be paid arrears of their handsome
increments even while the wealth of minority shareholders is being blatantly
destroyed – some by pandemic – some by the promoters. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Here are the
statistics</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">As per the management,
in a recent concall in May<span class="msoIns"><ins cite="mailto:Ravi%20U%20Sharma" datetime="2020-10-14T09:53">, </ins></span>the breakeven of PVR is at at 20%
occupancy and Average Occ that PVR enjoyed is 35% in precovid times (And achieved
an 18% EBIDTA and 0.8% PAT margin), One question that comes to mind is – if
capacity utilisation in the best of the times is 35% generating such abysmally
low PAT, what effect will a lower occupancy have on the P&L and the Balance
Sheet<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">And the
EBIDTA sucks because the promoters who own a mere 18.79% of this company draw a
cumulative salary (besides all other perks and privileges) of ~ 28 Crores that
is slightly more than the PAT of the company. A back of the envelope calculation pegs the EPS for promoters and family at approx Rs 32 per share while its a paltry Rs 4.95 for other shareholders.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It’s a shame – more so in India – because stockmarkets are shallow, lack depth,
and most shareholders have no access to genuine research on the basic and key metrics
of the company, intention of the management, and self centricity of the
promoters at the cost of minority shareholders.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">PVR has been incurring ~ monthly expenses of 63 Cr (assuming 50% waiver on rent and CAM charges) so if this year is more or less a washout, it would have burnt approx. 750 Cr without any mentionable revenue in FY 2021) And that explains the short runway of the amount of Rs 300 Cr collected thru the rights (in Aug 2020) that might not have lasted beyond 5 months.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">“The business is
under a grave irreversible threat”</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Ask a producer of a film and he/she is under permanent nervousness till one week
after release of his movie - not knowing whether one would be able to recover costs, make
profit or lose the skin.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">The immense
sense of freedom that most of the producers such as </span><a href="https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/variety/will-ott-supplant-cinemas-or-can-they-co-exist/article31999221.ece"><span style="line-height: 107%;">Ronnie Lahiri have found by releasing
movies on OTT</span></a><span style="line-height: 107%;"> is
heartening. Gulabo Sitabo was a great hit, made him the money and de-risked his
investment. Top OTT players are happy to buy movies at a cost + basis, thereby
de-risking the producers and the OTT players such as STAR, Amazon, Netflix have
pockets tens of times deeper than the size of Indian film industry at ~13800 Cr
(1.8 B USD) where the Bollywood is a mere ~1000-2000 Cr per annum<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">For the
record Amazon and Flipkart burn a combined sum <a href="https://qz.com/india/1554472/amazon-india-spent-twice-what-walmart-flipkart-did-on-ads-in-2018/#:~:text=Amazon%20India%20spent%20between%20Rs700,Rs450%20crore%20and%20Rs550%20crore."><span class="msoIns"><ins cite="mailto:Ravi%20U%20Sharma" datetime="2020-10-14T11:11">In
excess of Rs 1,500 crores</ins></span></a> just during their Diwali sale alone.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://brandequity.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/media/how-ott-market-will-be-a-game-changer-for-the-film-industry/75658326"><span style="line-height: 107%;">OTT is really the future</span></a><span style="line-height: 107%;"> because a family can watch a movie
in the convenience of ones Living room where the annual subscription of the
most expensive platform is less than the cost of “just one” movie with the family
at a multiplex. We haven’t yet discounted the pain of navigating the traffic,
parking, lack of social distancing, risk in the AC (after Corona) world where
the human psyche has got permanently mutated because of the present unexpected
vicissitudes. The <a href="https://the-ken.com/bfo/143/">brilliant analysis by Seetharaman</a>
in <a href="https://the-ken.com/">The Ken</a> sums up the dilemma and the zero
sum game for the cinema halls.<span> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span>No wonder
that the </span><a href="https://www.techradar.com/in/news/sales-of-big-screen-tvs-show-impressive-growth-in-india">sale
of large TVs and projectors that cost as little as Rs 10 K on amazon has shot
up</a><span> in the recent times because of the newfound freedom by the movie buffs.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span>Low budget
films, some of these dramatically </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span>awesome
in content and direction, that cannot afford a big budget theatre release have
found a new freedom and recognition and have been able to shed the risk bias of
the patron because the incremental cost of watching this movie is almost nil
for a family (if at all the same turns out to be a dud or below expectations).
Not that the wounds inflicted on the populace by Salman Khans </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tubelight_(2017_Hindi_film)">Tubelight</a><span>
or Aamir Khans </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thugs_of_Hindostan">Thugs
of Hindostan</a><span> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span>can ever be healed. And
on top of that the Rs 300 popcorns.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">OTT reduces/almost-eliminates
piracy and provides a reach to the most under provided sections of society
where access might be a problem, but internet works at a good speed.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">The </span><a href="https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-cineworld-suspends-uk-us-cinemas-and-seeks-new-funding-12090530#:~:text=Cineworld%20said%20on%20Sunday%20that,from%20Thursday%208%20October%202020."><span style="line-height: 107%;">demise of Cineworld with 9500 screens</span></a><span style="line-height: 107%;"> was a shock that had to down its
shutters on almost 90% of its business due to the pandemic. And the hunger of
retail shareholders to lap up the PVR stock seems unsatiable.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">If this
virus - that has permeated such degrees of fear in the society is here to stay
for a foreseeable future then the future of multiplexes is in grave danger and that
explains why the institutions or the big boys of the stock markets are strategically
reducing their stake while holding the price at present levels and retail
muppets (shareholders) are hungrily buying the stock to take the retail
shareholding up from 3.55% in Dec 2019 to 10.32% by Sep 2020.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Unless
another equity infusion takes place, The PVR debt will continue to burgeon, for
many many years, to its peak of approx. 2100 Cr by Mar 2022<span class="msoIns"><ins cite="mailto:Ravi%20U%20Sharma" datetime="2020-10-14T11:28">.</ins></span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjJMok48xDk1nvyAjMXHyrUQnQKdBjTOQKkIPUE3G5nb652esDDGszacqdzmRZTsMe5fTXTfcJ6TO1yOlfba6X_x-isWsJbGY5U3Sen73AgqZq0WfF-K4mq15SSY_zJVlX_nyrpt6CXFk/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img alt="" data-original-height="381" data-original-width="620" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjJMok48xDk1nvyAjMXHyrUQnQKdBjTOQKkIPUE3G5nb652esDDGszacqdzmRZTsMe5fTXTfcJ6TO1yOlfba6X_x-isWsJbGY5U3Sen73AgqZq0WfF-K4mq15SSY_zJVlX_nyrpt6CXFk/w400-h246/image.png" width="400" /></span></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Its loss
might peak out at Rs 566 Cr by the end of this FY 2021</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">But the fact
remains that – at the CMP of 1250 and FY 21 fwd PE of ‘maybe’ 1000, this is the
most expensive stock on the planet beating Tesla dry and hollow and far ahead
of its global peers such as AMC, Cineworld, Cinemark and Cineplex most of which
have corrected by 60-90% while PVR is being distributed to the minority and
gullible retail shareholders.<span class="msoIns"><ins cite="mailto:Ravi%20U%20Sharma" datetime="2020-10-14T11:30"> </ins></span><i>(As there is absolutely no
certainty on quantum and timing of full recovery, we have used Trailing numbers
to benchmark globally. Also, a size discount is applied)</i><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNM5T6ORzOmEqG6exLw_7lQi2CsY4gPlQfiM-chKucb0Ubk_0zqR0gmRvPdAdfLBJxnEL4YaRfLgImvEEc__kUu7RgaqZ0HG5t0VUXY_1cbH_F2KItyg5Ww-bf3FBF4pW304xlhFLwPdE/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img alt="" data-original-height="373" data-original-width="611" height="244" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNM5T6ORzOmEqG6exLw_7lQi2CsY4gPlQfiM-chKucb0Ubk_0zqR0gmRvPdAdfLBJxnEL4YaRfLgImvEEc__kUu7RgaqZ0HG5t0VUXY_1cbH_F2KItyg5Ww-bf3FBF4pW304xlhFLwPdE/w400-h244/image.png" width="400" /></span></a></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Going by
these calculations and benchmarks, PVR (ceteris paribus) while deserving its
rich valuations should slide down to under 400 when its performance, reasonable
valuations meets to say hello to its eventual fate.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRKW4ww2KKmQ5Wu37DW1LFs2I-WghDhXuooSWsJZkBgrHgPDk21gQ783L1y2KZtHCJHX4CYyZybcEXZMHkmwTM23HupsGDLaxGiAgsrYmBlRtMyjBYP87UaACuFmA90mMNiyZ1indkzXY/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img alt="" data-original-height="379" data-original-width="698" height="217" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRKW4ww2KKmQ5Wu37DW1LFs2I-WghDhXuooSWsJZkBgrHgPDk21gQ783L1y2KZtHCJHX4CYyZybcEXZMHkmwTM23HupsGDLaxGiAgsrYmBlRtMyjBYP87UaACuFmA90mMNiyZ1indkzXY/w400-h217/image.png" width="400" /></span></a></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Minority shareholders singed by the narrative built around a stock always
almost are left holding a rotten tomato.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Looking fwd
to gain some confidence post this Virus, when I can again take my loving mom to
get her favorite popcorns at PVR – in the meanwhile sell the family silver to check-in
into PVR ‘only if' there is no other show going on.</span></p><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Co-authored with</i><span face=""Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 13px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span face=""Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 13px;">Ravi Sharma @caraviusharma ; https://www.linkedin.com/in/ca-ravi-u-sharma-65901b97/</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div></span></span><p></p><div style="mso-element: comment-list;"><div style="mso-element: comment;"><div class="msocomtxt" id="_com_1" language="JavaScript">
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</div>Manu Rishi Gupthahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16628261943554617736noreply@blogger.com19tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3339821117106681620.post-64716983052210847742020-10-05T01:29:00.003+05:302020-10-06T09:08:44.008+05:3010 Blunders - 1 Arrogant Company - Millions of Shareholders Suffering (The story of ITC)<p style="text-align: justify;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Dear Board
Members,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>As a
minority shareholder while I sift thru the </span><a href="https://www.itcportal.com/about-itc/shareholder-value/annual-reports/itc-annual-report-2020/pdf/ITC-Report-and-Accounts-2020.pdf">368
page Annual Report (AR) of my company</a><span>, it seems and appears to be a
manifesto of a large political party that is proud of what its done in the past
and what it hopes to do even if nothing sounds or appears to be value accretive
for the shareholders. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><span>Markets are wise and perceptions are strong and the 1.5 million investors who have reposed their faith and trust in you, seem to be
losing the confidence in Your leadership. Else ITC that was once the most
respected company wouldn’t have performed so miserably on the bourses inspite
of the 368 page chest thumping manifesto.</span></div><o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjl5VSXvfW11CXbKV7GYNoRdgiJOD15P6TmtBO_wTK3yqRvqbFoLNaNDiyFTIX1xxd2gf24ahn8wDXctjcxw2H2Rz8wC25w0uJVfLUVd1DEtUz1xc6WzKvDliJJmdYO4tQYRRVNC38qsvo/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img alt="" data-original-height="905" data-original-width="1280" height="283" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjl5VSXvfW11CXbKV7GYNoRdgiJOD15P6TmtBO_wTK3yqRvqbFoLNaNDiyFTIX1xxd2gf24ahn8wDXctjcxw2H2Rz8wC25w0uJVfLUVd1DEtUz1xc6WzKvDliJJmdYO4tQYRRVNC38qsvo/w400-h283/ITC+Boardroom.jpeg" width="400" /></a><span>I must say
yo</span><span>u are failing miserably while sitting in the comfort of your mahogany and
leather lined offices, a mutual appreciation club of 14 people presiding over
an annual revenue of over 50,000 Crores each one building large personal
empires thru generous grant of stock options and over the top compansation
while I am seeing my wealth erode by the hour.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>ARE YOU
ANSWERABLE?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>The unbridled
power that you wield without being questioned by a real promoter / entrepreneur
has spelt a real disaster as I fear that my company is being taken on the same </span><a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=general+electric+stock&oq=general+&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j46j69i57j0l3j69i61l2.3521j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8">self
destruct path</a><span> that </span><a href="https://www.inc.com/alison-davis/3-lessons-every-leader-can-learn-from-ges-downfall.html">General
Electric</a>, Nokia, Blackberry<span> and </span><a href="https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ALeKk02No5lNbTZJpwqJlFK4NUaFXvgSQg%3A1601720256456&ei=wE94X_K5G_yV4-EPk_qv8AE&q=exxon+mobil+stock&oq=exx&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQARgAMgcIIxAnEJ0CMgcIABCxAxBDMgcIABCxAxBDMgoIABCxAxCDARBDMgQIABBDMg0ILhCxAxDHARCjAhBDMgQIABBDMgQIABBDMgQIABBDMgQIABBDOgQIABBHOgQIIxAnOgQILhAnOgoILhDHARCjAhBDUK2WBFjpmQRgk6QEaABwBHgBgAGGBYgB_gaSAQcwLjIuNS0xmAEAoAEBqgEHZ3dzLXdpesgBCMABAQ&sclient=psy-ab">Exxon
Mobil</a><span> have been taken in the last 2 decades and the less said the better as
to how value destructive this journey has been for them because there was no
one to shake up Jack Welch at the right time (he became the greater God without
being one). For way too long these companies and their respective managements suffered from Hubris not able to see a fast approaching train while being frozen on tracks, not able to course correct - eventually leading to their demise. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>While I will
ask </span><span>some specific questions, the crux of this note is that if you cannot
protect my wealth thru the alleged magic of your strategy and leadership – You
don’t have the moral right to hold these positions and lead my company.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>ARE YOU
ANSWERABLE?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">The First
Blunder </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><span>The biggest</span><b> </b><span>blunder
of diversifying into hospitality and continue to burn cash and capital in this
black hole using cash generated by the cigarette business (which is the only meaningful cash flow
division) is nothing short of financial hara-kiri on minority shareholders. You
have acted no differently than most of real estate developers who want to own a
hotel / hotel chain from their free cash flows because its sexy to own one when
it’s the most unprofitable industry and most susceptible to economic mood
swings. 'Dala Bhukara' is fine – I appreciate it and love it too, You should have
stopped at that, but then it was simply stupid to burn thousands of
crores of my money by assuming that every hotel will be as successful as dal
bhukara. I would like You to share with the public – Who is advising you to
spend thousands of crores of shareholder wealth to build these large hotels
(and overspending on most of these).</span></div><o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>Who
(employee</span><span> or consultants) is regurgitating on excel sheets - the potential of
new hotels and how are these people made accountable? The AR must include a
detailed P&L and BS of each of my subsidiaries hereafter clearly mentioning
the ROCE on a quarterly basis.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>At Rs.<span>1</span>7.9 lacs revenue per room per annum of revenue you have missed the bus of being any formidable
hospitality brand even while you can't stop gloating on all the award and
accolades that the hotel division has got. Mind You - most of these are all
subscription based awards (awards and accolades is a paid international scam at
the cost of the hospitality industry) the sooner we realize this the sooner we
will stop burning cash. I would like to know how much money has been burnt in
annual subscription of these awards.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><span>ITC Grand
Bharat with 104 keys is generating a mere revenue of 28 Cr p.a, that’s is lesser than some successful Lemon Tree Hotels on a revenue per key per annum basis.</span></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>It is
pertinent to ask what’s the spend per key of all the hotels that have been
built grounds-up in the last 10 years. If</span><span> it is anything more than 2 Cr per key
(all in) there is something dramatically wrong with our projects team and
financial forecasters. How many hotels have performed in line with approved financials
from the time of board sanction of these projects within the next 5 years. This
is an important analysis that You should </span><span>seek and make the same public.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>ARE YOU
ANSWERABLE?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>The entire
rigmarole of Fortune Hotels with 4000 rooms is generating a mere profit of 2.76
Cr – who is responsible for this and why is this abysmal performance being
tolerated at my cost?</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><span>Welcome Heritage does a NP of a mere 40 lacs with 36 hotels , 900 rooms and the
management bandwidth at my cost.</span></div><span><o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>Which
international brand / concept are we benchmarking ourselves against to justify
our investment in the business and which of my employees has his/her skin in the
game in this business and how is the executive compensation tied to the
performance of the Hotel Division.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>ARE YOU
ANSWERABLE?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">The
Second Blunder</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Small
irrelevant businesses that we have ventured into must be taking immense bandwidth and time (board
meetings, audits, finalization of accounts, consolidation) why are we in the
businesses such as Antrang Finance that generates a mere 6 lacs a year. I would
like to know the details of every business / subsidiary that generates less
than 50 Cr of NP after taxes. In the scheme of things and larger objectives
there should be a board resolution passed that defines / disallows continuity,
if certain thresholds aren’t met by any subsidiary.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">The Third
and Series </span></b><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">of Blunders</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Our
acquisition history and parameters are abysmal. That eeks of internal misjudgements.
I might not need to tell you that a series of these judgemental calls, gone wrong with alarming
regularity, might be perceived to be fraud. Nimyle, B Natural, Savlon – have you
ever calculated the price paid for acquiring these businesses and the value accretion/destruction that these businesses are doing for me. Your endeavor to build on these brands
might be noble but the subsequent performance is abysmal.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>Enron wasn’t
a fraud at the beginning , But they lost their way alongside because they
didn’t know when and where to diversify and how to wisely allocate capital and
burnt cash and rapidly eroded shareholder wealth. Don’t take my company down
that path or history will find it difficult to forgive You.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 115%;">When I read
about the <b>ITC Sangeet Research Academy</b> I couldn’t stop laughing for 5
minutes. The cacophony of the music of frustration is still ringing in my brain.
