Magic, Illusion or just Trickery – The story of ITC

Quarterly Magic of ITC Numbers

The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist. And looking at the way ITC is managed, it can be said with reasonable certainty -

The greatest trick the ITC is pulling is to convince its shareholders that its board exists and is indeed responsible for the company.

The alarming regularity with which the stock price is manipulated weeks before every quarterly result, the rumours about the demerger, stellar results round the corner, special dividend in the offing and buyback, only to be disappointed quarter after quarter - is nothing short of a movie plot. The retail investors also known as the hopeful romantics within the ITC fraternity, keep buying the stock, while Wealth Managers across the country have created an entirely new and risk-free business model of selling ATM call options month after month and making a killing, as they exactly know where the stock is going - NOWHERE  

Here’s the secret Y’e stupid shareholders of the ITC

ITC will never ever demerge its businesses as the present comfort of the high tide that hides all the executives that are swimming without pants will get exposed. The cash machine that ITC is, through its cigarette business is good enough to keep the party going for a very long time.

And no one likes the party to end isn’t it?

When I wrote this piece some 8 months ago asking some pertinent questions to the board, the least they could have done was to gather some data, do some math and respond with a sound and logical rebuttal or future strategy, especially when thousands of shareholders resonated with my thoughts all over the world, but obviously rebuttals require courage, facts, demonstration of intent and a clear conscience – all of which seem to be missing in ITC.

Can we even begin to imagine if ITC was managed / owned by Mr. Ambani or Mr. Adani how happy we minority shareholders would have been? Or if the representatives of SUUTI, LIC and a few Mutual Funds along-with BAT could discover their spines jointly, and make the management answerable – ITC has the potential to be one of the best companies in India. But alas….

So while the latest investor presentation used the word robust 31 times and growth 41 (the same is missing from actual performance), it has no mention of shareholders, reduction in executive compensation during the pandemic year but they did try and take credit of reducing “controllable” fixed costs. Fixed costs are uncontrollable and that’s why it requires serious executive courage to control them. Controllable Fixed costs? – Are you kidding me?.

At a time when the entire listed corporate world has left shareholders spellbound in the last 15 months, with appreciable reduction in costs, stellar EBITDA margins, efficiency not seen in the last decade, ITC has at best established itself as a mediocre company with a mediocre P&L, poor decision making and afraid of taking any meaningful steps that are value accretive for its shareholders. – 

details later here…..

The talk of a robust dividend yield is akin to shifting money from one pocket to the other because the board doesn’t have the courage to declare a buyback for the fear of losing control and were gleefully diluting the value of minority shareholders till recently, when BAT put an end to equity dilution through issuing stock options in year 2018. Since then, the company has changed its policy and it gives Stock Appreciation Rights (SARs) which entails more cash-outflow for the company. We aren’t sure that the principle of 'High Water Mark' is being followed to ensure that SAR isn’t brought lower to adjust to the stock’s abysmal performance.

Isn’t it surprising that the top management of ITC, despite generous grants of stock over the years, owns less stock than perhaps me and my family and are selling their stock with alarming regularity. So much for the confidence in their own executive abilities. The issue of ESOPs and quick-sale data is available here.

Fun fact : Just top 282 employees of ITC sold shares worth 1024 Cr in the last 3 years. And the top 10 sold shares worth 190 Cr. The real KBC is being played here at the cost of minority shareholders.

SEBI came out with a bold skin in the game reform for the mutual fund managers by   mandating that a minimum of 20% of the compensation of mutual fund managers and other key personnel in an asset management company (AMC) should be in the form of units of the mutual fund schemes they manage.. 

I wrote a recommendation piece about the same some 3 years ago and when I heard of this reform, I was pleasantly chuffed about it. I am proposing 2 more reforms and will write to SEBI soon that : 

a. Companies that don’t have a promoter shouldn’t allow its executives to draw a compensation beyond a pre-defined threshold and all other compensation should only be in form of dividends generated through restricted stock options monetizable only upon end of employment.

b.  The other skin in the game reform for promotor-less companies where the promoter or the KMP has less than 20% stake should definitely have a representation of minority shareholders on the board and that too in the proportion of their stake.