While I would like to know the total cumulative annual spend in this musical initiative
since 1977, I kept wondering that the music for all the gurus and the budding musicians
is playing fine while the music for the shareholders is dimming with an
alarming speed or might already have stopped a few years ago. What a paradox..<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>BECAUSE YOU
ARE ANSWERABLE</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">The
Fourth Blunder</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>The FMCG
division launched in 2000 generates just 3-5% PBT, thats a meagre 6% segment ROE (vs >35% of other FMCG players) – put Your hand on your
heart is this justified. The QOQ and YOY narrative, </span>propagated<span> by You that 'we are becoming a
global FMCG brand' is fine – how is it value accretive for me – because our
operational performance is miles short of our competitors.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Are our employees lackadaisical and suffering from sloth because they don’t
have a real BOSS or there is something drastically wrong with our strategy and
execution. How have we benchmarked ourselves against the top 5 competing FMCG
companies?</span></p><span style="line-height: 115%;">
<span><o:p></o:p></span></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>I would like
to know if the salary growth of all the people earning over 35 lacs per annum is directly correlated to Revenues and EBIDTA of those divisions and if NO – it
tantamounts to the very premise where we begun – My cash business is being used
to fund the inefficiencies of the entire company without a credible
benchmarking against other brands / businesses that are doing well. How are we different today from an inefficient PSU. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The so called Dividend Yield is a paradox - How would You justify the same to investors who entered the stock on ~14th July 2017. Yes agreed i am getting some 7-10 Rs a year in dividend while losing a major part of my capital. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">The Fifth
Blunder</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">For a Balance
Sheet of my company’s size you have failed repeatedly to disclose Your CAPEX
plans and capital allocation plans in advance – isn’t that taking the executive
power to a level of unsanctioned discretion? While I am suffering with my
capital erosion you guys are building personal empires of reputation and brand
building.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 115%;">ITC Infotech
@ 2300 Cr per annum of revenue and single digit PAT must be the most
underperforming IT company in the country. Do we take pride in investing
businesses that underperform and continue to make the shareholders believe that
the future is bright (why has the board not thought of divesting this and all such small divisions) and if NO
– what’s the boards commitment on revenues and PAT in the next 5 years for this
company.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">The Sixth
Blunder</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">You recently
acquired Sunrise at approx. 3.7 X the FY 1920 revenues of 591 Cr at a PE of 37.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">How does
this deal add to my geographical diversification? How is this value accretive
to me? And why would you pay this valuation when you aren’t able to sustain a
15 PE for my company? How did the board ap</span><span>prove an acquisition at 37 PE while
struggling to keep my valuation even at 15 times.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Why could we
not expand our own spices division to strategically expand our geographical reach
with internal talent and resources and had to go thru the path of an expensive
acquisition.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>Norway’s food
major </span><a href="https://www.orkla.com/">Orkla</a><span> acquired Eastern Condiments (almost double the size of Sunrise) at
2.1X Sales and at 18.5X earnings. Which team was responsible for the due
diligence of Sunrise and it would be in the interest of the shareholders if the
negotiation documents and files are brought out in public domain.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">For a
minority shareholder watching from a distance, this is nothing short of an
internal fraud. If my company is receiving Outstanding Performance Award by CII
for its spices, does our management not have the wherewithal and talent to setup and expand our products’ geographical reach rather than paying
a hefty premium just to capture a market share.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>ARE YOU
ANSWERABLE?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">The Seventh
Blunder</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">The
executive compe</span><span>nsation keeps going up and shareholder wealth keeps coming down.
It’s a shame that in the last approx. 12 years the revenue has gone up from
16000 Cr to 50000 Cr and the employee cost is almost stagnant at 9% or has
marginally inched up. Where is the operational leverage? Where is the
demonstration by the management to incrementally and geometrically increase
revenue and thereby profitability for every additional crore spend in Executive
Compensation?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>Some of the
mos</span><span>t progressive companies on the planet (such has Amazon) have a cap on
executive compensation at less than 160000 USD per annum and all additional
comp is through stock awards.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>Our
compensation system acts as a disincentive for executive outperformance and in
the absence of a real </span><i>my-baap</i><span> of my company, I – THE MINORITY SHAREHOLDER am suffering.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>In 12 years
the revenues are up approx. 3.12 times and employee cost is up 3.26 times. And
most likely the perks, hidden benefits, Pension Plans, Travel Plans, Drivers, Cars, Leave Encashments are not even a part of
this metric. I would like a declaration / system – where every penny spent on
every employee is a function of CTC that’s declared and filed without any
benefit being accrued under any other account head.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><span>Do you – dear Board Members understand the concept of operational leverage?</span></div><span><o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>ARE YOU
A</span><span>NSWERABLE?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">The
Eighth Blunder</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Our stakes
in EIH and Leela have a MTM loss of approx. 1250 Cr in just one last FY. What's
the rationale in holding onto these investments when we don’t really know how
to manage our own hotels in the first place or make them world class by any
stretch of financial performance. Not a single rupee should be allowed to be
invested in the hospitality business to fund losses or any further CAPEX. And
every business balance sheet should fend for itself for its OPEX and CAPEX without
dipping into our cash generated from the primary business – Cigarettes.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 115%;">The Sri
Lanka investment of 1800 Crores (~236 M USD) so far, baffles me as a
shareholder. And I understand that the project is far from complete. Who are we
building this empire for and how will we get our investment back? Do You have a plan besides just an excel sheet to justify this black hole.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>ARE YOU
ANSWERABLE?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">The Ninth
Blunder</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Our abysmal
ability to engage with capital markets / investors / analysts is nothing short
of abject neglect (no <i>mybaap</i> syndrome). If you had succeeded in creating any
mentionable shareholder value – this attitude is pardonable. But while You are
all doing exceptionally well, with your compensation and hefty sitting fees and
perks, the lack of investor and market engagement is taking me and my
shareholding for a ride. Why cant </span><span>we have a mature set of professionals who
have the knowledge and the art of engaging with investors and the media.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>ARE YOU
ANSWERABLE?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">The
Biggest Blunder</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">You are
conducting an average of 41 committee meetings a year. Take out the weekly offs and
holidays, You are meeting approx. every 5<sup>th</sup> day. FOR WHAT? And what
are you achieving for me? Except strategically destroying my wealth and value
of my shareholding at my cost and charging exorbitant sitting fees? Gentlemen
the average age of my board is approx. 65.6 Yrs. God give You all a happy
healthy life but don’t treat my company like a retirement resort.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>You talk of
Triple Bottom Line repeatedly trying to be the 'pallbearer' of goodness – While every section of society gets a mention – the
shareholder is left out of that focus - high and dry. If I was on Your mind – You wouldn’t
waste a single rupee in reputation management through charity and social
activities and alleged multiple bottom-line spiel till the interest of
minority shareholder </span><span>is protected and demonstrably served.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>While every
corporate house has declared salary cuts in view of the pandemic – there is no
evidence of any salary cuts in my company. on the contrary <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/company/corporate-trends/itc-to-hike-chairman-and-managing-director-sanjiv-puris-salary-by-45/articleshow/70773438.cms" target="_blank">you have recently chosen to reward yourself for destroying shareholder wealth</a>. Is that morally and ethically
correct even while the latest Tax filings reveal that our advance tax returns
are lower by almost 50%. That portends that the Net Profit is likely to fall dramatically
- At whose cost?? – MINE!</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>Another
large conglo</span><span>merate / business house indulged in empire building, international
acquisitions at obnoxious valuations, over leveraging, failed product/car
launches all at the cost of minority shareholder and to sate the ego of a few
top guys in position of authority and they have reached a precipice of
existential crisis.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>Its becoming
increasingly irritating to be repeatedly reminded through media, about the deep value and
future potential of my company under Your leadership – Lets stop behaving like the
state that talks of glorious vision in year 2050 (safe distance away) – because
by that time none of us will likely be alive. Its not to take the credit away
for many good things that are happening in my company but pls remember Good is
not Good enough because we need to be Great. I must confess we are far from Great
and not even looking in that direction.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>Pls get Your
act together and don’t allow my company to get to a point of no return. A few
more mistakes and a little more neglect – And you would have succeeded in
destroying one of the finest companies in the country to a mere </span><b>HAD BEENS</b><span>……
Remember markets are unforgiving and it would take no more than a few quarters
to get our share-price to double digits.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>God Bless
You and God bless ITC</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span>A distraught
shareholder…………<br /><br /><i>Co authored with</i> <br />Ravi Sharma @caraviusharma ; https://www.linkedin.com/in/ca-ravi-u-sharma-65901b97/<br />Uday Bhaskar https://www.linkedin.com/in/uday2210/</span></p>Manu Rishi Gupthahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16628261943554617736noreply@blogger.com278tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3339821117106681620.post-4422038857799001022020-08-30T14:00:00.001+05:302020-08-30T14:02:56.746+05:30Investors are Dancing - But no music can be heard<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><b>Is a Financial Tsunami Building up?</b></span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: arial; line-height: 115%;">Just as the
stock price of </span><a href="https://in.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-TSLA/" style="font-family: arial;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Tesla</span></a><span style="font-family: arial; line-height: 115%;"> kisses $2000 (and by the time i finish writing this piece, it might be $2200) and </span><a href="https://in.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-AAPL/" style="font-family: arial;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Apple</span></a><span style="font-family: arial; line-height: 115%;"> is way past the 2Tr$ Marcap, I receive a text message from
an enthusiastic friend of mine who first started investing a few months ago
(March 2020) after being forced to work from home and shared his stellar
success at his new-go at the markets. He shared his desire to be a
professional fund </span><span style="font-family: arial;">manager and started exploring ways to get a SEBI license to
be a RIA (Investment Advisor) or a Portfolio Manager.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="text-align: justify;">Being an investor since 1992 when I made my first investment and having managed
funds for family and friends all life and now as a professional Fund Manager
since the last few years, and having seen euphoria and fear again and again, I
can say with some degree of confidence that this time it isn’t different and something is about to give way.</span></span></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Covid has
been the most unfathomable disruption, the likes of which hasn’t been seen by
anyone alive today. The concept of <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blackswan.asp#:~:text=A%20black%20swan%20is%20an,they%20were%20obvious%20in%20hindsight." target="_blank">Black Swan</a> stands redefined which – till now
– was an unexpected and improbable event and people would often relate to it by
comparing it with a Tsunami or an accident or a sudden unexpected failure of an
enterprise with global ramifications.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: arial;">No one had ever imagined that within days, the global borders would be closed,
airlines across the planet would be grounded (95% still remain grounded as I
write this), and all levers of the global economy (travel, trade,
manufacturing, shipping) would come to a grinding halt. ‘Sudden Stop’ in global
economy was an academic expression that became a reality almost instantly.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEge-YtE-vysZuAXc3ftuALzhGSJM4Ze0v3rLgW5FyRF0oRLyKsna3OzCLCBpdKlfSbyUnrL9IMpgA3R7uBwzRekKvzwm60Yds_wPuUKjrxkFXOciPvwK9VfT1LKQkP9Xo49Uaj96yECoFI/s1280/www.manurishiguptha.com.jpeg" style="font-family: arial; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1280" data-original-width="1147" height="410" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEge-YtE-vysZuAXc3ftuALzhGSJM4Ze0v3rLgW5FyRF0oRLyKsna3OzCLCBpdKlfSbyUnrL9IMpgA3R7uBwzRekKvzwm60Yds_wPuUKjrxkFXOciPvwK9VfT1LKQkP9Xo49Uaj96yECoFI/w367-h410/www.manurishiguptha.com.jpeg" width="367" /></a><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/08/business/economy/april-jobs-report.html">Some 30 million Americans lost their
jobs</a></span><span style="line-height: 115%;"> (more than 3
times than the previous highest), markets crashed by about 40% in 3-4 trading sessions, China got blamed for its alleged Chinese Virus, oil hit (-) 37 $
while the global leaders remained clueless and the only policy response was a
complete lockdown of nations as leaders grappled with the enormity of the situation.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Hundreds of
millions of people have lost their jobs and millions of small businesses
have shut down forever and the economic contraction has been so secular that
some of the most high flying businessmen and executives have resigned
themselves to the new normal only yearning for their basic needs to be met for
their families and themselves.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: arial;">While some countries have shared the real data and the extent of severe and
unprecedented economic contraction, most have conveniently chosen not to release
the same either to avoid embarrassment or to avoid panic. But imagine, for a
second, that everything (revenue, earnings, profit, salaries, rentals, commoditiesetc etc etc) gets deflated by 40-70% - what effect
it is likely to have on the global economy.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">If the
savings rate from income varies from 1% to 25% in different parts of the globe (it
is believed that more than 70% Americans have less than $500 in savings and the
max savings rate is about 25% in China and India), it is safe to assume that
every person on a monthly salary / entrepreneur is already digging into life
investments and assets to keep afloat as the inflow (after salary cuts or loss
of income) is far lesser than the outflow. Majority of my friends and
acquaintances have either stopped their SIPs or redeemed their Mutual Funds. </span><a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/equity-inflows-crashes-95-in-june-sip-flows-dip-for-3rd-month-amfi/articleshow/76853236.cms?from=mdr"><span style="line-height: 115%;">I read that last 2 months have been
the worst for the MF industry because of incessant redemptions and negligible
inflows</span></a><span style="line-height: 115%;">.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And Yet…<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">The Indian
and global stock markets have shown immense resilience making these an easy ATM
to churn out daily profits for </span><a href="https://transfin.in/who-are-the-robinhood-traders-in-the-indian-stock-market"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Robinhooders</span></a><span style="line-height: 115%;">.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Human memory
is short and 10 years is a long time to lose and gain confidence all over again
and the stars (Corporations and Executives) of yesteryears fade away while the
new ones emerge on the evolutionary principles of Creation - Preservation and
Destruction</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: arial;">It is
believed statistically that 95% of market participants and fund managers have
less than 12 years of experience which implies that only 5% have seen the crash
of 1987, 2000, 2008 and a few other mentionable flutters in between. And human
mind is generally tuned to be optimistic as hope and evolution trains the mind
to expect a better future always in every which way. Little credence is given
to people who invoke caution and sometimes border pessimism as a result of
lifelong experiences and perhaps that’s the reason the </span><a href="https://www.cnbctv18.com/market/stocks/is-warren-buffett-losing-his-edge-to-age-ken-fisher-says-oracle-is-becoming-inactive-6075401.htm" style="font-family: arial;" target="_blank">world is deriding WarrenBuffett for having lost a decade by underperforming</a><span style="font-family: arial;"> and not investing in Tesla
and Amazon and all the 30 yr olds have seemingly outperformed by simply
investing in Tesla or Kodak or Overstock kind of shares.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Parameters
such as performance Ratios, Profits, Real cash in the hands of shareholders
have lost every mentionable significance and price earnings of 200/300 or even
1000 in case of Tesla seems like 'THE' new normal.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">And while the bears have been irreparably scathed in this recent melt-up, it
would be prudent to remember that over long periods of time, either the price
catches up with the fundamentals of a stock or the fundamentals catch up with
the price, but just to put the things in
perspective (and I know nothing about Tesla and am not a Tesla basher sitting
here in India – but it’s a good example) if Tesla was to maintain its present
earnings, it would take about 1000 years to fully recover ones investment
through Tesla s present earnings. Anyone who buys a Tesla stock now is </span><a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/502208/tesla-quarterly-vehicle-deliveries/"><span color="" style="text-decoration-line: none;">valuing it at
approx. a million dollars for every car sold</span></a><span style="line-height: 115%;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Markets are
a beautiful place that allow immense wealth to be created and accumulated for
people who have patience and discipline but history is replete with examples of
more than 70% of investors of all times to have permanently lost capital by
chasing garbage (aka penny stocks) that seems to provide short term euphoria.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lets talk of
a few Indian stocks and themes or should I say wealth destroyers.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Between 2003 and 2008 Infra and Housing was a great story and a mere
‘infratech’ (use of tech and infra) in a company s name would get it rerated.