 

That would indeed be another set of ‘skin in the game reforms’ for promoter-less corporations.

If this would’ve been the norm and discipline, one celebrated CEO of an American corporation wouldn’t have been allowed to fly fresh salmon from Norway for lunch in the company’s private jet. The folklore has it that he was terribly fond of Salmon.

But lets get back to the recent stellar quarter of ITC and study the ‘FMCG giant in the making’ narrative:

1.  Companies that make significant growth, report their numbers in absolute numbers and        the ones that enjoy growth on the base effect of extreme underperformance only talk in         percentages.

2.  While Marico (Sales up – 10% y/y, PAT up – 15% y/y), Britannia (Sales up - 13% y/y, PAT up – 33% y/y), and Dabur (Sales up – 10% y/y, PAT up – 17% y/y ) grew at a remarkable pace, ITC sales de-grew by (2%) and PAT de-grew by (15%). ITC has almost become like a few other PSU Banks where “the worst is behind us” and “the future is bright” narrative is being peddled for years, quarter after quarter while the balance sheet at the cost of tax payers needs to be recapitalised ever so frequently and here in the case of ITC, the minority shareholders are underwriting the underperformance.

3.   Further its pertinent to note that a large part of the FMCG growth came from a very very expensive acquisition of Sunrise which means that for every Rs 1 of growth in revenues, the shareholders paid Rs 4.

4. Remove the Sunrise acquisition, and the revenues from Aashirwaad atta (where the EBIDTA margins are negligible) the real growth would be much lower.

5.  “Value Accretive M&A” is a meaningless metric until ITC acquires another company that’s trading at cheaper valuations than itself. And thereby creating some shareholder value. M&A at the cost of free-cash that generates lower ROE than treasury yields is nothing short of financial hara-kiri.

6.  Recently a new kid on the block – Rossari Biotech trading at 80 PE acquired Unitop Chemicals trading at 10 PE (just an example). But ITC is the only generous and philanthropic organisation that itself barely manages to trade at 19 PE but acquired Sunrise at 38 PE. So much for its negotiation ability and size leverage.

7.  ROCE of ITC has been dramatically falling. In just last 5-6 years alone the ROCE has declined from 50% to just 29%.

8.   With a consistently falling EPS and ROCE the cash generation will likely not keep up with the abysmally low shareholder expectation of atleast earning dividends that match treasury yields and ITC will be forced to dip into their cash reserves thereby weakening the only reasonable moat around their balance sheet.

 

Hotels

This division can single handedly bring the entire ITC down. Someone from the industry recently informed me that ITC keeps building hotels because one (deceased now) earlier Chairman liked hotels. Wow that’s some real compelling investment argument to destroy shareholder wealth. ITC hotels hasn’t been able to develop its own distribution network in so many years and relies on Marriott and Preferred for its booking engine and loyalty program. And it talks of creating a world class brand.

Allow the powers that be in the hotel division to raise funds, deal with financial institutions, consider capital an expensive and rare resource and then make investment decisions and only then gloat in the glory of making green hotels and winning global awards. Every investment and every new hotel would then seem like a wasteful expenditure. But then the past Chairman liked hotels……..

If managers don’t have the ability to raise and manage capital and understand the concept of ROCE, then either the managers need to be replaced or the businesses sold off.

Rather than trying to acquire Oberoi hotels (through the present 14% ownership) for the purpose of empire building, ITC should sell their hotels to some global hospitality chain that has the edge of a superior global brand recall and a distribution network. That indeed would be value accretive for shareholders.