Unitech, IVRCL, HCC, NCC, Sintex, DLF, …………… have destroyed almost 99% of
shareholder wealth and most of these names have got delisted leading to
permanent destruction of wealth. During hay days these were stocks that were
the market darlings<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Then came
the era of banking and finance. Between 2009 and 2018 NBFC s and Banks had a
dream run before the euphoria and invincibility of the sector was popped by the
ILFS, Yes and DHFL type of fiascos and recently while a top outgoing CEO dumped
his entire shareholding and ESOPS of 26 years in a jiffy (perhaps to pay for
the expenses of grocery, maids and electricity bills during tough times amidst the
pandemic), the gullible public and minority shareholders will be the last to
keep holding the hot potatoes and the music would stop suddenly.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">And Now</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">We have the
API and the pharma theme on an assumption that all the medicine factories on
this planet will stop production and all pharma orders will come rushing to
Indian companies and the world population might start eating medicines instead
of fruits and vegetables all produced by Indian pharma companies.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">The same
story gets repeated again and again. While the robinhooders are gloating in the
wealth created by some new age, recently discovered pharma companies doubling
in the value in less then 2-3 months, the end is always painful when the music or
the party stops. And by the way graphite was the pharma of today or pharma/API was the <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/global-demand-surge-has-graphite-stocks-on-fire/articleshow/60269778.cms" target="_blank">graphite of those times</a>.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">The 5%
people who have been around, all of them understand this, having gone thru
cycles, but the 95% neither have the wherewithal or the research to truly
fathom the depth or the lack of it in the present euphoria.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Every crop
must be harvested at a specific and optimum time, lest it should rot. Same goes
for ones stocks, corporations, businesses. Buying or creating is natural to
ones instinct of evolution, letting go / harvesting is an art which very few
understand or develop. And most end up in a feeling of regret esp small and
minority retail investors who fall in love with their stocks, cannot sell and take the profits home.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">The trouble
is that most fund managers are obliged to be eternally optimistic (ignoring the
risks) else they would face redemption thereby leading to lesser fees for the
fund-house. Very few investors realize that cash in itself is a strategy and a
position worth considering and to be in from time to time.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">As Howard
Marks says “To be a disciplined investor you have to be willing to stand by and
watch other people make money on things that you passed on”.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Irony of the
markets is well evidenced, rather strongly in just this one case in point :-
PVR Cinemas</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: arial;">PVR used to
be a perfectly fine and a successful popcorn and coke reseller till the
pandemic struck and just 11 days of disruption in March saw its profit fall
thru the floor. The future is bleak with zero sale in first 2 quarters and any
of the movie buffs whom I have spoken to in Delhi, Bangalore and Bombay (where PVR has max
screens) are not going back to a cinema hall as people have found a new freedom
on OTT platforms and using <a href="https://www.amazon.in/s?k=projector+for+home+4k&crid=HRWNBL1IXDLY&sprefix=project%2Caps%2C312&ref=nb_sb_ss_i_2_7" target="_blank">affordable projectors at home</a> and replicating a
cinema hall effect without risking oneself to the virus-exposure. </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Producers are
preferring - selling to and releasing movies through OTT platforms as that
reduces their risk to zero. And yet retail investors are finding virtue in this
company that has zero sales, bleak future, debt ridden and trading at 300 times
its trailing earnings and no visibility of the future earnings. Some PVR stock
lovers say – all will be well in a few years, we are looking at 2030.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">CNBC has
single headedly taken it upon itself to create a euphoric environment shrouded
by global liquidity and has allowed all dubious promoters to talk up their
stocks only on the base of 'positive commentary' as if the alchemist in them can
turn just commentary into profits, cash and dividends.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">On the other
had a company like ITC that produces more cash and profits than all the other
6-7 top FMCG companies, is debt free, is trading at abysmally low valuations
(15 times trailing earnings) and yet the robinhooders find it less appealing.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">This
dichotomy will self correct sooner rather than later and will come with its own
collateral damage which most new entrants in the markets aren't ready to handle.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Harvest Your
crop, take profits off the table, let some notional profits be lost along the
way but evaluate the risk and reward that any company, valuation, story,
potential – offers.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">If this fine art of valuation equilibrium can be
discovered, small investors would do themselves a great service of increasing
their longevity in the markets and protecting their capital.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Enjoy the party, stay close to the door, so when
the stampede starts, You can safely escape without being trampled.<br /><br />My twitter handle <a href="https://twitter.com/manurishiguptha" target="_blank">@manurishiguptha</a></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">www.manurishiguptha.com</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="http://www.mrgcapital.in">www.mrgcapital.in</a></span></p>Manu Rishi Gupthahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16628261943554617736noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3339821117106681620.post-10442968940025226412020-05-15T10:30:00.000+05:302020-05-15T16:44:55.237+05:30Is God The Richest & The most Selfish being on the planet?<span style="color: #0b5394; font-size: large;">The Fragile ground, God's been occupying for 5000 yrs</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
Human
Race and all other living beings were pretty much content with foraging
sleeping and procreating for millions of years till God arrived and changed
every single order that existed since last 2 million years, made us all
useless, allowed us to comfort and bask in the warmth of its existence and the
proverbial eye that it kept on us.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMK1hfYl3n3PGkOJnmryDqsSEzjtAGj4xvJD6nUIw4_tOOVL_vSFzgoNKdyulq6ktdhIjC7O0AanSsLzsq20iAJLwQGjuEr2rk7Z7tIMw_XVTYTsZWTdXpEWGWGBiceownFsRAaGB5aQY/s1600/God+on+slippery+slope.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMK1hfYl3n3PGkOJnmryDqsSEzjtAGj4xvJD6nUIw4_tOOVL_vSFzgoNKdyulq6ktdhIjC7O0AanSsLzsq20iAJLwQGjuEr2rk7Z7tIMw_XVTYTsZWTdXpEWGWGBiceownFsRAaGB5aQY/s400/God+on+slippery+slope.jpeg" width="400" /></a><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">We
Human Beings found solace in our hopes and beliefs because our focus shifted
from the just the next meal and safety from adversaries & superior animals in
food chain, to future comforts, education, aspirations, ambitions, greed,
career, outperformance among the same species (highly characterised among the
human beings of the present day mostly measured by solitaires and purses among
women and cars and homes among men).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">For
the longest period of time we found comfort in deriding and under-appreciating
Darwin and refused to believe that the fittest survive and organisms evolve and
the weak perish. Because God came in between. As God was really the ultimate
saviour from all known and unknown perils so far.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">And
God took advantage !!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">The
politics of </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/3/130313-pope-vatican-catholics-smoke-pyrotechnics-science/"><span style="line-height: 115%;">white smoke over The Vatican</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">, the </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://berkleycenter.georgetown.edu/essays/karma-hinduism"><span style="line-height: 115%;">hindu belief of karma</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"> etc, Islamic belief of </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Pillars_of_Islam"><span style="line-height: 115%;">shahada sanat zakat sawm hajj</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"> all made the human
mankind dependant on the emotional crutches of the mind and faith and belief in
the unknown and unseen.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">All
this while, in the human memory (average life span 70 years and active memory
50 years) people remembered what was convenient and passed on what was even
more convenient. And God survived and thrived because we became slaves of the
future aspirations for ourselves, for our progeny and started believing in God
as the protector and the provider.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">God
has also been terribly lucky for an infinitely long time. Everything that
is known to and seen by man has a limited lifespan. Take the strongest of
edifices, the largest of corporations, beliefs and ideologies – irrespective of
the robustness in those times - these had limited longevity. The largest
corporations have hardly been able to survive more than a hundred years, </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_India_Company"><span style="line-height: 115%;">East India Company</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"> was really more an Empire
rather than a company and yet perished.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">And
God lasted the longest !!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Because
humanity never lost faith.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Divide
and rule came to be believed to be more of a modern day adage but it always
existed. It always was what drove the world based on difference of opinions and
beliefs and created just about enough conflict to maintain a balance in-spite
of the religious holy wars. And agree or not, different Gods, through their self anointed representatives, tried hard to use
this tool to control their respective fiefdoms.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Vagaries
of nature in the form of Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Diseases, Floods, Droughts were
never global, so-far, and we could always blame on the collective karma of the
region. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">The
</span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake_and_tsunami"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Tsunami of 2004</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">, the </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina"><span style="line-height: 115%;">hurricane Katrina</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"> (even though </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1900_Galveston_hurricane"><span style="line-height: 115%;">hurricane Galveston</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"> of 1900 was the most
severe) were all severe but isolated events and we humans spared a thought for
the fellow humans who lost their lives and were in the middle of such adversity
but moved on with our lives the next day as the world moved on and the global
economic engine moved efficiently. Deaths owing to these adversities became sad
statics after a while.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Corona
perhaps is the most secular event that has ever happened to Earth and all the
purveyors of religion stand exposed because while the world waits for the
vaccine to be discovered (which some say, is 18 months to 5 yrs away) the Gods
have abandoned their posts, through which they used to instil hope and fear, and
are suddenly missing in action.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Why
else could such a scale of trouble not be sorted out by God. Most of us have
resigned to our </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4076324/"><span style="line-height: 115%;">deservingness bias</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"> or the </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just-world_hypothesis"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Just-World</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"> theory because “God is
Great”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">But
one hypothesis definitely stands theorised – “God is only our fair weather friend”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Because
the rapidity with which God deserted the guardianship of human race, its own
places of worship is rather alarming. I was surprised recently, that the representative/incarnation
of God was <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WySwhj2SwE">too angry to
shake hands with a young lady</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Now
lets look at the God’s PnL and Balance Sheet <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Between
the top religious organisations (links to research on their assumed wealth below)
this is one corporation of religions that seems to enjoy all authority and no
responsibility. Sift through the articles and the God’s (all of theirs) Balance Sheet could
well be over 50 trillion dollars. About 2-3 years of USof A ‘s GDP.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">This
is just the declared wealth. In addition to available data, each of the top 50
religious places of worship earn over 150 million dollars each per annum. A temple in India annually earns about <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/india/south/story/tirumala-temple-earns-huge-money-from-auctioning-human-hair-104425-2012-06-04" target="_blank">27 million US $ from just the sale of human hair</a> that are given there as offering.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Bottom
line – These numbers are staggeringly unfathomable. And enough to remove all
miseries from the planet.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">The
Associations, Trusts and Bodies that control these religious institutions
should now rise to the occasion and open their coffers and allow the vast
quantum of wealth collected from the contributions of the very people who are
in peril.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Governments
through their powers must exercise their right to make these religious
organisations responsible, in the national interest, for the greater good of humanity and nations.
National treasures must be used and monetised to manage national and global
calamities. The gold reserves of religious institutions that are off
balance sheet items, off the reserves of the central banks of respective
countries across the planet must be used to alleviate the suffering (financial
and hunger and medical) <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Why
else are we all paying annual premiums (through our pilgrimages and offerings)
to God if it’s not buying the mankind any insurance.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">God
isn’t represented by a place, person, shape or festival. God is and should be a
way of life, conduct character and compassion towards the beautiful planet and its habitants, where we got a chance to 'BE'.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><i>"Rise
up Oh dear God and demonstrate Your benevolence and open up Your coffers, for You haven’t been on a more
slippery slope in over 5000 years."</i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">
<i></i></span>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><i><i>References</i></i></span></div>
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><i>
<o:p></o:p></i></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/wealth-of-roman-catholic-church-impossible-to-calculate"><span style="font-size: x-small; line-height: 115%;">Vatican Roman Catholic Church</span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://www.quora.com/What-are-some-of-the-richest-places-of-worship-in-the-world"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Padmanabhaswamy Temple, Kerala, India</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-net-worth-of-Tirumala-Tirupathi-Devastham"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Tirumala Tirupati Devastham</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://thehumornation.com/5-richest-religious-organizations-in-the-world/"><span style="line-height: 115%;">5 Richest Religious Organisations in
the World</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN"><a href="http://archive.indianexpress.com/news/saibaba-investment-rs-4271702929-cr/733071/"><span style="font-size: x-small; line-height: 115%;">Shridi Sai Baba Trust</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
Manu Rishi Gupthahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16628261943554617736noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3339821117106681620.post-47148225253008968782020-05-03T19:13:00.002+05:302020-05-03T20:37:21.111+05:30What Indian Kings and Leaders have in common - “Keep’m Poor!"<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN">As I saw <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Unnao_rape_case">Sengar</a> walking
out of the court with a despicable smirk on his ugly face, his expression said
“I might have committed the most heinous crime but this is a minor blip and I
will soon be back – because in India “Sab Chalta Hai”. How I wish and pray someone
had <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-50682262">done a
Hyderabad</a> on him.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
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<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN">And that smirk has pretty much defined the
character of this nation. Whether its corruption , conduct of politicians and
citizens alike, getting away with proverbial murder or whatever…..<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
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<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhgAx-GqL-RT0m3acjA0jUA2Etw5R2nu_GL4b2kvDcAtGPfuBhT63yME6gxk_WSfpNUxLtDL-OjNJCUMB_wnoK8O2ebsZReCKHKlbhBBf-uqJV9_oTIKF9vjk8uZe0Hl62XPvKSB0jKlo/s1600/IRS+Blog+-+Manu+Rishi+Guptha.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: justify;"><img border="0" data-original-height="947" data-original-width="1280" height="293" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhgAx-GqL-RT0m3acjA0jUA2Etw5R2nu_GL4b2kvDcAtGPfuBhT63yME6gxk_WSfpNUxLtDL-OjNJCUMB_wnoK8O2ebsZReCKHKlbhBBf-uqJV9_oTIKF9vjk8uZe0Hl62XPvKSB0jKlo/s400/IRS+Blog+-+Manu+Rishi+Guptha.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
So as my dear friend, prolific and thought
leader par excellence - <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/authors/ASj7dG4ftKY/andy-mukherjee">Andy
Mukherjee</a> recommends <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/authors/ASj7dG4ftKY/andy-mukherjee">article
after article</a>, ways to take this country out of an economic malaise through
large spends on development, in all three scenarios of BC DC AC (Before During
After Corona), I beg to disagree with his positivism and audacity of hope, as
large part of every Initiative, Govt spending, Tax collection, Infra spend,
gets diluted and withered away to land into the pockets of corrupt stakeholders
at all levels thereby depriving every single citizen of India – A truly morally
and ethically clean nation. And any strategy fulcrummed on a spend centric
evolution is most likely to be withered away or land where the tax dollars
mustn’t.</div>
<span lang="EN-IN"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN"><br /></span></div>
<span lang="EN-IN">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gettysburg_Address"></a><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gettysburg_Address">Abraham Lincoln s
Gettysburg speech in 1863</a> has been a bedrock of ideology of every
democratic nation on this planet, but few nations have been able to follow / imbibe
it in its true spirit. Most have just lost the opportunity of implementing true
democracy.</div>
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN">Societies that establish democracy on the
bedrock of truthfulness and discipline (Singapore) – flourish, but societies
that use democracy as a fundamental right to abuse the system and to get away
with everything, neither deserve the luxuries of a democracy not would they be
able to imbibe a degree of conduct that is expected for a democracy to flourish
and function.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
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<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN">Let me endeavour to address a few points
that frustrates a middle-class/educated Indian & that are reflective of the
state of a nation. And how in the AC (After Corona) world the moral compass of
humans and nations could change for the better. But that cannot happen if we
don’t recognise and acknowledge the real virus plaguing the deepest innards of
our character.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN">Corruption<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN">In my mind corruption is the most
debilitating virus that has embedded in the soul of the nation and if it drains
an average of 10% to the Mr. 10 %’s of the nation we are looking at an average
annual loss/leakage of approx. 200-250 Billion USD. I am still reminded of a
gentleman named Madhu Koda many many years ago (I am not even sure whether he
is alive or dead) who in a mere few months of being in power allegedly <a href="https://www.livemint.com/Politics/UAzyUmk7LrKg2lzXe1HXEO/The-rise-and-fall-of-Madhu-Koda.html">amassed
thousands of crores of wealth</a> through abuse of power. Compare that to an
ignorable flutter when a few <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-11899534">MPs in the British
Parliament submitted a few parking tickets that were fake and had to resign</a>
instantly from their positions. An indiscretion like that would be considered a
joke in India – maybe considered a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundamental_rights_in_India">fundamental
right</a>. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
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<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN">“If one can get away with something, one
will most certainly get away” – and that’s the basic problem with democracy. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
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<br /></div>
</div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN">State of Infrastructure..<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN">Nations have been judged on the strength of
their infrastructure – which has catapulted cities/nations to become the global
hub of finance and fulcrum of progress – <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Underground">London Underground</a>
and not any intellectual superiority,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>is
one single catalyst that has catapulted London to become the financial hub of
the World.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
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<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN">It is believed that India has a <a href="http://www.walkthroughindia.com/walkthroughs/11-most-amazing-facts-about-the-indian-road-network/">total
length of 4.3 million Kms</a> of road network that’s managed by state / central
governments. Each KM of road costs approx. 1.4 mill USD for a national highway
and about 0.7 mill USD for a feeder road/state highway to construct. At an
average of 1 mill USD per km, we are looking at staggering numbers that are
being spent on infrastructure – primarily roads. A leakage of a few percentage
points (at a general norm of 10%) we are looking at billions of dollars of
leakage by junior officers, contractors delivering deficiency of service and
quality. (rough estimates peg this at 3-5 Bill USD). Most roads across the
country need to go through just one rainy season to get completely eroded. It
was shameful in the global media, when a <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/watch-artist-dressed-up-as-astronaut-moonwalks-on-crater-size-potholes-in-bengaluru/videoshow/70948040.cms">prankster
made a video wearing a space suit</a> and what appeared to be craters on moon
were in reality a usual road in Bangalore.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN">And during my world travels, when I end up
visiting same areas year after year, I haven’t seen any eroded road even on the
usual routes that I travel because roads there – last for years without any maintenance.
Why – Because they do their job right as per specifications and as per
contract.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
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<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN">Enforcement of Contracts<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN">In one of my jobs, I entered into a registered
contract to provide some service to someone. And the other party used my
service for a year and reneged on the obligation to pay me for it. Shame on our
internal system of judiciary and enforcement of contracts that I, I the last 2
years haven’t been able to even deliver the summons to the other party inspite
of all the technological advances of emails WhatsApp text-messages because we
are still romanticising the systems of 1900’s of a court official delivering
subpoenas and leaving all loopholes to be exploited. A nation where a
registered promise cannot be enforced – has no real future and can never
enthuse any degree of confidence either in an investor, or an entrepreneur –
Because You one get away with everything.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
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<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN">State of PSUs<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN">Someone rightly / clichéd<i>ly</i> said –
Government should never be in the business of business. </span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">When Coal India launched
its IPO, many many years ago, it was expected to become the most valuable
company on the planet at that time. Afterall we were dealing with monopoly, </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/indl-goods/svs/metals-mining/economic-coal-reserves-needs-to-be-identified-faster-coal-secretary-to-coal-india-exploration-arm/articleshow/72943824.cms?from=mdr"><span style="line-height: 115%;">infinite coal reserves</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"> (probably the largest in
the world) some say enough for another 150 years. Yet Coal india is being
operated at the lowest possible level of efficiency. Has destroyed entire
shareholder wealth and has seemingly no future. </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/Swaminomics/sorry-greta-india-needs-more-coal-to-power-growth/"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Swaminathan Iyer wrote in the TOI
many weeks ago</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"> about the inefficiency of Coal India Ltd and the key take
away point was – Indian worker produces 0.8 tonnes of coal per man shift
compared to Australia that produces 40 tonnes per man shift. In the name of
socialism the much earlier Prime Ministers created and concentrated national
reserves and treasures as engines of welfare for Politicians, officers and
workers at large. If the extraction of coal per person per day cannot be linked
to the compensation of the CMD of Coal India and every single of its 300,000
employees – the PSUs will continue to erode taxpayers money and shareholder
wealth. It was also the same eminent </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/swaminathan-s-a-aiyar/india-to-overtake-china-in-2020-swaminathan-aiyar/articleshow/5401241.cms"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Mr. Iyer who predicted in Jan 2010
that India will over take China by 2020</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">. Alas it remined a dream that might not
come true for another 2 decades….<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Some
20 years ago as a 25 yr old manager of a small hotel (at the start of my
life) in a small hilly town I would always desire my hotel to be full. I would
do all that it took to ensure that every guest who ever checked in would always
come back and never go anywhere else. At that time I was keen to get a
confirmed business of an Oil PSU to be their designated-hotel for their
visiting executives from all over the country. Only to realise, as I overheard
during a social gathering, that that PSU has an emotionally watertight contract with a hotel
far lower in class and service than mine, because the dealing officer gets
approx. 2 lacs a year to renew that contract (Mind You I am talking of year
2000). That year he got a Maruti Zen (a popular car of that time). TVM (Time
Value of Money) pegs that amount at about 30 lacs in todays value. Such is the
quantum of leakage – All at taxpayers expense. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">No
wonder how hard You try – even though oil is floating and being thrown away/sold
free across the planet, its still selling at over Rs 70 per litre in India. -
Inefficient monopolistic OMC’s do churn a profit – But they could churn many
times more.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Imagine
this is just one instance of one PSU involving one city and one officer.