All the We-assure and the marketing campaigns that the hotel division indulged in couldn’t prevent an outbreak in the Chennai hotel when the entire hotel had to be shut down. Marketing is good, but gimmicks are misleading especially in the face of the ferocity of Covid-19.

If hospitality was a separate division, the mettle of the managers would have come to fore and perhaps the expression “house of cards” would be exemplified if they would have had to raise working capital through ECLGS, deal with financial institutions, institute meaningful salary cuts and worry about cash to sustain rather than dip in papa’s pocket whenever money runs out.

Can we – the minority shareholders know the equity invested and ROE (return on Equity) only in the Hotel division alone please?

The segment assets of 6,525 Crores (post an approx. 30 yr opportunity cost) tantamounts to approx. equity worth more than approx. Rs. 50,000 crore destroyed in hotel division alone. And we aren’t even talking of Capital Work in Progress that will further erode the shareholder wealth. This money over 30 years with any half-wise capital allocation would have added atleast Rs. 2-3 lac crores (26 – 39 billion USD) in market cap alone

 

FMCG

Agri business grew at 23% for the year but the EBIT that should have grown better or more only grew at 11% resulting in EBIT margin going down from 8% to 7% (Poor operating leverage). Does that mean that there is a possibility that Agri margin is being sacrificed to prop up the margins of FMCG business through transfer pricing tricks thereby misleading shareholders?

Or does this mean that the company has no clue or understanding or internal controls to increase operating leverage??

 

FMCG - Peer Group Comparison

Now if there was a my-baap in ITC these numbers would have been treated like murder – but we have no doubt that the powers that be in the FMCG division would not only have got ample pats on their backs but also huge increments and ESOPS (needless to say – value destructive for minority shareholders) 

 

All Hope isn’t lost

 

While much has been debated about ITC’s strategic decisions on business ventures, capital allocation and performance of the businesses, all hope is not lost as company can alter its approach and enhance shareholder’s value through a few short term and long term initiatives which are presented below –

 

1)  Hotels – While company has created admirable properties across India, The present management neither runs these with any sense of ownership (would have been reflected in the numbers else) nor do they take decisions that are prudent in the interest of shareholders.

 

Due to the evolving dynamics of the industry, hotels are not value accretive as these have very long gestation periods. Further, the pandemic has grounded even the most ardent believers of face-to-face meetings and have compelled them to adopt the ‘new normal’ of Zoom and WFH, and this trend will permanently impair business travel as demand side will dramatically drop.

 

The pandemic provides a great opportunity to sell the hotel division ‘NOW and HERE’ rather than continuously bleed the consolidated B/S and putting good money after bad.

 

If the wishes of the past chairman are so dear, then reimagine the division to make it profitable and figure out WHY (do we exist), HOW (will we prosper) and WHAT (needs to be done).

 

Value Unlocking:

 

a) Demerge the business which will bring financial discipline and bring more accountability as mentioned earlier

Or

 

b) REIT - Develop a REIT structure, divest stake in the business to a global alternate asset manager who is looking to lock capital for a longer period to time. All the owned assets can be transferred to a separate trust and properties could be leased back at an attractive yield. Not only would this make the managers accountable, as they would have to earn to pay the lease, but also this would unlock the shareholder equity to the tune of approx. Rs. 25,000 crores and thereby become an efficient Operating Company (OpCo)

Or

 

c) Sell all the owned assets to strategic players i.e., global hotel chains to focus on Cigarette and FMCG business.  

Or

 

d) Become a Property Company (PropCo) and get some of the best global operators to manage hotels

 

2)  FMCG – Building FMCG companies from scratch can take years. The company has done a commendable job in building some widely recognized brands by channelizing its strong distribution network. However, ITC has high volume and low margin businesses, and products are largely ‘Me too’. If the company were to achieve Rs. 100,000 crores target by 2030 (Vision statement) the top-line of FMCG should grow by ~23% in the face of cigarette sales degrowing by 5% YOY over the decade which is much higher than the present 13% growth rate. But I am sure ITC is managed by magicians and this growth wont be hard to achieve. We have faith in the magical powers of the executives but pls don’t behave like a minister who recently, famously said – “don’t go into numbers and don’t do math” have faith.

 

Tatas, Ambani and Damani are all getting into D2C and private labels to create an edge. Use the power of your network to take advantage of the large fortune at the bottom of the pyramid rather than wasting time selling some expensive chocolate that will remain unprofitable. If ITC doesn’t evolve or acquire (not at Sunrise valuations) some new-age businesses, it faces an existential crisis in the modern well connected e-world.

 

Strategy:

 

a)  Product Innovation/Creation of category: Stop being a me-too company through Yipee and Sunfeast biscuit. Create a new game-changing category.

 

Tell me the second man on the Moon and the Everest – no one knows them. And ITC should stop being a distant No.2. Unless ITC gets its mojo to create and sustain a category, it has no future.

 

b)  Spotting trends early: While market share gradually shifts from unorganized to organized, it is a multi-year process and this seldom results in high margins. Few of the interesting areas that look promising are Frozen food market, Adult Health & Nutraceuticals, Cosmeceuticals etc.

 

c)   Geographical Diversification: ITC is ITC – don’t allow regional players such as  Adani Wilmar to weed you out. Get your act together or you wont exist.

 

d)  Contract Manufacturing:  Demonstrate the power of the ITC brand to outsource a large %age of products to contract manufacturers and free up capital. ITCs incessant desire to do all-by-myself is hurting its shareholders.

 

3)  IT Services -  Demonstrate the ability to become the Larsen and Toubro Infotech or stop pretending to be an IT company and allow the super-efficient Board to be distracted. There is no way that ITC Infotech can ever become anything meaningful or it would have already become.

 

4) Cigarettes and general – As the capex requirements are complete, the company should return the money to the shareholders in form of buybacks. Rs. 60,000 crores buyback can be planned for next 6 years, utilizing existing bank balances and the rest through borrowing. Theoretically, if the earnings yield is more than the post-tax borrowing of the company, the company should do a buyback until such time that palatable debt is reached. Debt magnifies RoEs and buyback reduces the equity base, both done today maximizes returns for shareholders.

 

But that would mean sacrificing a bit of control to BAT – but Boards that mean well for the company and its shareholders think beyond the virtues of selfishness and control freakery.

 

Overall -

 

1) Selling Non-core assets – Small business should be sold or shut down. Stakes held in other hotel chains should be sold at optimal valuation as of yesterday.

 

2) Shareholder Communication – Company of this size should have analyst concalls, provide definitive guidance on the numbers. (the way Infosys does)

 

3) CAPEX Guidance – Company of this size should declare its capex plans so that it can be built in pricing of financial models.

 

And above all -

 

4) Appoint Minority Shareholder Directors – The company should onboard an eminent small shareholder director with a relevant experience so as to amplify the importance of retail shareholders as well.

A family can never be fatherless. And if it is – the minority shareholder should become the deemed one.

When someone posts an opinion or an article on ITC, the emotion and response that it generates is overwhelming. If the true meaning of Stockholm Syndrome needs to be understood, delve deep into the mind of an ITC shareholder – That’s the Enigma of ITC. 

During my hospital visit to look upon someone some years ago, I learnt that the ECG monitor of a dead person is just a straight line. ITC stock price graph reminds me of that line I saw years ago because the price is more stable and straighter than that line.

Long live ITC…..

Twitter https://twitter.com/manurishiguptha

Hope amidst Virus, Vaccines, Quarantine and Quaintness

The reality of Covid doesn’t really hit you till it hits you. March of 2020 through Sep Oct while Covid ravaged thru the planet, India seemingly remained unscathed - more so when the same was analysed in relation to the large population base.