Extrapolate it to the entire country. You would want to shoot Yourself in the
head – if You complete that math.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Take
the case of Oil PSUs, NALCO, NBCC, HUDCO, SBI, GAIL, BHEL, BEL, etc etc etc. If
the respective Minister’s and MD’s salaries were directly linked to the EBIDTA
of these companies and to global thumb-rules of performance of similar
industries , they would have all done well. But the massive destruction of
shareholder wealth slowly orchestrated by the inefficient stakeholders at large
has truly eroded the incentive to perform and sowed the seeds of deep-rooted
malaise that has seemingly no cure. And it’s ironical that the Govt wants to
IPO The Life Corporation of India. Some quarters of financial whiz-kids are
gung-ho on LIC IPO. Mark my words today. It’s the biggest disaster waiting to
happen and biggest fraud on existing policy holders who are expected to partake
in the growth story of Indian economy and its financial markets.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Spare
a thought for an average tax paying Indian</span> </div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in;">
</div>
<ul>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">30-40% Income tax</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">18-28% VAT on everything</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Pathetic supply chain management resulting in inflation
upwards of 6-8% (that’s the real inflation really irrespective of the statisticians
claims)</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Most expensive Fuel in the world – despite of lowest
crude prices</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Accumulated losses of PSUs such as Air India @approx
150 employees per aircraft compared to just about 70 employees per aircraft
@indigo – the less said the better about the efficiency and hospitality of Air
India</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Infrastructure worst than what human mind can possibly
fathom or fragile human body can bear</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Public health and public education in shambles that
has allowed the private participants (private hospitals and private schools) to
emerge and charge obnoxious tariffs for rather mundane services.</span></li>
</ul>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
If
India has to survive the AC era where the likelihood of deflation and
depression will hit it like an unexpected Tsunami soon and the futile
narratives built around the demographic dividend (youngest population on the
planet) have to remain relevant – the character of this nation must change.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Taxation<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Social
Security / Consistency of salaries and allowances cannot be secured for half
the population (Government Employees) by the other half. The recent </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://www.livemint.com/money/personal-finance/income-tax-officers-suggest-40-tax-on-super-rich-covid-relief-cess-11587894341797.html"><span style="line-height: 115%;">unsolicited advice by some IRS
officers</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"> to increase taxes and subjecting incomes / profits to additional COVID
cess is both obnoxious and thoughtless and eeks of </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://www.diffen.com/difference/Communism_vs_Fascism"><span style="line-height: 115%;">fascistic mindset while masquerading
as communistic in thought processes</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"> but sounding more proletariat.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Taxing
the very few who are responsible through their capitalistic superiority by
taking risks and putting their capital to work should be rewarded for adding
economic value to the nation by generating millions of jobs and generating
already high taxes that are withered away by inefficiencies at every level with
abject neglect of accountability.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">On
the contrary, rather than taxing anything that moves, all that the Govt needs
to do is to allow the corporates to <b>draw a reverse Covid-Cess</b> (from a
national corpus created by the Govt to fight these unusual times) that is a
percentage of the sum of average taxes paid by the business in the last 5 years
or so.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Rather
than juggling with a future stimulus that’s impossible to figure out in a
complex country like India where the economic engine has come to a grinding
halt – Why cant a % of annual taxes paid be returned to the tax payer to
alleviate the economic pain.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">GST
has been a revolutionary reform that reflects the quantum of sale of an
organisation. The Govt can easily make a reasonable assumption of the Operating
Profit of respective businesses according to their industry and deduct that
from the reverse calculation of the revenues and provide that liquidity to enterprises
that allows these to survive.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">It
sounds mighty responsible while sitting on a high horse to say “Dont retrench
and don’t enforce a paycut” But can an organisation print/create money? – NO!!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">But
Governments Can – That’s what Governments are supposed to do while being
responsible in good times while collecting tub-full of taxes year after year.
And this isn’t the time to worry about Fiscal Deficit as inflation is the last
cause of worry when the entire nation is afraid to spend even for basic needs
because of the underlying fear of the unknown.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">With
all the alleged discipline that our policy makers seem to be proud of, we could
barely manage a BBB- on our sovereign, does anyone really care if it changes to
Junk.??<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">The
stimulus that will save this nation is elusive, and the little flutter that was
created so far is 0.8% of the GDP of India whereas USA has already given a
stimulus of 12% of GDP and an additional 2.6% of GDP in payroll protection. In
rupee terms Indias stimulus amounts Rs.1307 per capita in comparison to approx.
Rs 5 Lacs per capita in the US.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">The
greatest service that our politicians and officers can do right now is:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<ul>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Show
up more frequently (great leaders are always there in form and spirit)</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Demonstrate
that You feel the pain of the common man / businessman / taxpayer / who are
going through severe economic compression</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Avoid
frivolous, confidence draining statements (Ala IRS officer’s note to revive
economy)</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Find
simple ways to give much needed stimulus rather than inventing complex formulas
(that will never be perfected). Corporations / Individuals have P&L’s and
Balance Sheets – Find ways to just use existing declared data to reverse the
debits from these statements</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Involve
Industry leaders (who run real businesses and manage real situations) to tackle
this vicious enemy</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Reach
out to political opponents (who are experienced & educated) and shed the
walls of partisanship in the face of such adversity</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">And
above all let the economic engine NOT STOP under any circumstance. Restarting
it would take years</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">And
lastly build confidence among us 1.3 billion people. Loss of Confidence kills
the spirit to work, aspire, travel, purchase and that deflates an economy like
nothing else.</span></li>
</ul>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
The
AC world is going to be far far different than what we are imagining right now.
Not one economist / chartist / thought leader has the mental / academic bandwidth
to fully model the effect of Corona on our planet – as right now we are still
in the middle of a global crisis that’s unravelling.</div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
But
Lets get real , lets get going before its too late.</div>
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Follow on <a href="https://twitter.com/manurishiguptha" target="_blank">Twitter</a> </div>
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
Manu Rishi Gupthahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16628261943554617736noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3339821117106681620.post-17998197588190050382020-04-17T16:40:00.002+05:302020-04-17T16:40:44.220+05:30Difference between Akshay Kumar and Promoters of listed companies masquerading as PhilanthropistsCorona Virus is a tragedy, the likes and
intensity of which, this planet hasn’t seen in more than 100 years. While this
will change the basic behaviour of us humans, in ways that we can’t fully fathom
yet, everyone (esp the stalwarts of the industry and more specifically
promoters of listed companies) getting sentimental and pouring their hearts and
coffers out for the relief measures must remember a few things.<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGVjtGeAG-AzX2ABLX3c8fDh03-TywO8H78AtSCP3y_Q3rS1xOPVxUbk1mX4-UR8ss2tIJRt5ofTL1jD4C2CT_upvU8EcyY2vmotf8gItP8hyphenhyphen_hGFfSzHApiVy4fre7KPasiC6p7TXJC8/s1600/Philanthropy+blog+Akshay+Kumar+-+Manu+Rishi+Guptha.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="287" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGVjtGeAG-AzX2ABLX3c8fDh03-TywO8H78AtSCP3y_Q3rS1xOPVxUbk1mX4-UR8ss2tIJRt5ofTL1jD4C2CT_upvU8EcyY2vmotf8gItP8hyphenhyphen_hGFfSzHApiVy4fre7KPasiC6p7TXJC8/s400/Philanthropy+blog+Akshay+Kumar+-+Manu+Rishi+Guptha.jpeg" width="400" /></a><span lang="EN-IN">I speak in all humility and with the
audacity of hope that this too shall pass and will pass soon enough because of
the resilience and intelligence of the human race.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN">But……<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN">This honest request is to the promoters of
those listed companies who are collecting all brownie points and gloating by
appearing with pictures/selfies of multi million dollar cheques on TV Channels
contributing to the COVID relief funds – in a hope that MOCA (Ministry of Corp
Affairs) and PM himself will pardon all their creative accounting jugglery and sins
pertaining to corporate governance – spanning years.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN">The biggest joke was when <a href="https://www.indiatvnews.com/business/news-yes-bank-commits-rs-10-crore-for-covid-19-relief-works-604555">Yes
Bank recently contributed to COVID relief</a> partially at the expense of
taxpayers and partially the minority shareholders (lets call them muppets for the purpose of brevity)of SBI. And an amazing thing about
all this is that no one calls out this hypocrisy - loud enough.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN">Some of the top/most respected business houses in
India are trying to be the <a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/paragon%20of%20virtue">paragons
of virtue</a> during these trying times, committing thousands of crores and last drop of wealth etc – while conveniently forgetting that
the share prices of their companies are at decadal lows, their business decisions have indebted companies to the extent of tens and tens of billions of dollars, are on verge of
defaults on many fronts and have millions of muppets wiped out, and in private domain they are not blinking an eyelid while cutting salaries of staff members across board, of the very people who have stood by them for years/decades.</span><br />
<br />
<span lang="EN-IN">Yet……………….<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN">It’s the saddest moment in the life of a
promoter of a listed company when he fails to protect the capital of a muppet. - as ‘SIMPLE’ as that..<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN">Give with heartful and handful to the cause
– Nation needs it most currently than ever before – Nothing wrong in it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN">But give whatever - from Your personal net-worth
that’s accumulated over years and drawn salaries and perks over long periods of
time / ownership – mostly at the cost of the muppet. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-IN">Try not to screw Your own company twice-over.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-IN"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-IN">Because................</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<ul>
<li><span lang="EN-IN">Most of the listed companies have destroyed
wealth over long periods of time</span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN">Capital markets are financed by
muppets/retail shareholders <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>with a
belief that between the capital gains and dividend yields, an investor will
earn a significantly larger returns compared to the treasury yields of the
country of investment</span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN">Promoters have no right to treat the
company as their piggy bank for personal PR when the muppets are bleeding</span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN">If a company has even a single penny of
debt on its books and the promoters are still desirous of philanthropy, don’t do this at the
cost of a muppet as he gets ripped both ways.</span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN">Have the courage to sell Your wife’s jewellery,
or one house in south of France, or a Lamborghini, or a farmhouse in Alibaug /
Mahabaleshwar for these noble causes - not the diminishing cash on the Balance Sheet</span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN">It’s the muppet that services
the debt and leakage owing to promoter’s empire building initiatives and efficiency
of wealth destruction – as life and lifestyle of the promoter continues to go
on as usual irrespective of the global difficulties.</span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN">In most cases promoters with just a
small shareholding control corporations and keep bleeding these thru <a href="https://www.livemint.com/Auto/cZb9l65DeHphEx8HtrALAJ/ApolloTyres-Onkar-Neeraj-Kanwar-saw-salary-rise-even-as-p.html">exorbitant
salaries and perks and leakages of gargantuan proportions</a>.</span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN">Each time promoters use the company
coffers for any expense other than enhancement of ROE or ROCE, they are taking
away from the muppets to the extent of their share-holdings.</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Remember if you give 100 Cr to philanthropy
while owning just 50% of the company all of your 'mis'-decisions are
being financed by 'ME' and I am paying the balance 50 Cr – ‘THE MINORITY
SHAREHOLDER’.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN">In most of the cases the over-leveraged
companies just vanish over time while leaving a trail of
destruction for Shareholders and Financial Institutions.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN">A law must be put in place where salaries
and perks of the promoters of listed companies are a function of ROCE, ROE,
Leverage, Dividend Yield and these are the only metrics that will align the
interest of the alleged manager with that of the shareholder.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
AND<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN">On the other hand its just so profound and Godly
what people like <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akshay_Kumar">Akshay
Kumar</a> and many such individuals like him are doing and continue to do for humanitarian
causes. These individuals are citizens that make our nation proud and we will
forever be in their debt of gratitude. What Akshay <a href="https://yourstory.com/2017/04/akshay-kumar-bharat-ke-veere?utm_pageloadtype=scroll">does
for armed forces</a>, <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/bollywood/pulwama-terror-attack-akshay-kumar-to-donate-rs-5-cr-to-soldiers/story-DKczg1WePyH2XnyAtrxelJ.html">their
families</a> and being almost always there to help selflessly is the stuff of
the movies – literally. And his latest act of this <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/fight-against-coronavirus-akshay-kumar-pledges-to-donate-rs-25-cr-in-pm-cares-fund/articleshow/74863417.cms?from=mdr">large
contribution to COVID relief</a> is truly remarkable. What he <a href="https://twitter.com/mrsfunnybones/status/1243881516855447554?s=20">said
to his wife</a> moved me <i>“I had nothing when I started and now that I am in
this position, how can I hold back from doing whatever I can for those who have
nothing”</i><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN">Look at the life of actors. They are the 100%
owners of their enterprise of talent, have limited shelf life, could be out of
favor/flavor with just one movie flopping at the Box, are entirely responsible for
their personal balance sheets and profitability, carry a 100% Key Person Risk, Yet
are among the highest tax payers in the country – as they can’t hide behind the circuitous
veils of tax evading corporations and behave like the promoters of these. And
inspite of so many risks they truly demonstrate in action and spirit what being
a Good Human Being is all about.<br />
<br />
Hats off Brother Akshay – More power, steely resolve and long life to You.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN">And in the meanwhile, can the muppets get their voice and their act together and create a movement
against us all being ripped off.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN">God bless You all and God bless this planet<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-IN"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-IN">manu on <a href="https://twitter.com/manurishiguptha" target="_blank">@twitter</a></span><br />
manu on <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.in/author/manu-rishi-guptha/" target="_blank">huffingtonpost</a><br />
<span lang="EN-IN"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-IN"><br /></span></div>
<br />Manu Rishi Gupthahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16628261943554617736noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3339821117106681620.post-76104524074781297162020-04-12T03:02:00.000+05:302020-04-13T16:23:34.462+05:30The curious & inexplicable numbers of Avenue Supermarts (D’ Mart)<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Every
investor on this planet wants to strike as big as Buffett at some point in his
life at least once. And this brethren is secular, always researching, thinking calculating
and finding that one multi-bagger that would be life changing and altering.
This cannot be denied that more money can / has been / could, be made in stock
markets than any other asset class. As I write this piece, the evergreen “Gold”
is down 4% which is seemingly huge for its safe-haven reputation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjws1Jeg_zDBjY60tuLa-AfCOVLpW8zq3V9K4aDE7nlQkgsVDbC6hUvdEcf79MFRRvSKOk84VAPFFen4viG3mo0EJWdEsGjMNL4mN7KveAsRCUZiDIPxBDkS-Q7kENm7Fc84-N5zcA4SS8/s1600/Avenue+Supermarts+Blog.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="853" data-original-width="1280" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjws1Jeg_zDBjY60tuLa-AfCOVLpW8zq3V9K4aDE7nlQkgsVDbC6hUvdEcf79MFRRvSKOk84VAPFFen4viG3mo0EJWdEsGjMNL4mN7KveAsRCUZiDIPxBDkS-Q7kENm7Fc84-N5zcA4SS8/s400/Avenue+Supermarts+Blog.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">So
as </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/eopnlv6aspatc53/Avenue%20Snapshot.PNG?dl=0"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Avenue trades at close to 130 times</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> its trailing earnings,
(in spite of the market meltdown) and much after and higher than its </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://www.businesstoday.in/markets/company-stock/avenue-supermarts-collects-rs-4098-crore-from-qip-issue-bse/story/395938.html"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">QIP</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> at INR 2049 per share some
numbers do solicit attention and analysis. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">Recently the promoter Sh. Radha Krishna Damani catapulted to be the second richest
man in the country second only to Mr. Mukesh Ambani, with Avenue’s MarCap of
20.6 Bill USD, I was intrigued to learn that Avenue has only 200 stores
pan-India each store enjoying a MarCap of 103.3 Mill USD. (InR 775 Crores per
store)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">For
the record, Walmart has 11500 (57.5 times Avenue) Stores, does an annual sale
of 520 Bn USD (165 times Avenue), and MARCAP of 333 Bill USD (just 16 times
Avenue) and trading at a </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://in.investing.com/equities/wal-mart-stores"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">PE of 22 with a Div Yield of approx.