As early as May 2020 the street vendors were back in business selling paani poori and the food appreciating Indian population thronged back to restaurants and bars and pubs by October and large part of Indian population took refuge of the Pent-up desires and most of the service providers thought that just wearing a glove (all day without changing those) solved for the situation at hand. The powers that be were quick to take credit of flattening the proverbial curve and at one instance the RBI governor even derived an analogy of flattening the virus curve by bending it like Beckham and almost took credit for it.

The abject neglect of virus lessons from around the world can be interpreted as the amazing power of human resilience and the ability of homo-sapiens to move on from one crisis to another and survive and thrive OR sheer plain stupidity of ignoring expert advice by subject matter experts, thereby putting themselves and fellow humans in peril.

The Second Wave has hit our country in a manner that no one had anticipated and the shock and awe as a result is unfathomable. The horrific stories, loss of lives, unavailability of resources (medicines, oxygen, hospital beds and even cremation slots) has traumatized the entire nation.

If you read a lot you become hypochondriac, and if you don’t you catch the virus and if you are unlucky you get it nevertheless to one’s surprise.

My experiences of going  through the virus curve

Till April 2021 my family and I managed to exercise all restraint, follow protocols, wear a mask and avoided all unnecessary travel.

Zealously we ensured that all elders were vaccinated  at the first available opportunity and I took my first vaccine shot the day I became eligible on the 1 April. Maybe to be slyly fooled by the vaccine itself on the April Fools Day.

Of Vaccines..

I took the vaccine (COVAXIN) as directed – (first day first show) and by the end of the day my energy levels started dropping and within 24 hrs of it, I was devoid of any energy – not even able to get up from the bed. Doctors advised that the body’s immune response was developing and a few Sr. Dr. classmates from school advised me against popping paracetamols as suppression of inflammation and pain through consumption of prophylactics blunts the immune response.

Take a paracetamol only if you must (when temp crosses 102F). Human body is a complex eco system where it repairs itself, fights and does everything to survive.

During the time I was bedridden and worried, I followed the basic common-sense to keep myself hydrated with lots of coconut water, usual vitamins.

Zinc, Vit C and Vit D are known to create some sort of a protective shield and boosts the body’s immune response. There is a theory that derides the use of external vitamins as body has this immense ability to assimilate and process everything consumed to everything it needs. And that explains how 2 different saplings of different fruits or vegetables can turn out to be big fruit and vegetable bearing trees with just water poured during their lifecycle. But we must still take external vitamins to supplement the deficiency.

8 days after the vaccine when I was still not feeling perfect, I started sensing a loss of smell and got a RTPCR test done to be declared positive on April 9^th – 9^th day of the first vaccine shot.

Of Virus..

When you hear stories on social media you empathise, but when you get hit you get damn scared esp when you have a 3 Yr old daughter and a 70 Yr old mother at home.

So while blaming the vaccine was an obvious response, Covaxin is a dead virus that is supposed to mimic the live one – when it enters Your body and activates body’s immune response and creates antibodies. I actually thought naughtily that since I wasn’t chanting jai Shree Ram or Har Har Modiji , the dead virus became alive to attack me. Perhaps that was the message to be taken from Mr. Modi s foto on the vaccine certificate.

But jokes apart, vaccines comprise of dead, non infectious disease that’s injected, or mRNA (synthetic mutated RiboNucleic Acid) used by JnJ and Moderna, that mimic the disease and allows the body’s immune response to develop the virus fighting antibodies.

We immediately got tests done for the rest of the family and the responsibility of 3 girls (daughter mom and wifey) was a worry. All came positive with viral CT values around 30 while I was the only one with 21.

Higher the CT value lower the Viral load – remember below 24 you need to be worried and above 24 you need to know the protocols that are available for immediate intervention.

Apollo247.com seems to have their act in place. Doctors all over the country are available online within minutes. The consultation fees is less than Rs.800 on average and most of these Docs are seemingly nice and patient and are available for 3 days on chat after the initial consultation even though I didn’t get a response when I tried to chat on the 3^rd day.