2%</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/5woaa51ftagwiv6/Avenue%20PNL%20Snapshot.PNG?dl=0" target="_blank">Avenue's Sales grew between FY16/17/18/19/ @ 39%/26%/33%/18% respectively YOY</a> so on an
average they grew at 29% YOY and by that run-rate it should be clocking annual
sales of 50000 Cr or 6.66 Bill US$ in FY 22-23<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The
shareholders, of a company that hasn’t decided to start paying dividends
inspite of this stellar performance will have to depend on capital appreciation
of stock and hypothetically recover their investment in ~130 years (if EPS of
Rs. 19.56 was to remain constant).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Now
lets look at the numbers:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<ul>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Avenue
Has 200 stores</span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Opens
for 11 hrs a day approx.</span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">If
the rush / customer inflow /outflow is on a bell curve pattern, peak operation
hrs could be considered at 6-7/day but we still take 11 hrs for the purpose of
liberal brevity</span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">@23500 Cr of annual rev it does 118 Cr per store per annum</span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Or
32.43 lacs per/day per store</span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">And
if the store is open for 11 hrs it would be 2.95 lacs per hr per store</span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">And
at ticket size of say 1500/customer</span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">D’Mart
is through putting 196 customers per hour per store in its 11 hr shift</span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Or</span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Say
3.28 customers per minute/store across the entire chain of 200 stores, without
a moment’s pause, each customer spending Rs 1500 in a matter of a few mins per till.</span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">That’s
a bit of a statistic and efficiency for an Indian company and it reminisces the
memories of another company that wanted to sell its mango juice to every
Indian and was a market darling of many Mutual Funds and Asset Managers for
the longest period of time.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">And
</span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/by-jove"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">By Jove</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">, with these numbers and
efficiency, Avenue deserves a valuation of 1000 PE and not just 115 because
then Jeff Bezos should be applying for a job as an apprentice with Avenue
Supermarts.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Investors
/ Shareholders / Customers if You cannot get out of D'Mart after shopping for a min of Rs. 1500 within 18.29 seconds, You are just wasting someone's time. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<i><span lang="EN-IN">Disclaimer:</span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span lang="EN-IN">No share ever bought in Avenue/No
personal interest thru any entity personal or related<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
Manu Rishi Gupthahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16628261943554617736noreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3339821117106681620.post-43309597890781696422020-03-31T23:55:00.001+05:302020-03-31T23:55:23.986+05:30Case for 'Exuberance' in the times of Uncertainty and Fear<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">As we see the world rummaging thru
the stores scampering for toilet paper its amazing to see how soon the
irrational exuberance as late as Jan 2020 has turned to unreasonable fear and
collectively, majority of the people become less confident of the future and
forget/ignore the resilience and the intelligence of human race.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">We Humans aren’t Gods gift to the
planet and no different from the virus/es that are attacking us and trying to
push us out/away either. But one thing that sets us apart is the refinement in
the way we communicate in multitude of languages and the way we have devised
languages to talk to machines and vice versa and analyse information/data.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQhVjyFi2EDZSbxpmQrl690bvCJjhdK1-8lnipPo9QZv17IV3HMffIc7NzRLR_LL0EZ6fo3lTbmIyOEZOTxkhlfQ5kUj1zRwSL37_hVDQUwlvQFF93Jkcbs1FVxLK24patvwqwRKmixJw/s1600/Get+busy+living+or+get+busy+dying+cartoon.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQhVjyFi2EDZSbxpmQrl690bvCJjhdK1-8lnipPo9QZv17IV3HMffIc7NzRLR_LL0EZ6fo3lTbmIyOEZOTxkhlfQ5kUj1zRwSL37_hVDQUwlvQFF93Jkcbs1FVxLK24patvwqwRKmixJw/s320/Get+busy+living+or+get+busy+dying+cartoon.jpeg" width="320" /></a><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">While a billion other species are
only struggling to survive and remain fit to procreate, Homo Sapiens have ‘almost’
moved up the value chain as we have been able to push back the concept of
natural mortality and nature’s purgatory forces thru dramatic advances in
medicine. We can travel faster than our own natural speeds and above all have put
another billion species in peril by uncontrolled procreation and taking over
the space of others.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Introspection can continue to happen
to reflect on our alleged pace of futile progress, the fact also remains that Corona
is just a blip in the history of mankind. The planet has been plagued by
multitude of vicissitudes over centuries and the fittest have always survived.
The Malthusian Theory of Population and food growth is likely to self-correct
the populations over long period of time and while we may continue to call this
China Virus or whatever, the humanity has brought this upon itself and this is
likely to disappear as rapidly as it emerged and created a havoc.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Not only are some of our nations
dogmatic and doctrinated – the ones that have taken it upon themselves to cleanse
this planet on basis of ethnicity starting from Hitler or Saddam etc but even
Homo Sapiens are being cleansed by the planet and its forces – Call it God,
Nature or whatever and that’s how time will be reset and excesses in the name
of progress will be deflated to maintain the equilibrium of this planet. In
economic terms it’s called reversion to mean.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">So while everyone around us is
calling out this outlier event to be a doomsday, and hypothetically even if it
was to wipe out majority of the entire human race, it would still be a blip in
the 4 billion years of the planets probable history.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">So whats the point….<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<ol>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">We have very little
control on how the planet / mother earth operates and reacts</span></span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The fittest will survive
and thrive</span></span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Momentary setbacks cannot
be allowed to convert temporary pain - permanent</span></span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The economic sudden stop
is brutal but is still temporary</span></span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The naysayers will be
taken by surprise and trapped the moment Mr. Corona disappears – which it will</span></span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Progress is the only
constant – Keep moving, learning and improvising</span></span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The old processes,
traditions and beliefs will become irrelevant – humans and corporations will be
required to be more nimble and dextrous.</span></span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">As we see that everything
self-corrects, excesses by us humans will stand corrected and everything will
revert to mean</span></span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">If adversity strikes and
kills you – you are lucky – but if you survive – make sure You definitely
emerge a winner on the other side (the meaning of winning will differ for
different people)</span></span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The lockdown is a God-sent
opportunity to appreciate silence, chirping of birds, respect the things that
you wouldn’t / couldn’t give a damn about </span></span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Acknowledge that you
really need very little for a contended life</span></span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Be conscious of an
apocalypse to make you humble – but be hopeful that that might never happen</span></span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Treat your employer as
your God – remember he is underwriting all risks</span></span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Step out into Ur balcony
and breathe consciously- appreciate that Oxygen available isn’t to be taken for
granted</span></span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Find time to forgive or
seek forgiveness – its liberating</span></span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Opportunities to learn, invest,
evolve only show up in adverse times – don’t miss these</span></span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">At the end of each day try
and be a shade wiser thru personal experiences or learnings from others – so
Read Read and Read even more</span></span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Be soft on yourself by
judging yourself on the measure of your intent, conduct and character and not
the car you drive or the 'zeroes' in your bank accounts</span></span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Treat others as you would
like yourself to be treated </span></span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Believe in “This too shall
pass”</span></span></li>
</ol>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">And lastly</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Remember that all the successes and failures of
yesterday concern us no more and all the unknowns of tomorrow concern us not
yet. So….<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Get busy livin’ or get
busy dyin’<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Because this Corona is temporary but the power
of human resilience and resolve is permanent.</span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;">twitter @manurishiguptha</span></div>
Manu Rishi Gupthahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16628261943554617736noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3339821117106681620.post-29530179674723186442020-03-24T13:12:00.002+05:302020-03-24T13:33:17.765+05:30Corona May be The Biggest Blessing in Disguise for Humanity<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black;">As Lenin famously quoted – <i>There are decades where
nothing happens and there are weeks where decades happen</i>. The start of the year
of Rat as per the Chinese Zodiac turned out to be uneventful and 2020 was
supposed to bring prosperity, progress, fertility and be lucky for all other
signs too.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix-Lf6Kj-WWAprmzcfiyJ_BlioN9BKxcWEVw1yl275UZGOW4Qk52A954g4M59qPjUVkuhSdeycqD72N_JMl9fQd4BaCRIiU7Ny64Es2yIBrb-lailE1W7pCjOplp3auyXZdN8te2Vvr8s/s1600/Corona+Cartoon+Manu+Rishi+Guptha+Blog.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix-Lf6Kj-WWAprmzcfiyJ_BlioN9BKxcWEVw1yl275UZGOW4Qk52A954g4M59qPjUVkuhSdeycqD72N_JMl9fQd4BaCRIiU7Ny64Es2yIBrb-lailE1W7pCjOplp3auyXZdN8te2Vvr8s/s320/Corona+Cartoon+Manu+Rishi+Guptha+Blog.jpeg" width="320" /></a><span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black;">Early-Feb 2020, Corona had just about started to grip China and the rest of
the world thought it to be more or less a china problem and a handful of senior
global leaders (who pretty much write the destiny of the rest of the 7.5
Billion of us) were still talking about trade wars and trade imbalances,
ideological differences on the basis of religion/military and finance leading
to deadly conflicts and business houses/businessmen gloating on the stock
prices of their companies being at lifetime high and designated as one or the
other richest in their country/region/world,numerically and then…..</span><span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black;">…. Before anyone could say </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Robinson_(mythical_person)">Jack
Robinson</a><span style="color: black;">, in less than 2 weeks this little virus
(now popularly called the China-Virus by the POTUS, and so will I, till the
Chinese stop eating anything that moves) created havoc by spreading like a wild
fire across the globe thereby bringing down the alleged edifices of financial,
intellectual, scientific, military and historical supremacy over each other in
less than 10 days. The global supply chains that we have been so proud of in
the name of industrial/trade revolution have come to a sudden stop. And we cant
do shit about it.</span></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black;">So much for the conflicts, divisions and havoc that we
created in the name of progress – that humanity stands naked at the precipice
of a bottomless abyss.</span><span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black;">Never ever since the advent of humanity and its recorded
history has the world been so genuinely secular and united just to be able to
survive and save itself from this cataclysm and everyone only worrying about
the most primordial need of Food, Shelter, Clothing and Procreation. And everyone is wishing well for everyone else just to ensure self-preservation</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black;">Ask Trudeau’s wife or Tom Hanks - both would give their
Power / Oscar just to be able to recover fully. Ask the top 10 richest people
on this planet – would they give everything away just to be able to save their
most loved one from this Virus if needed??</span><span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black;">Industrial revolution and relentless pursuit of profit (aka
capitalism or need to establish supremacy on just the metric of wealth) has
successfully destroyed what took a billion + years to get created. Take fossil
fuels, natural reserves, rivers, glaciers – we have sorted everything out in
less than 150 odd years and now we are wondering why and from where Mr. Corona
struck humanity.</span><span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black;">It’s the mother earth taking back its lost ground from us –
homo sapiens – who started believing themselves to be the most superior race.
Imagine a moment that all the money and the glory and the popularity isn’t able
to buy You Your next meal because You have to forage for it just like the old
times.</span><span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black;">Humbling – Isnt it?</span><span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/0oq2pkjs8ysqewf/Animals%20reclaiming%20their%20space.mp4?dl=0">Videos</a><span style="color: black;"> and Fotos doing rounds on the internet show that just
a few days of forced restraint on us wise homo sapiens has healed the planet of
its pollution, air is cleaner (thereby removing carcinogens), rivers have fish
again and animals aren’t afraid anymore and above all the endangered pangolins
and bats in China are heaving a sigh of relief.</span></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black;">All that we need to remember is, that the shriek of a
fellow cohabitant (animals, resources, poor/rich, fortunate/unfortunate) is all
the same in the face of adversity. We humans have been too damn lucky for too
damn long and have taken advantage of our respective situations.</span><span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black;">Corona and many such challenges will come and go but let’s
not lose the lesson that mother earth had to impose upon us so brutally. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenny_Rogers" target="_blank">Ol’Kenny’s words</a>, as he left us just 4 days ago, will continue to resonate always - “But in his final words I found an ace that I could keep” – Let these profound words
not go waste and learn the lessons that we must.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black;">And I believe that this reset is an opportunity for mankind
to find its soul lost in the morass of greed, corruption, one-upmanship and
destruction of our beautiful planet in the garb of progress. </span><span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black;">The choice is entirely ours!</span><span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black;">@manurishiguptha</span><span lang="EN-IN" style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />Manu Rishi Gupthahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16628261943554617736noreply@blogger.com22tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3339821117106681620.post-41545713744077911812020-02-11T17:25:00.001+05:302020-02-11T17:32:26.598+05:30How Will You Measure Your Life<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><i>Since I am personally fond of writing
and penning my thoughts as an active blogger, I have never been a fan of
producing anything verbatim. But <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clayton_Christensen">Clay Christensen</a> s
article from Harvard Business Review, below, is a lethal combination of
philosophy, Corporate Conduct, Prioritisation, life lessons and above all refreshingly
different from the humdrum of infinitely large supply of <a href="https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Gyaan">gyaan</a>
available on the net. I wanted this to be a permanent part of my timeline – Do read,
leave a comment and share if You please.</i><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggXEWiSogh-Jw1m4XmW39bLp1drTHyZUCAkcZQ8TtCfxZGg8dKimO7xX9mqEnuz2lkG3CMdWS0cspSBdyMHFPLHzNqBDdc4m_yjdNggp3tqanrbJ02S6l6D5k3_kPo0Grwfw7J-pSsLkM/s1600/Clay+Christensen.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="205" data-original-width="245" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggXEWiSogh-Jw1m4XmW39bLp1drTHyZUCAkcZQ8TtCfxZGg8dKimO7xX9mqEnuz2lkG3CMdWS0cspSBdyMHFPLHzNqBDdc4m_yjdNggp3tqanrbJ02S6l6D5k3_kPo0Grwfw7J-pSsLkM/s1600/Clay+Christensen.jpg" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Before I published <a href="https://hbr.org/product/innovator-s-dilemma-when-new-technologies-cause-gr/an/5851-HBK-ENG" style="background-position-x: 0px; background-position-y: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;" target="-new"><i><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration-line: none;">The Innovator’s Dilemma</span></i></a>, I got a call
from Andrew Grove, then the chairman of Intel. He had read one of my early
papers about disruptive technology, and he asked if I could talk to his direct
reports and explain my research and what it implied for Intel. Excited, I flew
to Silicon Valley and showed up at the appointed time, only to have Grove say,
“Look, stuff has happened. We have only 10 minutes for you. Tell us what your
model of disruption means for Intel.” I said that I couldn’t—that I needed a
full 30 minutes to explain the model, because only with it as context would any
comments about Intel make sense. Ten minutes into my explanation, Grove
interrupted: “Look, I’ve got your model. Just tell us what it means for Intel.”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">I insisted that I needed 10 more
minutes to describe how the process of disruption had worked its way through a
very different industry, steel, so that he and his team could understand how
disruption worked. I told the story of how Nucor and other steel minimills had
begun by attacking the lowest end of the market—steel reinforcing bars, or
rebar—and later moved up toward the high end, undercutting the traditional
steel mills.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">When I finished the minimill story,
Grove said, “OK, I get it. What it means for Intel is…,” and then went on to
articulate what would become the company’s strategy for going to the bottom of
the market to launch the Celeron processor.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">I’ve thought about that a million
times since. If I had been suckered into telling Andy Grove what he should
think about the microprocessor business, I’d have been killed. But instead of
telling him what to think, I taught him how to think—and then he reached what I
felt was the correct decision on his own.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">That experience had a profound
influence on me. When people ask what I think they should do, I rarely answer
their question directly. Instead, I run the question aloud through one of my
models. I’ll describe how the process in the model worked its way through an
industry quite different from their own. And then, more often than not, they’ll
say, “OK, I get it.” And they’ll answer their own question more insightfully
than I could have.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">My class at HBS is structured to help
my students understand what good management theory is and how it is built. To
that backbone I attach different models or theories that help students think
about the various dimensions of a general manager’s job in stimulating
innovation and growth. In each session we look at one company through the
lenses of those theories—using them to explain how the company got into its
situation and to examine what managerial actions will yield the needed results.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">On the last day of class, I ask my
students to turn those theoretical lenses on themselves, to find cogent answers
to three questions: First, how can I be sure that I’ll be happy in my career?
Second, how can I be sure that my relationships with my spouse and my family
become an enduring source of happiness? Third, how can I be sure I’ll stay out
of jail? Though the last question sounds lighthearted, it’s not. Two of the 32
people in my Rhodes scholar class spent time in jail. Jeff Skilling of Enron
fame was a classmate of mine at HBS. These were good guys—but something in
their lives sent them off in the wrong direction.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">As the students discuss the answers
to these questions, I open my own life to them as a case study of sorts, to
illustrate how they can use the theories from our course to guide their life
decisions.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">One of the theories that gives great
insight on the first question—how to be sure we find happiness in our
careers—is from Frederick Herzberg, who asserts that the powerful motivator in
our lives isn’t money; it’s the opportunity to learn, grow in responsibilities,
contribute to others, and be recognized for achievements. I tell the students
about a vision of sorts I had while I was running the company I founded before
becoming an academic. In my mind’s eye I saw one of my managers leave for work
one morning with a relatively strong level of self-esteem. Then I pictured her
driving home to her family 10 hours later, feeling unappreciated, frustrated,
underutilized, and demeaned. I imagined how profoundly her lowered self-esteem
affected the way she interacted with her children. The vision in my mind then
fast-forwarded to another day, when she drove home with greater
self-esteem—feeling that she had learned a lot, been recognized for achieving
valuable things, and played a significant role in the success of some important
initiatives. I then imagined how positively that affected her as a spouse and a
parent. My conclusion: Management is the most noble of professions if it’s
practiced well. No other occupation offers as many ways to help others learn
and grow, take responsibility and be recognized for achievement, and contribute
to the success of a team. More and more MBA students come to school thinking
that a career in business means buying, selling, and investing in companies.
That’s unfortunate. Doing deals doesn’t yield the deep rewards that come from
building up people.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">I want students to leave my classroom
knowing that.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Create a Strategy for Your Life</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">A theory that is helpful in answering
the second question—How can I ensure that my relationship with my family proves
to be an enduring source of happiness?—concerns how strategy is defined and
implemented. Its primary insight is that a company’s strategy is determined by
the types of initiatives that management invests in. If a company’s resource
allocation process is not managed masterfully, what emerges from it can be very
different from what management intended. Because companies’ decision-making
systems are designed to steer investments to initiatives that offer the most
tangible and immediate returns, companies shortchange investments in
initiatives that are crucial to their long-term strategies.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">Over the years I’ve watched the fates
of my HBS classmates from 1979 unfold; I’ve seen more and more of them come to
reunions unhappy, divorced, and alienated from their children. I can guarantee
you that not a single one of them graduated with the deliberate strategy of
getting divorced and raising children who would become estranged from them. And
yet a shocking number of them implemented that strategy. The reason? They
didn’t keep the purpose of their lives front and center as they decided how to
spend their time, talents, and energy.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">It’s quite startling that a
significant fraction of the 900 students that HBS draws each year from the
world’s best have given little thought to the purpose of their lives. I tell
the students that HBS might be one of their last chances to reflect deeply on
that question. If they think that they’ll have more time and energy to reflect
later, they’re nuts, because life only gets more demanding: You take on a
mortgage; you’re working 70 hours a week; you have a spouse and children.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">For me, having a clear purpose in my
life has been essential. But it was something I had to think long and hard
about before I understood it. When I was a Rhodes scholar, I was in a very
demanding academic program, trying to cram an extra year’s worth of work into
my time at Oxford. I decided to spend an hour every night reading, thinking,
and praying about why God put me on this earth. That was a very challenging
commitment to keep, because every hour I spent doing that, I wasn’t studying
applied econometrics. I was conflicted about whether I could really afford to
take that time away from my studies, but I stuck with it—and ultimately figured
out the purpose of my life.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<i style="font-size: 1.5rem;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<i style="font-size: 1.5rem;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Doing deals doesn’t yield
the deep rewards that come from building up people.</span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">Had I instead spent that hour each
day learning the latest techniques for mastering the problems of
autocorrelation in regression analysis, I would have badly misspent my life. I
apply the tools of econometrics a few times a year, but I apply my knowledge of
the purpose of my life every day. It’s the single most useful thing I’ve ever
learned. I promise my students that if they take the time to figure out their
life purpose, they’ll look back on it as the most important thing they
discovered at HBS. If they don’t figure it out, they will just sail off without
a rudder and get buffeted in the very rough seas of life. Clarity about their
purpose will trump knowledge of activity-based costing, balanced scorecards,
core competence, disruptive innovation, the four Ps, and the five forces.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">My purpose grew out of my religious
faith, but faith isn’t the only thing that gives people direction. For example,
one of my former students decided that his purpose was to bring honesty and
economic prosperity to his country and to raise children who were as capably
committed to this cause, and to each other, as he was. His purpose is focused
on family and others—as mine is.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<i style="font-size: 1.1875rem;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<i style="font-size: 1.1875rem;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The choice and successful pursuit of
a profession is but one tool for achieving your purpose. But without a purpose,
life can become hollow.</span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Allocate Your Resources</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">Your decisions about allocating your
personal time, energy, and talent ultimately shape your life’s strategy.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">I have a bunch of “businesses” that
compete for these resources: I’m trying to have a rewarding relationship with
my wife, raise great kids, contribute to my community, succeed in my career,
contribute to my church, and so on. And I have exactly the same problem that a
corporation does. I have a limited amount of time and energy and talent. How
much do I devote to each of these pursuits?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">Allocation choices can make your life
turn out to be very different from what you intended. Sometimes that’s good:
Opportunities that you never planned for emerge. But if you misinvest your
resources, the outcome can be bad. As I think about my former classmates who
inadvertently invested for lives of hollow unhappiness, I can’t help believing
that their troubles relate right back to a short-term perspective.</span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">When
people who have a high need for achievement—and that includes all Harvard
Business School graduates—have an extra half hour of time or an extra ounce of
energy, they’ll unconsciously allocate it to activities that yield the most
tangible accomplishments. And our careers provide the most concrete evidence
that we’re moving forward. You ship a product, finish a design, complete a
presentation, close a sale, teach a class, publish a paper, get paid, get
promoted. In contrast, investing time and energy in your relationship with your
spouse and children typically doesn’t offer that same immediate sense of
achievement. Kids misbehave every day. It’s really not until 20 years down the
road that you can put your hands on your hips and say, “I raised a good son or
a good daughter.” You can neglect your relationship with your spouse, and on a
day-to-day basis, it doesn’t seem as if things are deteriorating. People who
are driven to excel have this unconscious propensity to underinvest in their families
and overinvest in their careers—even though intimate and loving relationships
with their families are the most powerful and enduring source of happiness.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #282828; font-family: "gt america"; font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #282828; font-family: "gt america"; font-size: 16px;">If you study the root causes of business disasters, over and over
you’ll find this predisposition toward endeavors that offer immediate
gratification. If you look at personal lives through that lens, you’ll see the
same stunning and sobering pattern: people allocating fewer and fewer resources
to the things they would have once said mattered most.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Create a Culture</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">There’s an important model in our
class called the Tools of Cooperation, which basically says that being a
visionary manager isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. It’s one thing to see into
the foggy future with acuity and chart the course corrections that the company
must make. But it’s quite another to persuade employees who might not see the
changes ahead to line up and work cooperatively to take the company in that new
direction. Knowing what tools to wield to elicit the needed cooperation is a
critical managerial skill.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The theory arrays these tools along
two dimensions—the extent to which members of the organization agree on what
they want from their participation in the enterprise, and the extent to which
they agree on what actions will produce the desired results. When there is
little agreement on both axes, you have to use “power tools”—coercion, threats,
punishment, and so on—to secure cooperation. Many companies start in this
quadrant, which is why the founding executive team must play such an assertive
role in defining what must be done and how. If employees’ ways of working
together to address those tasks succeed over and over, consensus begins to
form. MIT’s Edgar Schein has described this process as the mechanism by which a
culture is built. Ultimately, people don’t even think about whether their way
of doing things yields success. They embrace priorities and follow procedures
by instinct and assumption rather than by explicit decision—which means that
they’ve created a culture. Culture, in compelling but unspoken ways, dictates
the proven, acceptable methods by which members of the group address recurrent
problems. And culture defines the priority given to different types of
problems. It can be a powerful management tool.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">In using this model to address the
question, How can I be sure that my family becomes an enduring source of
happiness?, my students quickly see that the simplest tools that parents can
wield to elicit cooperation from children are power tools. But there comes a
point during the teen years when power tools no longer work. At that point
parents start wishing that they had begun working with their children at a very
young age to build a culture at home in which children instinctively behave
respectfully toward one another, obey their parents, and choose the right thing
to do. Families have cultures, just as companies do. Those cultures can be
built consciously or evolve inadvertently.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">If you want your kids to have strong
self-esteem and confidence that they can solve hard problems, those qualities
won’t magically materialize in high school. You have to design them into your
family’s culture—and you have to think about this very early on. Like
employees, children build self-esteem by doing things that are hard and
learning what works.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Avoid the “Marginal Costs” Mistake</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">We’re taught in finance and economics
that in evaluating alternative investments, we should ignore sunk and fixed
costs, and instead base decisions on the marginal costs and marginal revenues
that each alternative entails. We learn in our course that this doctrine biases
companies to leverage what they have put in place to succeed in the past,
instead of guiding them to create the capabilities they’ll need in the future.
If we knew the future would be exactly the same as the past, that approach
would be fine. But if the future’s different—and it almost always is—then it’s
the wrong thing to do.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">This theory addresses the third
question I discuss with my students—how to live a life of integrity (stay out
of jail). Unconsciously, we often employ the marginal cost doctrine in our
personal lives when we choose between right and wrong. A voice in our head
says, “Look, I know that as a general rule, most people shouldn’t do this. But
in this particular extenuating circumstance, just this once, it’s OK.” The
marginal cost of doing something wrong “just this once” always seems alluringly
low. It suckers you in, and you don’t ever look at where that path ultimately
is headed and at the full costs that the choice entails. Justification for
infidelity and dishonesty in all their manifestations lies in the marginal cost
economics of “just this once.”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">I’d like to share a story about how I
came to understand the potential damage of “just this once” in my own life. I
played on the Oxford University varsity basketball team. We worked our tails
off and finished the season undefeated. The guys on the team were the best
friends I’ve ever had in my life. We got to the British equivalent of the NCAA
tournament—and made it to the final four. It turned out the championship game
was scheduled to be played on a Sunday. I had made a personal commitment to God
at age 16 that I would never play ball on Sunday. So I went to the coach and
explained my problem. He was incredulous. My teammates were, too, because I was
the starting center. Every one of the guys on the team came to me and said,
“You’ve got to play. Can’t you break the rule just this one time?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">I’m a deeply religious man, so I went
away and prayed about what I should do. I got a very clear feeling that I
shouldn’t break my commitment—so I didn’t play in the championship game.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">In many ways that was a small
decision—involving one of several thousand Sundays in my life. In theory,
surely I could have crossed over the line just that one time and then not done
it again. But looking back on it, resisting the temptation whose logic was “In
this extenuating circumstance, just this once, it’s OK” has proven to be one of
the most important decisions of my life. Why? My life has been one unending
stream of extenuating circumstances. Had I crossed the line that one time, I
would have done it over and over in the years that followed.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">The lesson I learned from this is
that it’s easier to hold to your principles 100% of the time than it is to hold
to them 98% of the time. If you give in to “just this once,” based on a
marginal cost analysis, as some of my former classmates have done, you’ll
regret where you end up. You’ve got to define for yourself what you stand for
and draw the line in a safe place.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Remember the Importance of Humility</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">I got this insight when I was asked
to teach a class on humility at Harvard College. I asked all the students to
describe the most humble person they knew. One characteristic of these humble
people stood out: They had a high level of self-esteem. They knew who they
were, and they felt good about who they were. We also decided that humility was
defined not by self-deprecating behavior or attitudes but by the esteem with
which you regard others. Good behavior flows naturally from that kind of
humility. For example, you would never steal from someone, because you respect
that person too much. You’d never lie to someone, either.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">It’s crucial to take a sense of
humility into the world. By the time you make it to a top graduate school,
almost all your learning has come from people who are smarter and more
experienced than you: parents, teachers, bosses. But once you’ve finished at Harvard
Business School or any other top academic institution, the vast majority of
people you’ll interact with on a day-to-day basis may not be smarter than you.
And if your attitude is that only smarter people have something to teach you,
your learning opportunities will be very limited. But if you have a humble
eagerness to learn something from everybody, your learning opportunities will
be unlimited. Generally, you can be humble only if you feel really good about
yourself—and you want to help those around you feel really good about
themselves, too. When we see people acting in an abusive, arrogant, or
demeaning manner toward others, their behavior almost always is a symptom of
their lack of self-esteem. They need to put someone else down to feel good about
themselves.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Choose the Right Yardstick</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">This past year I was diagnosed with
cancer and faced the possibility that my life would end sooner than I’d
planned. Thankfully, it now looks as if I’ll be spared. But the experience has
given me important insight into my life.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">I have a pretty clear idea of how my
ideas have generated enormous revenue for companies that have used my research;
I know I’ve had a substantial impact. But as I’ve confronted this disease, it’s
been interesting to see how unimportant that impact is to me now. I’ve
concluded that the metric by which God will assess my life isn’t dollars but
the individual people whose lives I’ve touched.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">I think that’s the way it will work
for us all. Don’t worry about the level of individual prominence you have
achieved; worry about the individuals you have helped become better people.
This is my final recommendation: Think about the metric by which your life will
be judged, and make a resolution to live every day so that in the end, your
life will be judged a success.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Credits <a href="https://hbr.org/2010/07/how-will-you-measure-your-life?utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=hbr&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR1KqfwCIlKR4kFl1FKPWzLHQde9o6K_uGn832KsvlnHzOwEjkXCPDRHIOU&gig_events=socialize.login">Harvard
Business Review</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Manu Rishi Gupthahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16628261943554617736noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3339821117106681620.post-80765020774813646992020-02-01T00:31:00.000+05:302020-02-08T01:35:41.918+05:3010 Commandments for promoters of Listed Companies<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">If You are a promoter of a listed
company and your basic idea is to loot the gullible public by </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/privatizing-profits-and-socializing-losses.asp"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">privatising profits and socialising
losses</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> as recently done by Uber and tried hard by we-work this piece is a waste
of time for you. If not read on…..</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<i><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Google.v</span></i><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/top-wealth-destroyers-a-dozen-lose-over-90-market-value-in-a-year/articleshow/71572994.cms"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">top wealth destroyers in last 2 years</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> and You will deduce that the
behavioral pattern of all companies and their promoters is shockingly
congruent. Malafide intent of promoters has resulted in almost entire market
capitalization being eroded away and gullible minority shareholders left
holding just an entry in their demat statement.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">At least 1-2 friends/acquaintances
send me their portfolios each day for a review and the list of defunct
companies in those, is shockingly long. Thousands of companies have just vanished since
early 90’s and the erstwhile promoters must all be sipping mojitos in some
Caribbean country such as Antigua. A sampler of these is pasted here for
nostalgia. Some names were the darling of markets - Pentamedia graphics, Aftek Infosys, Crest communication.........</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0_HaJ26_X0nnel_kHjkZvzegACbo9BhHUGhYZU7Ce9YwEfXdSvs11wvyhDyUkPoaQBEyorrOz18E6sAcWoIZQtxbNS58e2c0Z3_mtUvRtmLI4rfcSbX8SQO4jBc1Rsoh9XhYBcVI654k/s1600/Manu+Rishi+Guptha+Blog+manurishiguptha.blogspot.com.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="273" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0_HaJ26_X0nnel_kHjkZvzegACbo9BhHUGhYZU7Ce9YwEfXdSvs11wvyhDyUkPoaQBEyorrOz18E6sAcWoIZQtxbNS58e2c0Z3_mtUvRtmLI4rfcSbX8SQO4jBc1Rsoh9XhYBcVI654k/s320/Manu+Rishi+Guptha+Blog+manurishiguptha.blogspot.com.jpeg" width="320" /></a><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In a short life where the vicissitudes
of health, fate or accident could just kill you instantly doing a Houdini on
your minority shareholders, wont take You anywhere. But philosophy of life later
or in some other piece.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">This is not Your Pop’s company<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Even if you own more than 50% of the
company you are responsible for and towards the minority shareholder who has no
access to your operations, books, has no say in management decisions and
sometimes millions of shareholders end up trusting their hard earned money
by investing in your company in the belief that You would do justice to the job
that you are supposed to do. You are a representative of the smallest
shareholder who doesn’t have a voice.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t overdraw Your salary and misuse
Your perks<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">It was shocking to hear way back in
Sep 18 that the </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/apollo-tyres-promoters-compensation-close-to-ceiling/articleshow/66003104.cms?from=mdr"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">promoters of Apollo Tyres were
drawing close to 12 million dollars in salary</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> + perks (upto 300% of the
salary) . Obviously minority shareholders revolted and the stock price tumbled
and never ever recovered from there. More erosion happened in the market
capitalization of Apollo Tyres when investors realized that the promoters were
running a public company like their piggy bank rather than by the loss through their skyhigh salary, despite the muted
cyclical performance QoQ.<br />
<br />
Are You kidding me - Its appalling, when as a minority shareholder I learn that the manager of
my company (call him promoter for the purpose of respect) is drawing more
salary than the base salary of CEO of Google , Apple and Microsoft.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The company is struggling for growth,
costs are increasing and the father son duo are breaking all records while
owning only 41% of the company. Nothing gives them the right to short change
the rest of the 60% shareholders – just because they don’t have a voice.