Don’t panic at all. It’s a naughty and a deadly virus but still a virus and behaves like a viral fever with difficult symptoms. Eventually it will weaken and remain amongst us like so many other viral flus. Its a collective fight against a common enemy. If we follow protocols and advice, we will win else we will only make the enemy stronger (allow it to mutate to become more virulent and infectious)

Children have a very different and believably stronger immune profile and are generally recommended Zincovit syrup 5-10 mg and advice to monitor their temperature and oxygen saturation. Again – Human body knows how to fight and to survive. Don’t blunt its response by getting worried if fever is mildly high. In most cases children will recover and will fight this devilish virus in no time.

Adults need to keep an eye on fever and oxygen saturation levels. The state of the country at present demands that we remain cautious and stay at home.

Oxymeters just like masks were an almost unknown underappreciated resource. Every home must now have compressed oxygen can, oxymeter, sanitizing sprays and quarantine protocols in mind (incase the need arises)

Of Quarantine..

My wife wakes up daily at 0530 and in the last 10 years of our marriage, I haven’t been able to figure out what she does till 0730. She uses a nomenclature “Me-Time”. Google search does throw a definion. And it took Covid and Quarantine to understand how therapeutic Me-Time is how every individual must find ones Mojo in a bit of it everyday.

My heart is full of gratitude that the severity of my situation was manageable at home that allowed me to write this note but quarantine was perhaps the most zen time I have had in the last 45 years. Almost 2 weeks of solitude, abundance of Me-Time, importance of being self reliant (washing, cleaning, working in a confined space) while being on the edge of a health situation that could have been potentially fatal.

If you have more than a bedroom, try and make the sunniest room as the quarantine room. It allows you to  recharge your batteries with sun and removes the gloom. Sun is worshipped as a God - not without a reason.

Ensure that You have adequate supplies of your clothes, detergents of various kinds and a spray sanitiser (that allows you to exchange goods / supplies with family, when required using this sanitiser).

Move a small desk and chair to enable you to take calls, use laptop and create some sort of a workstation.

Besides access to internet, kindle and your fav books, ensure you have your fav Bluetooth speaker or Alexa to indulge in a bit of pleasant music as and when required. I never got a chance to appreciate symphonies but developed an addiction of Beethoven, Mozart, Vivaldi and Bach in these 2 weeks. Believe You me – its really de-stressing

Due to lack of movement, mild muscle atrophy can set in without you knowing at all. Ensure you do some basic exercises each day. A few Situps, pushups, cruches and surya namaskar is all that’s required to keep the blood flow going and the body in shape.

Ensure that you follow a routine of sleeping and waking up in time. Don’t allow an iota of gloom creep in. And irrespective of whether you are working or not, follow a routine to dress up like on a usual day (shoes et all). Wear your daily perfume even if your sense of smell has gone for a toss. This really helps in giving a sense of purpose esp when there is gloom and doom all around.

Watch as little covid data and news as possible. You are already in a situation and you cant do a damn about anything. Keep your spirits up and if you are active on social media try and help people in need by connecting the needy to the resources. Altruism produces all the 4 most vital hormones at the same time that in-itself heals and motivates you even more.

We are all a product of our thoughts that lead to action and that leads to character. Good thoughts are like cocaine. These give you a high. Think and remain positive.

Connect with all lost friends whom who have always wanted to be in touch. Connect with memories that bring a smile on your face and twinkle in your eyes. Remember that we are all creatures of our memories. No one knows what the future holds and stop fretting about it. You are just a spec in the scheme of things of 4 billion years of life, 4 million years of humanity and 8 billion of us floating around at this time – All of us thinking that we will make a difference. No one gives a damn.

Moral compass is a vague concept that isn’t empirically defined. Make an effort to calibrate that. Calibration of ambitions, ethics, morality, right-wrong, relationships can only be done when you have time to think, be quiet and seek answers to questions that you have never sought before. And you don’t need a Britannica for that. All you need is an acceptance that you are seeking and you shall find.