Obviously the company’s EPS is falling with religious regularity over the last
few years.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">I know of a popular Entrepreneur in India who claims that he hasn't taken a salary hike in 10 years and only draws some 2 Mil USD per annum. Its public knowledge that his electricity bill is 1.3 Mil USD. Isnt it obvious that minority shareholders are unknowingly paying for all his lifestyle and his expenses? </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><b><i>Lesson</i></b> – No one ever gets a second
chance in life and in corporate world unless you are making a movie – life
isn’t a film shoot where you can keep taking a retake unless you achieve a
perfect shot. You f%$# up once you will never be pardoned.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Never take personal holidays in the
garb of an official trip<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">I know a lot many promoters who
travel along with families on company expense. And mostly in the garb of an official
trip. Imagine giving a pro-rata travel subsidy to all shareholders. You can get
away with all this for a while, but one day it will catch up with you because
its just not right. And You and Your share price will be punished.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t load the company with expenses
of personal staff<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Your being at the helm doesn’t give
you a right to seek subsidy for your personal staff expenses from the minority
shareholders. Lead a lifestyle that’s afforded by Your salary that’s approved
by the board and is in public domain. There is a verified story that our Ex Prime Minister Sh. L B Shastri ji personally </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/content/136130/a-pm-paid-sons-used.html"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">paid when family used the official
car</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">
in sharp contrast to today's national political leaders and CEO s and promoters
of listed companies who use the nation and their corporate authority as their
personal piggy bank – and that too shamelessly. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Watch Your words in Public Domain<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">You Gentlemen are the custodians of
the company’s public image and reputation. Your public conduct and character
and any tongue malfunction can have ramifications that are sometimes hard to
fathom. If Paytm was a listed company I would have been very very wary of
buying its common stock and if bought – holding the same after </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/web-edits/paytm-ceos-vijay-shekhar-sharmas-abusive-outburst-reflects-poorly-on-him-and-his-company-4482140/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">the stellar performance of its
founder Vijay Sharma</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Demonstrate benevolence and humility<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">What goes around, comes around is
well known to everyone. But very few can fathom the intensity and quickness of ‘coming
around’. If You are riding a crest of success, you will most certainly see a
trough and a tempest sometime later in Your journey as a promoter. Build reputation
and relationships through benevolence and humility so that the world conspires
to give you support when required. Lehman Brothers was the big daddy when it opposed
the bailout of Bear Sterns in March 2008 when BSC was going down and while
there is very little evidence or data, the rumor has it that Lehman was left alone
when it needed the support a few months later and while Lehman’s assets and
liabilities matched to a great extent, the powers that be – allowed Lehman to
sink while teaching them a lesson.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-reasons-we-should-all-feel-sorry-for-lehmans-ceo-dick-fuld-2015-06-04"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">lifestyle of Dick Fuld</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> would have put God to
shame and when his company was in trouble this CEO who was like a tiger riding
a tiger just couldn’t get off – and neither was he allowed to – by his alleged friends.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t flash your expensive toys and
lifestyle<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In an ideal world the promoter is
really the Chief Servant of the minority shareholders and in good times the
media christens You as the Branson of Your respective country ala Mr. Vijay Mallaya
but don’t sympathise with You when You ever land on thin ice. On the contrary media pulls the carpet under<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>your feet when you
would least expect it. If Mr. Mallaya had kept a low profile during his tough
times, he would have easily come out of his troubles and could have still been
enjoying his envious Villa in tropical Candolim rather than weathering the
biting cold of the Hertfordshire. Does anyone know that Mallaya’s 1 Billion USD
in debt is a fraction of the </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://www.indiaspend.com/top-12-corporate-npas-cost-exchequer-twice-as-much-as-farm-loan-waivers/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">top defaulting companies in India</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">. If only he had postponed
</span><span lang="EN-IN"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/naazneenkarmali/2016/03/09/vijay-mallya-goes-down-partying/#2111c5db5dce">Eminems trip for his 60<sup>th</sup></a> he could have gained some sympathy and some reprieve.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The system and the regulator comes
after You even more harshly when they see a diluted intent. Naresh Goyal of Jet
smartly offloaded his headache to the Govt and the Banks (SBI) and maintained a low
decibel lifestyle and almost took that proverbial Houdini flight recently while on the other hand the <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/company/corporate-trends/how-one-family-rode-the-housing-boom-to-dizzying-heights-and-now-stands-accused-of-a-range-of-financial-crimes/articleshow/71870662.cms">regulators
are still counting cars and houses of the Wadhawan clan ( HDIL and DHFL ). One
hell of a capacity - this Wadhawan family has to create a systemic faultline.</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Lead a frugal meaningful life <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Inspite of being billionaires, all the
founders of Infosys lead a simple inspiring life. Help the society thru genuine
foundations and philanthropy. They talk of values more than the wealth they
have created, they talk of their social responsibility and they don’t hesitate
to call a spade a spade (even at the cost of wealth erosion in stock price)
when they see anything wrong. The analysts have written off Infosys many times
but I have always tanked up on the share when its going thru the seemingly
‘baddest’ time - to my financial advantage. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The culture and character of organisations
that is usually set and left to flourish by the promoters is often unshakable
and its like the </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">stuxnet</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> virus that keeps flowing in the proverbial veins and
arteries of the organisations for infinite periods of time to achieve the end
objective and common compelling goals of the organisations. And that’s why Infy
always emerges stronger from every momentary crisis thereby creating swathes of
loyal shareholders who don’t ditch its stock or the ‘proud part ownership’.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t borrow based on excel sheets
and best case scenario<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">I have professed before (in a lighter
vain) that the biggest disservice to the corporate world has been done by Bill
Gates for making Excel program that allows the new age CFO s and analysts to make
specious assumptions of growth and plot it for tens and tens of years by just
dragging the formula across infinitely convenient columns and make anything
look rosy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The gullible promoters fall for the
elusive growth trap and start expanding to achieve what?? More promoters fail
because of leverage than the ones who are able to manage leverage to their
advantage. <br />
<br />
I knew of a CFO at close quarters who would tell his battery of analysts to
just make up the numbers to borrow from financial institutions thereby putting
both the promoter and the business in harms way. The CFO moved on to meet his
eventual fate of karma etc but the promoter was left holding a cluster of hot
potatoes and an unmanageable debt portfolio.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In this VUCA world and environment –
even if someone is God s gift to mankind, an unknown variable or an unknown
disruption will take the wind out of Your sail and at that time <a href="https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/finance/margin-of-safety-formula/">margin
of safety</a> is what would hold You in good stead rather than being hit by the
train – head-on from which the recovery is impossible. Simply follow what Buffet
says “find a reason not to invest and then find a compelling investment” rather
than the other way round.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t frivolously announce buybacks
to hide Your mess<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">We have seen in Indian markets that
the moment a promoter is caught with his pants down they announce a buy back as a
distraction and diversion (D&D) tactic. Markets are intelligent and now the
investors even more. And D&D will oft be punished brutally and sometimes it
becomes terribly difficult to emerge victorious from that. <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/pc-jeweller-cracks-21-on-buyback-u-turn/articleshow/65004303.cms?from=mdr">PC
Jewellers announced a buyback to skittle away attention from its abysmal corp
governance</a> when it was caught. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Of course it was D&D and the
stock that was the darling of the analysts and traded at some Rs 600 is now
trading at Rs 20, a 96% wealth erosion…..<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Declare dividends as evidence of
performance and real cash<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Only hard cash in the hands of
minority shareholders is an evidence of your performance and intent. The translation
of EBIDTA to PAT is the only real evidence of performance. Don’t hide your mess
in the below the EBIDTA line items. Investors are wise and investors are
unforgiving. Share the company profits with shareholders. Declare dividends to
allow cash to flow to the mute believers in your performance. Cash is tangible
and its rewarded. Promise of just the elusive capital appreciation doesn’t hold
water with today’s well informed investor.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Above all – Don’t ever lie<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">When in doubt – Disclose, has been
Mr. Narayan Murthy’s dharma for the longest period of time and is gospel truth
for corporate conduct. No matter how bad the news is – Disclosure will always
hold You and Your company in good light<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">As we see hundreds of companies that
are trading at abysmally low valuations struggle to emerge from even the realms
of nothingness, some of the top companies where the quality of promoter and
management team is impeccable, continue to outperform the indices and are
rewarded through very rich valuations.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">And Lastly<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Watch the movie – <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowden_(film)">Snowden</a> / <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enemy_of_the_State_(film)">Enemy of the
State</a> <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Rules are tightening and technology
is so advanced that most of us cannot fathom. Surveillance agencies can listen to
every conversation, track every movement, map all spending patterns to draw
conclusions. Basically hiding and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Houdini">doing a Houdini</a> on the
Bankers and Shareholders will become more and more difficult. What the <a href="https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/ed-attaches-rs-204-cr-worth-assets-of-ex-bspl-cmd-singal">MD
of Bhushan Steel recently did</a> like many of his brethren in the past will
become almost impossible as new Govt policies come into effect and whats the
point in hiding in a remote island / country , away from the family, not able
to return with a solace that You have billions stashed somewhere. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">A noble life full of respect and love
from the people around You, cannot be founded on the bedrock of fraud and diluted
intent. When we die ( which we most certainly will – sooner than we think ) we
become a body in a second from Mr. <i>So and So. </i>Remember this and life
will be just fine and world will become a better place.<br /><br />Manu also writes for the <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.in/author/manu-rishi-guptha/" target="_blank">Huffington Post</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />Manu Rishi Gupthahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16628261943554617736noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3339821117106681620.post-59075120422635478602019-10-22T16:53:00.000+05:302019-10-22T16:53:31.681+05:305 Life Lessons to learn from Rana Kapoor of Yes Bank<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">There
isn’t an investor I know who hasn’t got scathed in the Yes Bank carnage. From a
high price of 400 in Aug 2018 it touched 28 in less than 12 months. For easy
math – its was down 94% from its peak in a year and it will have to go up by
1300% just to regain the same top – if it ever does.</span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQmjfh5WC5YnKBlSZKLKwvkeqvA_xafSBdbF2Z87qG_Hx5Hj6Jmi4qdctkfUfjcL8YdmNScqEEKKCwXRlLiw0Fp7m08-IlnUE_QgwITAg4UPYGWwV84DoYD4Sk79MaMqXcRzVTMEaUNi8/s1600/Yes+Bank+Blog+Manu+Rishi+Guptha.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" data-original-height="908" data-original-width="1280" height="141" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQmjfh5WC5YnKBlSZKLKwvkeqvA_xafSBdbF2Z87qG_Hx5Hj6Jmi4qdctkfUfjcL8YdmNScqEEKKCwXRlLiw0Fp7m08-IlnUE_QgwITAg4UPYGWwV84DoYD4Sk79MaMqXcRzVTMEaUNi8/s200/Yes+Bank+Blog+Manu+Rishi+Guptha.jpeg" width="200" /></span></a><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">Much
has been said and written about the bank in magazines and papers and some
Astute and Prolific Journalists such as <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/ASj7dG4ftKY/andy-mukherjee">Andy
Mukherjee</a> of Bloomberg wrote about and predicted the troubles of Yes much
before the meltdown began but this piece is about the philosophy of life and the
specific lessons to be learnt from Mr. Rana Kapoor s leadership and conduct.</span></div>
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">All style and minimal substance<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">Sift
thru the internet and a few websites and one would see that Yes Bank managed to
get almost every award in the banking space. Its alleged greatness was greater
than thou and when the industry and all other banks were showing signs of
slowdown and stress it kept declaring stupendous numbers with the lowest NPA s
in industry (even lower than HDFC bank in many quarters)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">Banking
is a difficult industry. NIMs are 2-5 % in best case which implies – to earn a
margin of 2% you lend an amount X and hope to collect all of it back thru the
life of that loan and if one large account defaults, it can wipe out the
capital of the bank <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">I
kept wondering thru the meteoric rise of the bank – are robots evaluating, disbursing
and collecting loans. If the same kind of employees are working across the
industry how can Yes be an outlier. At its peak <o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Yes
traded at about 6 times book and 50 PE.</span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<i><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">Lesson<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">Businesses
that seem too good to be true are seldom that good. In its zeal to expand and a
soon <a href="https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/wannabe">wanna-be</a>
HDFC, Yes took unmanageable risks and lent out money to every suspicious borrower
(everything is in public domain now - the less said the better) and allegedly
grew remarkably well. But most of its large borrowers had no intention /
sources / business model to pay back. If you are in business or in a job - Aspire
to grow in line or slightly better than the industry, you will be just fine and
the power of compounding will take care of the rest. In a zeal to achieve
stratospheric growth, you not only end up taking unreasonable risks but also
put in jeopardy the existential probability. Greed kills.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">The Business Model and its Conduct<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">All
the readers of this piece would have taken a loan one or the other time in life
and we all know that the .5% processing fees can be negotiated or even waived
off at times. After all processing fees isn’t a fees for any effort or
paperwork (which entails another fee), it’s part of the business model. It is heard that Yes
bank developed an interesting model of charging humongous amounts of processing
fees (in some cases upwards of 8-10% of the loan amount). This processing fees reflected
in qtrly PnLs as fees income / other income etc and showed Yes bank to be a
very intellectually superior bank that could generate such large amounts of
fees as a proportion of its Net Profits. What everyone ignored was the fact
that the relationship managers and senior officers on the field were expanding
the lending book by taking undue risks, in some cases with collusion of the
promoters, charging this large upfront fees that would make the deal look
awesome from a short term perspective, earning hefty bonuses for themselves and
eventually leaving the bank with rotten lemons. If Rana Kapoor was a part of
this scheme, its even worse, if he was not, obviously as the Boss of the bank,
he was distracted fighting his petty battles while losing the war. I would love
to be wrong here but my gut tells me that all these loans would not even have a
decent backing of monetizable securities. Time will tell.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<i><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">Lesson<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">Hire
people not only on the basis of fancy degrees or self-proclaimed past
achievements. Build teams where the team members have superior sense of
responsibility and unquestionable ethics. Senior executives should have as much
knowledge of philosophy and psychology as of the subject matter. For only then
will they remain grounded and steer clear of designs based on the foundations
of greed. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">Banking
industry is rife with examples of executives working on extreme short termism,
earning huge bonuses and leaving a trail of destruction and sometimes
orchestrating the demise of the institution. Does anyone remember <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_S._Fuld_Jr.">Dick Fuld</a>. He
brought down Lehman and still got to keep the bonuses.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">If
You are at the helm and operating and building large organisations, the bonuses
of your key personnel should not be tied to short term paper profits, the
sustainability of which is in question. The incessant pressure of QoQ and YoY
growth will most certainly create a fertile ground for executives to cook
books. And they will.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">Karma<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">It
was terribly unfortunate that Mr. Ashok Kapur was killed in the 26/11 attacks
in Bombay. A bank that was jointly founded by the co brothers Rana and Ashok
then befell to be managed by Rana Kapoor. <span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Obviously
Rana Kapoor didn’t want to give a sliver of board space away to his co-sister. What
was the point in </span><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banking/finance/banking/why-is-shagun-gogia-fighting-yes-banks-rana-kapoor/articleshow/47793511.cms"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">denying the rightful board seat to
Madhu Kapoor and family</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">. </span></span> Rana Kapoor fought tooth and nail to
keep Madhu Kapoor away from the Yes Board. We used to hear about the law of
karma and if we do a misdeed, it will come back to haunt us in our next life.
God perhaps got worried that the present generation in this <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kali_Yuga">kalaguya</a> doesn’t give a damn
about the next life and therefore shortened the turnaround time dramatically. These
days Karma comes around rather swiftly. And in less than a year when the meltdown
started <a href="https://www.moneylife.in/article/rana-kapoors-diamond-holding-in-yes-bank-turns-to-dust-while-insiders-sell-too/58317.html">the
diamonds of Rana Kapoor got withered away at the price of marbles</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<i><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">Lesson<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">We
often forget that when we are <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.in/manu-rishi-guptha/what-my-grandmother-s-death-taught-me-about-how-a-life-is-really-measured_a_23069999/">born
we are a mere 3 odd kilos and when we die we reduce to the same in the ashes
that are left behind</a>. And we cannot take anything along. The amount of time
and energy that Rana Kapoor invested in fighting with his relatives would have
definitely taken a large share of his mind-space and attention, while his professionals ran the bank aground. Yes came to be respected
as a reasonably good, technologically advanced, and a forward looking bank. But
<i>I will have my cake and eat it too </i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>was the undoing that set the seeds of banks
erosion of capital and credibility.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">We
teach our children a simple yet powerful lesson <i>Sharing is Caring</i> but
forget the same ourselves along our lives – and then one day we lose it all or
suddenly die. We all know that our time on this planet is limited but tend to
generally disbelieve this for ourselves while remembering this for everyone
else. And if we ever reflect peacefully, our significance on this ever evolving
planet with millions of years of humanity and over 7 billion of us at any time
on this earth is so negligible that a <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.in/manu-rishi-guptha/the-only-thing-you-need-for-a-truly-blissful-life_a_22103697/">calculation
or real reflection is humbling</a>. So why be greedy and why not truly remember
and imbibe in our personality the famous <a href="https://www.holy-bhagavad-gita.org/chapter/2/verse/71">Chapter 2 , Verse
71 of Bhagwad Gita</a> that says we came empty handed and so shall we leave.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">Debt and the desire to acquire/hoard more<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">Pledging
the entire holding of his stock to make alternate investments became a self
fulfilling prophesy. When the value of the stock tanked, all the fair weather friends
and lenders didn’t blink an eyelid before selling Rana’s stake. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<i><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">Lesson<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">We
all know that debt is death. Debt works 24 hrs relentlessly, whereas factories
and executives and organisations work for limited hrs in a day and take weekends
off. The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory">modern monetary
theory</a> that professes ever expanding debt and the new age entrepreneurs and
managers who take its refuge might not be able to fully fathom the
ramifications of the same. Some of the most successful investors and thinkers
such as <a href="https://www.ai-cio.com/news/warren-buffett-slams-modern-monetary-theory/">Warren
Buffett have rubbished this vehemently</a>. Avoid debt as much as possible. Depreciating
assets and objects of gratification should never be purchased using debt. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">Most
Friends and Well wishers only offer umbrellas when its bright and sunny. The
true umbrellas are seldom found when its pouring. Just remembering this is
enough to keep you grounded, responsible and strategic.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">When in doubt Disclose<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">I am reasonably certain that Rana and the top echelons of Yes knew that the loan book is
far more rotten than what they were disclosing a few qtrs ago. Else why would
the edifice of lies come crashing down just one qtr later when the new CEO took
over. Obviously top guys were riding a tiger that they couldn’t get off without
being eaten (<a href="https://trak.in/tags/business/2009/01/06/satyam-head-raju-admits-fraud-letter-board-directors/">I
remember this line from Satyam’s Ramalinga Raju’s confession in Jan 2009</a>). If
these guys had taken RBI seriously and mustered the courage to come out clean
rather than making up the lower than actual NPA numbers, <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/bad-loans-divergence-yes-bank-tops-among-peers/articleshow/66649780.cms">coming
clean on divergences</a> and apologised and course corrected – which would have
been possible only if they acknowledged the mistake, the markets would have
been kinder. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<i><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">Lesson<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">‘When
in doubt disclose’ - This is what the legendary Sh. NR Narayana Murthy says
about corporate governance. Inspite of all the personal criticism he stood his
ground when he smelt impropriety in a few transactions at Infosys a few years
ago. And I truly respect him for that. <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/ites/when-you-gotta-go-you-gotta-go-former-infosys-board-member-tells-murthy-in-open-letter/articleshow/60169401.cms?from=mdr">Omkar
Goswami came heavily on Mr. Murthy</a> – but then <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.in/manu-rishi-guptha/ex-infosys-board-member-omkar-goswami-s-scathing-open-letter-to-narayana-murthy-is-a-joke_a_23178774/">who
is Omkar Goswami anyway</a>. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">Shareholders,
media and public can pardon a few bad qtrs or a bad year of financial
performance but impropriety and doubt over corporate governance (even if the
net effect of the same is much lesser than bad performance) is brutally punished
and brands can seldom recover from that damage thereby destroying shareholder
wealth permanently. Corporates and Individuals should choose to lose money, if need be, as money
can be recovered easily over time but a shred of reputation if lost never comes
back. What takes a lifetime to build can be destroyed in just a second. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">We
are all born innocent and pure. The vicissitudes of life (everyone has them) can
either derail us from the General Accepted Life Principles of Propriety or keep
us firmly on track and make us want to be the Human Beings, Managers and Owners that we expect others around us to
be like.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">Manu also writes on the <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.in/author/manu-rishi-guptha/" target="_blank">Huffington Post</a><br />Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/manurishiguptha" target="_blank">@manurishiguptha</a></span></div>
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
Manu Rishi Gupthahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16628261943554617736noreply@blogger.com35tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3339821117106681620.post-15509283903742816472019-07-29T18:48:00.000+05:302019-07-29T19:29:02.008+05:30Electric Vehicles – Awesome Potential & Dream 'BUT' Very Distant Reality<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">I
wonder how many readers of this blog have ever used Indian Railways but when I
first saw the water mug (used by Indians to clean their derrière) tied to chain
using a miniature lock – the contraption far heavier than the mug itself, I
wondered, A country where a petty mug needs protection – what’s the future of
our future and who will protect it with which harness or security. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The
answer is a big ‘NO-ONE’.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">This
little example is to set the scene for this piece and hopelessness that
persists because of a generally degenerate attitude of us Indians.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The
Government’s 2025 vision is a thing that dreams are made of. Our economy is
likely to be 5 Trillion USD, we would have sent missions to various planets by
then. And some say, some influential politicians would already have amassed
large tracts of real estate on moon and mars by that time, before anyone-else
got a whiff.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuH1FiVORMk-0351ISkKOdDT5LY5q_28KdESH4pf6VR7AEgfgUWOprWnA32pDUdVra8wp5DPaeYXfTmuZW9aw-_vq7nEogKzwPZ0z4HHv85WWCi0VxQVTGC8i-2GpKTJE_QeWclK6lVbY/s1600/Vision+2025.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="315" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuH1FiVORMk-0351ISkKOdDT5LY5q_28KdESH4pf6VR7AEgfgUWOprWnA32pDUdVra8wp5DPaeYXfTmuZW9aw-_vq7nEogKzwPZ0z4HHv85WWCi0VxQVTGC8i-2GpKTJE_QeWclK6lVbY/s400/Vision+2025.jpeg" width="400" /></a><span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Nothing
shocks me anymore. Bad budget, Irresponsible statements by politicians, the
abject neglect of our beautiful nation by its custodians – Nothing. I have set
my expectations so so low that I am generally happy and satisfied with my
environment but yes I do get surprised more than often.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The
recent <a href="https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/gst-council-meet-tax-on-electric-vehicles-slashed/article28730571.ece"><span style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">reduction of taxation on Electric Vehicles (EV) was one
such moment</span></a> recently.<br />
<br />
Not only was it a dichotomy to the present state of industry and the automobile
sector, it was a reflection of the cluelessness of the ‘powers that be’, making
policies that are likely to have a significant impact on this nation and
eventually on our lives.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The
automobile sales (combination of 2 and 4 wheelers) are down 30-40% in the last
few qtrs., most of the auto plants are now going through planned prolonged
shutdowns and analysts and economists predict hundreds of thousands of people
losing jobs in the automobile industry alone. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The
EV situation is akin to – Doctors planning to prep, a deeply wounded athlete, (who’s
just reached the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emergency_department"><span style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">ER</span></a> with a severe sports injury) for the next
athletic event rather than providing him with the immediate treatment and
putting him on a ventilator to save his life at that instance.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">EVs
are the future – no doubt. And while we are staring at fast depleting fossil
fuels across the globe, the world will have to find alternate sources of
assimilation of energy through solar, nuclear and hydro, but not unless there
is a systemic evolution of infrastructure, culture, attitudes and character of
nations. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">For
EVs to be fully implemented and assimilated into peoples lives – far before the
crude is fully depleted and people still preferring the traditional internal
combustion engines, the governments of various countries esp ‘The’ densely populated
India, a network of charging stations, infrastructure to support, sell, repair
and recycle has to be created, maintained and sustained. It’s a paradigm shift
in the lifecycle of a nation that has to be effected with multiple catalysts
not just a random reduction in sales tax.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">A
nation where a small 500 mts flyover takes forever to build – <a href="https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/majerhat-flyover-collapse-why-kolkata-bridges-keep-falling/316045"><span style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">if it doesn’t fall off during construction ala Calcutta</span></a>
how on earth do we expect the EV infrastructure to take shape/establish in a
nation where everything moves at a snails pace unless 2025 was a misprint in
place of 3025. The idea and vision does solicit an entry into the <a href="https://blog.ted.com/the-audacious-project-one-year-in/"><span style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Audacious Project List</span></a> but then……<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">I
am reminded of the <a href="https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/tejas-express-stolen-headphones-scratched-led-screens/story/252947.html"><span style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">vandalism on the first ever superfast luxury train Tejas</span></a>
where the people in the train destroyed the TV screens and stole anything that
could be ripped apart and stolen and people outside simply practiced their
cricket and bowling skills by throwing stones and breaking the panes.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Approx
2 yrs ago one of the projects that I was overseeing was <a href="http://manurishiguptha.blogspot.com/2017/11/hopelessness-in-gods-own-country.html"><span style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">vandalized by local goons on an alleged assumption of land
encroachment</span></a> (to the extent of .0055 cents approx. equal to the size
of a shirt button). The protectors of their self defined virtuousness damaged property
worth approx. 7 Cr that took 2 more years to rebuild and operationalise while
the bank interest on the entire project kept piling up. All of these guys are
walking scot free and still doing the narebazi. Till the time the corruption and
‘I can get away’ attitude from mind and souls of the citizens isn’t taken out
through swiftly enforceable laws – the future is bleak.<br />
<br />
Now imagine the effort to establish a Pan India network of charging fields,
hard shoulders alongside the freeways and highways and the actual charging
contraption that involves a pole, wire, socket and a network of charging grid
or whatever.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Perhaps
all the unemployed people from the present day automobile industry could be
employed as security guards to protect these charging stations. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Sadly,
where we need a chain and a lock to protect a petty mug inside a train toilet,
we would need a far more robust strategy, execution abilities, set of security
protocols and infrastructure even before we embark on this EV journey.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In
the meanwhile can someone stop dreaming and look at the bleak present state of
liquidity, employment, infrastructure and the massive slowdown that seems to
have gripped the nation and its industry.</span><br />
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Follow manu on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/manurishiguptha" target="_blank">@manurishiguptha</a></span><br />
Manu also writes for <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.in/author/manu-rishi-guptha/" target="_blank">Huffington Post</a></div>
<br />Manu Rishi Gupthahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16628261943554617736noreply@blogger.com22tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3339821117106681620.post-32129669859635742262019-04-15T16:51:00.000+05:302019-04-15T17:12:20.889+05:30Why a NDA loss might actually be good for the Stock Markets, Investors and India<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Markets
seem to have a mind of their own and have historically demonstrated that they
discount the future far ahead in their present values. Perhaps that explains
why Foreign Institutional Investors have pumped in close to 10 Billion USD in
2019 alone whereas they withdrew almost the same in 2018 from Indian markets
and barely invested a net total of 2.6 Billion USD in 3 years (2015 2016 and
2017).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Markets
are almost certain that Mr. Modi will come back with a resounding victory and
obviously for anyone vaguely connected to the markets, one cannot fathom a NDA
loss.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6mQwQ50Rc9zTkjBhw3AQDpwWB2-_jbW77TKOARNRlDtWGbdh43JlG4nQc68vSKNktkGDQMPaHoMsZCcKnM-Dz2qPdW68ErKcVgrUphdXtXKRpLo-X8b83p8cLKLk7YK2_d7Ynef4zzX4/s1600/blog+manu+rishi+guptha+nda+loss.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6mQwQ50Rc9zTkjBhw3AQDpwWB2-_jbW77TKOARNRlDtWGbdh43JlG4nQc68vSKNktkGDQMPaHoMsZCcKnM-Dz2qPdW68ErKcVgrUphdXtXKRpLo-X8b83p8cLKLk7YK2_d7Ynef4zzX4/s320/blog+manu+rishi+guptha+nda+loss.jpeg" width="320" /></a><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">But
hang on! History is a great teacher and I make my argument that an NDA loss
might actually be good for sharp investors and for the economy. When the
obvious doesn’t happen, markets perform better. Lemme explain..<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Stock Markets<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">The
stage had been set in 2004 for a Vajpayee comeback. </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India_Shining"><span style="line-height: 115%;">India was shining</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"> and just to prove this point, it is believed
that close to 500 Cr (approx. 109 Mill USD at that time) was spent by NDA in
2004 and on that historic day of 13 May 2004 as the results started pouring in,
the obvious didn’t happen – markets crashed from a high of 10<sup>th</sup> May
2004 to a low just 7 days later by a whopping 28.4%. That’s some fall in 7 days
for a size of Indian economy. That was the lack of confidence in UPA or
Congress+allies at that time. Yet from the low on 11<sup>th</sup> May 2004 to
the same years high, the markets rose by 69% in just approx. one year. And from
the same low (1292 Nifty on 17 May 2004) went on to rise all the way by 392% by
2008 (to 6357 sometime in early 2008).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">I
still horrifically remember a </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ardhendu_Bhushan_Bardhan"><span style="line-height: 115%;">CPI leader A.B Bardhan</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"> (the moment he realised
that CPI would end up being an important ally of UPA) on national television
saying “to hell with divestment of PSUs and to hell with the economy, and
within minutes the markets were locked in lower circuit. God rest his soul in
peace. He did succeed in causing a serious consternation with his irresponsible
statement on that historic day.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">India
still shone irrespective of the government. And whilst the obvious didn’t
happen in 2004, the investors ended up making tons of money and the wiser ones
who weren’t in love with their stocks and could muster the courage to buy when
India allegedly stopped shining in May 2004 and sell sometime in early 2008
smiled all the way to their banks.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">In
2008 the UPA govt took some stand on the nuclear deal, survived a near death
experience when the now defunct CPI withdrew its support and the general public
at large was not expecting the Manmohan Sigh Govt to scrape thru in the 2009
polls. In so many years nothing happened on the nuclear front, no new reactor
came to be made and nothing changed for the nuclear energy landscape of this
country……………….<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">But
Boy.. +- 4,5 days from 16<sup>th</sup> May 2009 (election results date) the
markets went up by 18% around the result time and eventually up by 50.6% in
that year alone from the lowest point. And 90.3% in the next 5 years till
sometime in 2014.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">When
the obvious doesn’t happen investors make money and governments have little or
no role to play in how the markets and the economy performs.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Achhe_din_aane_waale_hain"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Acchhe Din</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"> started on the 16 May
2014 when Mr. Modi stormed against all odds to become the 14<sup>th</sup> PM of
India. And that year, because he was the obvious choice and in line with
expectations of the nation, the markets rose a mere 7% in +- 4-5 days of the
election results and a mere 66% in subsequent 5 years of his Prime Minister<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ship.<o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">I
have always believed and the same has been historically and statistically
proved that the best prime minister can add 50 basis points to the GDP of a democratic
nation and the worst can at best (with great effort) shave off no more that 50
basis points off the GDP.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Now
just imagine if NDA was to lose this election against the common belief of the
nation, what all opportunities would that scenario throw for the prudent and
the hungry investor.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Real Estate <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Between
2004 and 2008 , people could buy an apartment or a piece of land in the morning
and sell it at a neat profit in the evening. That was the kind of frothiness
that existed in the real estate market. Brokers in Gurgaon roaming around in
antique scooters in 2004 were driving Hummers and Porches by 2008. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">The
global recession in 2008-2009 didn’t help but the real estate kept going up.
The economy progressed at a better than expected rate despite a financial
crisis that, some say, was the worst in 100 years. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Real
estate that was always considered a safe heaven and an asset class giving
guaranteed return bled to death between 2014 and 2019. Some of my friends who
bought prime real estate in Gurgaon and Delhi and Bangalore aren’t able to sell
their assets at 70 cents to a dollar after holding their apartments and real
estate for 5 years.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">The
point is – NDA has been a disaster for the real estate market that has
historically been a safe heaven and some estimates say that the unsold
inventory of apartments at a national level is at approx. 7 years. The top 7
cities have an unsold inventory of approx. 700,000 apartments.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://www.livemint.com/politics/policy/manmohan-singh-vs-narendra-modi-the-real-india-gdp-growth-story-1555034270688.html"><span style="line-height: 115%;">A recent article in the Mint pegs UPA
II to be significantly ahead of NDA II in almost all parameters</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"> in spite of the worst
recession of 2008 and oil at lifetime high during that period. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Obviously
much is left to be desired from the performance of this Govt wrt to real
estate.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Corruption</span></b><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Genetic
mutations (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darwinism">Darwins theory of
evolution</a>) occur over hundreds of years. Character of homo sapiens cant be
changed overnight. India over the last 100 years (reasons unknown) became a
seriously corrupt nation. NDA tried hard to remove corruption overnight -
Stricter policy of Aadhaar, Demonetisation, Watertight rules laid down by <a href="http://www.mca.gov.in/">MOCA</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goods_and_Services_Tax_(India)">GST</a>. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Any
nation across the planet would have hailed these steps as revolutionary and
positively earth/nation shattering. But we poor Indians just couldn’t cope up
with this setback. Majority of the people were not ready to weed out corruption
or stop dealing in cash or deal in real estate without cash. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Result
- : The growth of this nation, Vibrancy in the real estate market (a measure of
national growth) and the common man suffered. And suffered hard. Because no one
knew how to use the digital means and banking effectively. And this inherently
smart and corrupt nation wasn’t ready for this dramatic shift and that’s why
the entire demonetised currency found its way back into the system (as people
figured out ways around this), much to the surprise of the Powers that Be.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Corruption
is the engine of growth for a nation like India and ‘cash economy’ the fuel in
it. NDA tried to remove both in a dramatic manner and displeased the nation.
The preceding governments allowed a certain free run to everyone across the board
(individuals and corporations) and the nation progressed. Cut this fuel supply
and everyone suffers. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">It
is anyone’s guess about the benefits of extolling the virtues of corruption in
a diverse, large and a disorganised country like India.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Jobs<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">This
has become a contentious issue in the last few months. </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/jobs/leaked-data-part-ii-where-indias-jobs-mess-is-most-acute/articleshow/68846924.cms"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Some leaked reports</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"> (authenticity
unconfirmed) pegs India’s joblessness at 45 year high. Have a heart,… this is
bound to happen. The Govt has endeavoured to change the character of the nation
overnight and removed the grease (corruption and cash) that drives the engine.
How can anyone expect the nation to thrive? And perhaps that’s the reason why
most of the citizens of India are roaming around like headless chickens and
putting the </span><span lang="EN-IN"><a href="http://www.mospi.gov.in/national-sample-survey-office-nsso"><span style="line-height: 115%;">NSSO</span></a></span><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"> in a spot because they
released a report that was a true reflection of the state of the nation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Alongwith
the issue of jobs, everyone is talking of the rural distress. We guys living in
urban cities can neither see the distress nor feel it. But speak to an Uber
driver, or a <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ricksawwallah,</i> or a
vegetable vendor – the guys are in trouble. No one is feeling prosperous or
happy. People love Mr. Modi, they say he is a man with a mission and a clear
intent but the distress hasn’t reduced. <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/big-rise-in-farmer-suicides-in-four-states-during-2016-says-ncrb-data-118032300025_1.html">Approx
12000 farmers commit suicide each year</a> because of financial difficulties. For
us urbanites, it’s just a statistic. But what a shame that a nation with its
bedrock of progress and prosperity that was based on agrarian economy is in
shambles. <a href="https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/indias-deepening-farm-crisis-76-farmers-want-to-give-up-farming-shows-study-43728">The
farmers that feed the nation are happy to destroy the crop and give up farming</a>
because selling it to the middle man is more expensive. Forget 12000 suicides –
even a single suicide by any farmer should be a national issue requiring
attention from the topmost echelons of politics and strategy (read niti aayog
or whatever).<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-IN" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">I
just read that the <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/food-inflation-falls-to-lowest-level-since-1991/articleshow/68870152.cms" target="_blank">food inflation is at a 27 year low</a>. Isnt that counter
intuitive – if the population and fuel prices are increasing and area under
cultivation is decreasing, such low inflation only means 2 things – either our
supply chain management has become hyper efficient or the farmer isn’t getting
his due. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">The final Take :<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">If
the obvious happens, which is the NDA win, the markets and the economy isn’t going
anywhere – for Indian stock markets are trading at 28-30 times their earnings
that make the markets one of the most expensive in the world. If at all - these
will come crashing down unexpectedly and against everyone’s wishes when the
euphoria is over. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">But
if a majority of Indians doubt the promise of ache din, and begin to question
the 15 lacs that were to come to our accounts, and the regime actually changes,
the storm in the tea cup might actually bode well for all of us.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Ye
Indians! – figure our where your bets are.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Manu
also writes in the <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.in/author/manu-rishi-guptha/">Huffington post</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;">Earlier articles
that created a flutter…..<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://manurishiguptha.blogspot.com/2019/03/in-defence-of-vijay-mallaya-king-of.html">In
Defence Of Vijay Mallaya – The King of Good Times</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://manurishiguptha.blogspot.com/2018/07/skin-in-game-reform-game-changer-in-mf.html">‘Skin
in the Game Reforms’ – Game changer in the Asset Management World</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-IN" style="line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://manurishiguptha.blogspot.com/2018/01/the-invaluable-role-of-chief-business_12.html">The
Invaluable role of Chief Business Obstructers in the modern corporate world</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://twitter.com/manurishiguptha" target="_blank">Follow Manu on Twitter</a></div>
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Manu Rishi Gupthahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16628261943554617736noreply@blogger.com14