If possible set a target of learning something (the lowest hanging fruit) that you always wanted but never found time. I learnt a skill that I have been meaning to learn for 20 years but couldn’t. I read every article and many books on the subject and ensured that I reached a level of conversational competence in that subject. This was hugely gratifying.

Allow your mind to acknowledge and accept that This too shall pass or You will pass away. No one cares, nothing matters. Ikigainess and lightness if sought is always almost granted.

Of Quaintness..

The modern day life is all about continuously driveling and this has reduced our ability to stop and pause and achieve a state of shunyata. Ability to empty ones mind of all thoughts, desires even if momentarily - is an amazing feeling. Most of us living today might not get this opportunity and I pray – should not!. But if you do encounter an opportunity to stare at quaintness, make the most of it. Explore the virtues of Maun Vrat and its benefits.  

Fearlessness is an almost impossible virtue to achieve. FOMO, Peer Pressure, Social Obligations are the drags and headwinds that no one wants yet we get sucked into these. Jot down on a piece of paper that you can stick on your desk that really defines all your needs. And You’ll be surprised at the outcome esp. when you are in a forced quarantine. One really needs far lesser than what we imagine or anticipate.

Life is very very short and very beautiful don’t waste it with the boundaries and shackles of the deadly sins.

And lastly start appreciating your wife’s Me-Time for she is in a state of Nirvana that you are seeking and still struggling to find. Gratitude allows you to free up of your mental shackle of deprivation and external unfairness.

Follow manu on twitter

manurishiguptha.com

The Standout Winner of the 'Amazing 2020'

Depair and Pessimism was abound and doomsday declared by almost the entire humanity in March 2020. People involved with stock markets, most of whom had fading memories of March 2000 and Oct 2008 were in utter disbelief and majority of the fund managers with less than 10 years in business couldn’t believe that markets could make 2-3 days of downward circuits and March 2020 would remain etched in the memory of humanity for a long time.

But the year has been phenomenal in every aspect of measurement and fathom and 2020 might go down in history as one of the best years of the century and here is my argument in continuation to a piece that I wrote a few months ago ‘Corona May Be The Biggest Blessing In Disguise for Humanity’, …..

1. Humans wished well for everyone else on the planet – Such a far cry from the erstwhile world order where ethnicity, religions and beliefs were the divisive catalysts.
2. Global Medical Fraternity came together to share data and research and a slew of vaccines were made with great proven efficacy in just less than 9 months – pertinent to mention that only 7 vaccines were ever successfully produced in the last 100 years.
3. Altruism got redefined by the frontline Covid Warriors across the planet. These noble souls that form the medical fraternity worked for days without any rest, put their lives in danger, hundreds lost lives but still held fort for the greater common good of humanity. Our heads must bow down in deepest debt of gratitude for them.
4. Families found solace and enhanced emotional connect amongst and within each other and started respecting the virtues of looking inwards. The joy of spending time while acknowledging and appreciating what we do for each other (often taken for granted) has been a virtuous re-discovery.
5. Friends for a season or a reason lost significance and we longed only for true friends for a lifetime and rekindled the lost connects and relationships that were always strong and reliable but had lost sheen because of the natural efflux of time.
6. The struggle by all people trying to connect digitally through skype and webex and failing miserably over the last 2 decades, came to an end with the newfound frictionless experience provided by ZOOM. Never ever in the history has a noun become a verb in such short time. Even Google took a whole lot longer to become a verb.
7. The struggle ordained by executives wearing their ill-fitting suits and soiled tie knots that hadn’t been ever untied and taking early morning flights at wee hours to travel across the country and globe to attend futile meetings, mostly non productive a the cost of the corporate profits – came to an end and sales calls and meetings could just be acceptably attended by one and all. But for an accidental camera-direction malfunction (that became global news instantly to the benefit of lockdowned populace longing for amusement), just a boxer with a shirt and tie - almost became the globally accepted attire as long as the camera didn’t capture it.
8. Homemakers unapologetically discovered guinea pigs within their families by experimenting with exotic cuisines without the option to their partners to give any honest feedback about their culinary skills, but on a serious note discovered the orgasmic joy of cooking and experimenting with gastronomy. I personally leant the fine art of making shushi and some of my friends who also happen to be members of the mutual appreciation club believe that I can probably give competition to Sukiyabashi Jiro
9. Mark Zukerberg and Steve Jobs are legends who changed the world but another personality trait of theirs, of an entire life wearing similar clothes became a fashion trend. Most of us have found the amazing virtues of minimalism where we could consciously differentiate between our needs and wants and could discover virtues of ikigai style of living and conduct and thereby decluttering our lives.
10. Contrary to the pursuit of materialism and proving a point to someone around us, humans learnt that health is the real wealth. The suddenness of the possibility of kicking the bucket made us all realise that we and only we are responsible for how we treat ourselves and our body that’s the temple of our existence. People are exercising more, eating less and are generally demonstrating gratitude towards simple things such as good health.

But the winner is none of all this….

The winner of this year gone by, is human resilience and adaptability that makes us homo-sapiens a truly advanced and evolved creation of God that adapts itself to changing circumstances, is audaciously hopeful of a brighter future, demonstrates grace in adversity and above all can overcome all vicissitudes that are thrown towards us.

A rotten lemon came by in the garb of 2020 and the humanity made the best lemonade.

What lies ahead

1. More tolerance and appreciation of all the things around us. The bounty of nature and respect for mother earth.
2. Bitcoin lovers will be able to buy their Bugattis
3. The stock market lovers will continue to believe that there is no bubble and that Nifty PE of 40 and over is very justified because quality is never expensive and one cannot overpay for quality.
4. Indian gene pool has proven itself to be the most superior – let there be no doubt. The control of the pandemic and dramatic flattening of the curve isn’t because of any amazing managerial, political or medical superiority. Our peninsula seems to be producing the most intelligent and most resilient homo sapiens. Survival of the fittest stands proved.
5. IMHO the Indian street food, Pani Pooris and Chana Bhaturas (cooked in suspicious conditions of  hygiene) might have built the strongest immunity for Indians over the last 100 years.
6. India is likely to emerge many shades stronger for the respect that it has garnered over the last few years. Our rapidly advancing economic, social and political clout will make us emerge into a force to reckon with while China seems to have spread itself terribly thin because of its misadventures (border, virus, currency manipulation, mysterious disappearance of dissenters) on various fronts.
7. Meaningful affiliations and alliances with India is no longer an option but a necessity for the G7 nations
8. As deep-rooted corruption ebbs away slowly albeit steadily, India’s friction points, ease of doing business, infrastructure will all dramatically improve catalysing a steep uptick in GDP. 5 Tr $ by 2025 might be a distant dream but 10 Trillion by 2030 looks achievable.
9. Travel and Tourism Industry ( from the present 7 million inbound and 50 million outbound ) is set to see a resurgence like never before. Imagine the demand uptick when these 50 million outbound Indians decide to discover the virtues and under-appreciated tourist treasures within India.
10. The coming decade undoubtedly belongs to India and we will see it achieving its colloquial adage ‘the golden bird’ all over again

Our responsibilities as a citizen

Kennedy said – ‘Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country’ – As responsible citizens if each one of us just resolves (just one resolve) to stay away from any form of corruption, corruption through diluted intent, thought, deed - at every level, and not fan it by resigning to the demands of the system. Stop maintaining neutrality in the times of moral crisis, this itself will remove dozens and dozens of friction points from the system that’s presently known to be sluggish and inefficient and will eventually bump up our GDP, national profitability and global stature by hundreds of basis points.

Happy New Year, God Bless You and God Bless India. 

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